# Super El Niño intensifies, threatening global health and ag

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/2026-super-el-nio-forecast
> Updated: 2026-09-11T11:09:39.000Z. Sources: 1293. Developments: 167.

The 2026–27 Super El Niño is intensifying, with the federal Climate Prediction Center reporting a 90 percent chance of a ‘very strong’ El Niño this fall and winter, and a 75 percent chance of it becoming the strongest on record. The event has recorded the fastest rise in the Relative Niño 3.4 indicator ever observed.

In South America, the phenomenon is creating a north-south divide in solar irradiance; northern regions are seeing sunnier conditions, while persistent cloud cover has reduced solar irradiance in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. In Chile, rare August snowstorms in the Atacama Desert have caused potential losses for solar PV assets, alongside severe rainfall and flooding in other regions.

Agricultural impacts are expanding. In Bolivia, while high soil moisture reserves (70-80%) provide a foundation for the summer crop campaign, experts warn that above-normal rainfall poses risks of flooding, loss of planted area, and increased pests. Commodity volatility persists, with Arabica coffee prices hitting six-and-a-half-month highs due to Brazilian harvest delays, and cocoa prices exceeding $6,300 per ton following flooding in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Regional emergency preparations are intensifying. In Colombia, the UNGRD has allocated $38,900 million to bolster operational and military capacities. In Uruguay, President Yamandú Orsi is coordinating financial and logistical support for preventive infrastructure. In Argentina, provincial governments in Chaco and San Juan are implementing contingency protocols, while a collective environmental injunction in Córdoba seeks to mandate urgent hydraulic works to mitigate flooding risks.

## Claims

- The probability of a very strong El Niño (exceeding 2°C) between October and December has increased to 95%. (disputed by 4 sources)
- The current El Niño event is expected to be the strongest since the 19th century. (corroborated by 29 sources)
- The study was published in the journal Science. (corroborated by 26 sources)
- El Niño events are currently 36% to 37% stronger than in the pre-industrial era. (corroborated by 26 sources)
- Researchers used geochemical measurements from Galapagos corals to reconstruct sea surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years. (corroborated by 24 sources)
- The total number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise to 274 million, a 22 % increase. (corroborated by 22 sources)
- El Niño could push an additional nearly 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year. (corroborated by 21 sources)
- The year 2027 is very likely to become the warmest year on record. (corroborated by 20 sources)
- Southern Africa, South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute food insecurity. (corroborated by 19 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-11: El Niño strengthens, impacting global weather and solar energy

A record-strengthening El Niño is shifting global weather patterns, causing solar irradiance divides in South America and impacting precipitation forecasts in the United States.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-strengthens-impacting-global-weather-and-solar-energy

### 2026-09-11: El Niño forecast impacts Bolivian summer crop campaign

El Niño is expected to bring above-normal rainfall to Bolivia, offering high production potential but risking flooding and crop damage in areas with poor soil drainage.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecast-impacts-bolivian-summer-crop-campaign

### 2026-09-09: El Niño phenomenon triggers regional emergency preparations

Authorities in Argentina, Uruguay, and Colombia are scaling up emergency preparations and infrastructure maintenance to mitigate the risks of flooding and extreme weather caused by the El Niño phenomenon.

20 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-preparedness-efforts-increase-in-argentina-and-uruguay

### 2026-09-08: El Niño threatens global coffee and cocoa markets

El Niño threatens global coffee and cocoa markets, with rising prices driven by harvest delays in Brazil and flooding in West Africa.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-threatens-global-coffee-and-cocoa-markets

### 2026-08-31: El Niño strength drives uncertain winter forecasts across US

A strong El Niño cycle is driving uncertain winter weather forecasts across the US, with potential for warmer, drier conditions in Montana and varying impacts in Colorado and the Southwest.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-strength-drives-uncertain-winter-forecasts-across-us

### 2026-08-31: El Niño drives global commodity price spikes and food inflation risks

El Niño is driving global commodity price spikes in cocoa, sugar, and coffee, while threatening to increase Brazilian food inflation by up to 9.5% by 2027. Embrapa has proposed 163 measures to mitigate risks.

20 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-drives-up-prices-for-cocoa-coffee-and-sugar

### 2026-08-30: El Niño strength reaches thousand-year high, research shows

University of Michigan researchers found that modern El Niño events are stronger than any recorded in the last thousand years, driven by parallel increases in global temperatures.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-strength-reaches-thousand-year-high-research-shows

### 2026-08-28: El Niño phenomenon prompts winter weather uncertainty

A strong El Niño phenomenon is driving meteorological speculation about winter weather, with three main scenarios ranging from mild and rainy to potential polar vortex instability.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-phenomenon-prompts-winter-weather-uncertainty

### 2026-08-27: Latin America faces severe climate risks from El Niño and heavy rains

Latin American countries face severe climate risks from El Niño, with millions in Peru at risk of floods and droughts, five deaths reported in Caracas due to rain, and urgent mitigation efforts in Guatemala and

19 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peru-faces-high-risk-of-floods-and-droughts-due-to-el-nio

### 2026-08-27: El Niño intensity increases by 37% due to climate change

A University of Michigan study published in Science shows El Niño intensity has increased by up to 37% since the pre-industrial era, driven by human-caused climate change and coral data from the Galápagos.

116 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-intensity-increases-by-40-due-to-climate-change

### 2026-08-27: El Niño intensity reaches 1,000-year high due to warming

Recent El Niño events are the strongest in 1,000 years due to global warming, potentially leading to a milder, wetter winter across much of Europe.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-intensity-reaches-1000-year-high-due-to-warming

### 2026-08-25: Super El Niño threatens significant global weather shifts in 2026-2027

A powerful Super El Niño is expected for the 2026-2027 season, with a 90% probability of high intensity, potentially impacting global weather and European winter patterns.

9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-phenomenon-shows-signs-of-significant-strengthening

### 2026-08-24: El Niño phenomenon poses significant health risks

The El Niño phenomenon increases risks for cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal issues due to dehydration and rising temperatures, particularly for vulnerable populations.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-phenomenon-poses-significant-health-risks

### 2026-08-22: El Niño intensifies, driving droughts and wildfires globally

An intensifying El Niño is driving severe weather disruptions, including droughts in Sri Lanka and widespread wildfires in Indonesia.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-intensifies-driving-droughts-and-wildfires-globally

### 2026-08-20: El Niño intensification threatens record global temperatures and extreme weather

A powerful El Niño event is developing, with experts warning it could be the strongest in a century and potentially make 2027 the hottest year on record, causing global weather extremes.

227 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-20262027-could-be-one-of-the-most-intense-on-record

### 2026-08-19: El Niño threatens Vietnam with drought and water shortages

Strong El Niño conditions are expected to cause warmer temperatures and severe drought in Vietnam, potentially leaving 107,000 Mekong Delta households without domestic water and threatening vast agricultural's.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-threatens-vietnam-with-drought-and-water-shortages

### 2026-08-18: El Niño increases financial risks for German companies

The El Niño climate phenomenon is increasing financial risks for German companies, impacting liquidity, supply chains, and commodity prices through 2027.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-increases-financial-risks-for-german-companies

### 2026-08-17: El Niño and extreme heat trigger agricultural crises across Latin America

El Niño and extreme heat are causing severe agricultural crises across Latin America, threatening crops and livestock in Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Chile while reducing yields in Spain.

10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/guatemala-agricultural-land-faces-96-rainfall-deficit-warning

### 2026-08-16: Peru municipalities fail to execute El Niño prevention budgets

Peru's Contraloría warns that 317 municipalities have executed less than 40% of budgets intended to mitigate El Niño risks, with some regions and national entities showing zero or minimal progress.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peru-municipalities-fail-to-execute-el-nio-prevention-budgets

### 2026-08-16: El Niño strengthens with potential for historic intensity and global weather impacts

A strengthening El Niño, potentially one of the strongest since 1950, is expected to persist into 2027, bringing risks of extreme heat, drought, and tropical storms to the Americas and affecting global weather.

100 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/enfen-warns-el-nio-costero-could-remain-strong-through-2027

### 2026-08-13: El Niño intensifies with 95% chance of very strong event in 2026

NOAA reports a 95% chance of a very strong El Niño by late 2026. Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia are already facing severe weather, including droughts, floods, and water scarcity emergencies.

37 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peru-declares-emergency-in-600-municipalities-due-to-el-nio

### 2026-08-13: El Niño forecast predicts strong weather shifts globally

Experts forecast a very strong El Niño to arrive this fall, while Papua New Guinea has already begun shortening school hours to mitigate extreme heat and water shortages.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecast-predicts-strong-weather-shifts-globally

### 2026-08-13: Super El Niño intensification threatens European autumn and winter weather

A strengthening Super El Niño in the tropical Pacific may lead to warmer, wetter autumn and winter weather across much of Europe due to altered atmospheric circulation and moisture patterns.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-intensification-threatens-european-autumn-and-winter-weather

### 2026-08-11: Peru prepares for economic and logistical impacts of El Niño

Peru prepares for an intense El Niño event, which threatens the textile industry, cotton crops, and small business stability while prompting humanitarian aid for high Andean communities.

9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/gamarra-textile-businesses-face-s600-million-impact-from-warm-weather

### 2026-08-11: El Niño triggers heavy rain and flooding risks in Argentina and Uruguay

The El Niño phenomenon is causing widespread weather instability across Argentina and Uruguay, bringing risks of extreme rainfall, flooding, and severe storms to the Litoral and Mesopotamian regions.

11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mendoza-weather-forecast-predicts-rain-and-significant-temperature-drop

### 2026-08-11: Super El Nino intensifies, threatening global weather and Thai rice production

A rapidly intensifying 2026 Super El Nino threatens global weather patterns and could cause a 15% drop in Thai rice production, resulting in nearly $2 billion in economic losses.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nino-intensifies-threatening-global-weather-and-thai-rice-production

### 2026-08-10: Pacific Ocean Super El Niño on track to become strongest on record

A record-breaking Super El Niño is developing in the Pacific, with temperatures projected to peak at 4.1°C above average in December, potentially causing global weather extremes and flooding.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-projected-to-reach-record-breaking-intensity

### 2026-08-09: Puno faces severe drought and El Niño threats to agriculture

Drought and the El Niño phenomenon threaten the food security of 1.3 million people in Puno, Peru, endangering 99% of crops and critical high-Andean livestock populations.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/puno-faces-severe-drought-and-el-nio-threats-to-agriculture

### 2026-08-09: Oceanic phenomena El Niño and IOD to influence winter weather

The simultaneous development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a strengthening Super El Niño may disrupt global weather patterns and atmospheric currents through the 2026/2027 winter.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/oceanic-phenomena-el-nio-and-iod-to-influence-winter-weather

### 2026-08-05: El Niño heat drives marine warming and threatens Peru's agriculture

El Niño has raised Pacific sea temps up to 5.4 °C, driving 36 °C air heat, threatening Peru's anchoveta fishery and mango/palta crops, while authorities in Peru, Argentina, and Ecuador deploy resources and warn

14 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-lambayeque-region-faces-extreme-winter-heat-threatening-mango-and-avocado-crops

### 2026-08-05: African Nations Brace for Strong 2026 El Niño Flood Risks

NOAA forecasts a very strong 2026‑27 El Niño, prompting Compassion International and Uganda’s meteorological department to urge early flood preparedness across Africa.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/african-nations-brace-for-strong-2026-el-nio-flood-risks

### 2026-08-05: Piura officials warn delayed El Niño flood defenses threaten residents

Peruvian deputy Eduardo Castillo warns unfinished flood defenses in Piura risk severe El Niño damage, while a new study urges using community knowledge to improve flood‑risk management.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/piura-officials-warn-delayed-el-nio-flood-defenses-threaten-residents

### 2026-08-05: El Niño 2026‑2027 could push 49 million into acute hunger

An 81 % chance very strong El Niño 2026‑27 could add ~49 million to acute hunger (total 274 million), with 83 % spikes in Central America and 75 % in Southern Africa; jobs in Caribbean at risk; WMO warns peak +

84 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-sets-record-as-global-temperatures-accelerate

### 2026-08-04: El Niño outlook prompts guidance for farmers in Argentina and Peru

El Niño forecasts lead Argentine and Peruvian officials to advise farmers on timing, crop choices and irrigation as rains arrive later and below normal levels.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-outlook-prompts-guidance-for-farmers-in-argentina-and-peru

### 2026-08-04: Indonesia faces intensified drought and wildfire risk as El Niño strengthens

El Niño intensifies, prompting BMKG forecasts of dry weather across Indonesia, a 30‑60‑day rainless spell in Ciayumajakuning, over 5,000 fire hotspots, and a surge in Cirebon salt production.

60 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/indonesias-bmkg-says-2026-el-nio-will-be-milder-than-1997-urges-planting-adjustments

### 2026-08-02: El Niño threatens Amazon region and spurs artificial‑cloud geoengineering study

Geoengineering models aim to dim El Niño, while forecasts warn the phenomenon could raise Amazon temperatures up to 3 °C, cut rainfall, and threaten the Manaus economy.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-threatens-amazon-region-and-spurs-artificialcloud-geoengineering-study

### 2026-08-02: El Niño drives agricultural challenges in the UK and Panama

A predicted ‘Super El Niño’ may alter UK winter weather and livestock commodity prices, while in Panama it brings drought, heat and higher input costs, threatening crops and water supplies.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-drives-agricultural-challenges-in-the-uk-and-panama

### 2026-08-02: El Niño threatens copper output in Chile, Peru, Zambia and DRC

A record‑strong El Niño, likely the most intense in 150 years, is flooding Chile and Peru while drought‑straining Zambia and the DRC, curbing copper output and tightening global supply, with prices projected to

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-threatens-copper-output-in-chile-peru-zambia-and-drc

### 2026-08-02: Thailand Faces Potential Super El Niño Drought Through 2027

Thai officials warn a possible Super El Niño from late 2026‑early 2027 could bring hotter, drier conditions, stressing water supplies and agriculture, with an 81 % chance of a strong event.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/thailand-faces-potential-super-el-nio-drought-through-2027

### 2026-08-01: UN warns strengthening El Niño threatens food security and extreme weather

A record‑strong 2026‑27 El Niño, with a 97 % chance to persist, threatens extreme weather, pushes 16 million Latin Americans into food insecurity, raises global food prices up to 9 % and worsens employment for

31 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/bridge-deterioration-threatens-transport-in-campeche-mexico-and-lambayeque-peru

### 2026-07-31: El Niño crisis threatens fisheries and marine wildlife in Ilo, Peru

El Niño has warmed Ilo’s waters, disrupting fisheries and prompting the removal of 99 dead marine animals, raising ecological and health concerns.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-crisis-threatens-fisheries-and-marine-wildlife-in-ilo-peru

### 2026-07-31: El Niño drives extreme weather threats in Hong Kong and San Diego

El Niño may produce super‑typhoons in Hong Kong and severe winter floods, fire risk, and big waves in San Diego, prompting city‑wide preparedness measures.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-drives-extreme-weather-threats-in-hong-kong-and-san-diego

### 2026-07-31: El Nino threatens Australian and South American agriculture

El Nino raises concerns for Australian and South American farmers, with soil‑moisture gaps in NSW and altered jet‑stream patterns delaying planting in Brazil and Argentina.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nino-threatens-australian-and-south-american-agriculture

### 2026-07-31: Peru's new government confronts El Niño climate emergency and tight fiscal space

Peru's new administration must tackle the El Niño emergency and limited fiscal headroom, requiring swift climate‑risk planning and disciplined budgeting in its first 100 days.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-new-government-confronts-el-nio-climate-emergency-and-tight-fiscal-space

### 2026-07-30: Super El Niño threatens global agriculture, food prices and insurance costs

A premature Super El Niño is forecast to last into 2027, bringing milder winters to Canada, drought to Australia and Southeast Asia, and higher food, insurance and tourism costs worldwide.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-threatens-global-agriculture-food-prices-and-insurance-costs

### 2026-07-29: Ecuador and Peru ramp up measures as El Niño threatens schools and rivers

Ecuador and Peru are preparing for an intensified El Niño, with Ecuador allocating $600 M for school safeguards and Peru accelerating river‑dredging to protect lives.

9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ecuador-and-peru-ramp-up-measures-as-el-nio-threatens-schools-and-rivers

### 2026-07-29: Panama Faces Hotter, Drier August‑October 2026 as El Niño Intensifies

Panama’s IMHPA forecasts August‑October 2026 temperatures 2‑4 °C above normal and 20‑45 % less rain in most areas, while El Niño intensifies, bringing drought risk to central provinces and excess rain to parts

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/panama-faces-hotter-drier-augustoctober-2026-as-el-nio-intensifies

### 2026-07-27: El Niño forecast spurs alerts and preparedness measures across Latin America

NOAA forecasts an 81 % chance of a very strong El Niño for Oct‑Dec 2026/27; Argentina, Brazil, Honduras and others issue storm, heat and flood alerts, while companies get a mitigation guide and 95 000 Hondurans

41 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecasts-signal-severe-climate-risks-for-brazil-through-2027

### 2026-07-27: Record-Breaking El Niño Threatens African Economies

A record‑breaking El Niño may become the strongest on record, pushing global temps higher and costing Africa $10‑20 bn in GDP losses, sparking migration and fiscal strain.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/record-breaking-el-nio-threatens-african-economies

### 2026-07-27: 2026 Super El Niño and Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Global Food Harvest

A projected super El Niño and a geopolitical grain export disruption are converging in 2026, raising global food price risks and prompting U.S. households to boost long‑term food storage.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-super-el-nio-and-geopolitical-tensions-threaten-global-food-harvest

### 2026-07-26: El Niño returns, models warn of abnormal weather impacts

El Niño has returned, driving sea‑surface temperatures 3‑4 °C above normal and prompting models to warn of stronger European heatwaves, heightened Mediterranean fire risk and a weakened Arctic polar vortex that

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-returns-models-warn-of-abnormal-weather-impacts

### 2026-07-25: Strong El Niño threatens global inflation and emerging‑market growth

Deutsche Bank warns a strong El Niño could spike food, energy and shipping costs, raising global inflation, while emerging markets like India face lower monsoon rains and tighter monetary policy.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/strong-el-nio-threatens-global-inflation-and-emergingmarket-growth

### 2026-07-24: Super-El Niño could push up food prices in Germany

NOAA flags a strong Super‑El Niño for 2026‑27; expected global extreme weather could tighten crop supplies and lift food prices in Germany.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-could-push-up-food-prices-in-germany

### 2026-07-24: El Niño forecasts warn of colder winters in Louisiana and water shortages in Vietnam

El Niño may bring colder winters to Louisiana and heightened drought risk, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion in Vietnam in 2026‑27.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecasts-warn-of-colder-winters-in-louisiana-and-water-shortages-in-vietnam

### 2026-07-23: JPMorgan warns super El Niño could boost global inflation

JPMorgan warns a likely super El Niño, combined with oil‑price spikes, could raise global inflation by up to 0.3 pp, hitting emerging markets hardest and pushing food price inflation to 1.3‑1.5 pp.

11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecasts-raise-risk-of-higher-global-inflation

### 2026-07-22: El Niño forces Australian infrastructure upgrades and Panama Canal shipping surcharges

A strong El Niño is set to intensify heat and drought in Australia, driving infrastructure upgrades, while reduced Panama Canal water levels have led carriers to impose new surcharges and limit bookings.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forces-australian-infrastructure-upgrades-and-panama-canal-shipping-surcharges

### 2026-07-22: El Niño predicted to become strongest event in decades by 2026‑27

Climate agencies warn that El Niño may become the strongest on record by late 2026, with up to 97 % probability of very strong conditions and global extreme‑weather impacts.

12 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-projected-to-reach-strongtovery-strong-intensity-by-late-2026early-2027

### 2026-07-21: El Niño threatens agriculture, fisheries and water resources in Peru and Argentina

El Niño is poised to cut Peru’s fish output by 31%, threaten Tacna’s olive harvest, cause potato losses in Cañete, spark flood risks in Arequipa, and prompt water‑resource warnings in Argentina’s Gran Chaco.

11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-farmers-confront-severe-crop-losses-as-el-nio-intensifies

### 2026-07-21: Ecuador and Peru issue heat warnings as temperatures peak amid El Niño

Ecuador and Peru have issued heat warnings, forecasting up to 33 °C in Ecuador and 36 °C in parts of Peru as El Niño intensifies, raising health and environmental concerns.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ecuador-and-peru-issue-heat-warnings-as-temperatures-peak-amid-el-nio

### 2026-07-20: Peru launches AlertaMinedu app for schools to report El Niño risks

Peru's Education Ministry rolled out the AlertaMinedu app in Piura for schools to report El Niño hazards, but regional officials say budget limits may restrict needed preventive work.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peru-launches-alertaminedu-app-for-schools-to-report-el-nio-risks

### 2026-07-18: Severe July Floods Ravage Nogales, Sonora, Killing One and Displacing Residents

Heavy July rains flooded Nogales, Sonora, killing one, rescuing several people and a dog, and prompting a state emergency response with cross‑border impacts.

38 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-puno-and-piura-push-for-el-nio-preparedness-amid-low-funding-execution

### 2026-07-18: Peru's coastal capital Lima endures record 72-night heat wave amid El Niño Costero

Lima and Callao have endured a record 72 nights of extreme heat due to El Niño Costero, with temperatures 5‑6 °C above normal; Senamhi warns the heat will continue into 2027 and urges protective measures.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-coastal-capital-lima-endures-record-72-night-heat-wave-amid-el-nio-costero

### 2026-07-18: Super El Niño threatens global food prices and UK agriculture

A strong El Niño may lift global food prices by up to 15.8 % and cut agricultural output 14.3 %, sparking drought in India and higher fish prices in the UK.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-threatens-global-food-prices-and-uk-agriculture

### 2026-07-18: Super El Niño set to drive atypical autumn and winter weather across Europe 2026‑27

A Super El Niño, likely one of the strongest on record, is expected to warm autumn 2026‑27 across Europe while also raising the chance of polar‑vortex weakening and heavy snowfall in the north‑west and central

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-to-drive-unprecedented-autumn-and-winter-weather-across-europe

### 2026-07-16: El Niño forces marine bird migration and animal deaths along Peru's coast

El Niño‑driven sea warming pushed anchovies south, prompting seabirds and marine mammals to migrate to Peru’s piers and causing over 2,000 animal deaths on Ancash beaches; authorities warn against feeding or c-

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forces-marine-bird-migration-and-animal-deaths-along-perus-coast

### 2026-07-16: El Niño risk heightens for Malawi and global food markets

El Niño threatens Malawi’s economic recovery with higher food prices and export losses, while a possible super El Niño could lift global food commodity prices by up to 15% and cause price shocks through 2028.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-risk-heightens-for-malawi-and-global-food-markets

### 2026-07-15: Julio Velarde warns El Niño will hit Peru’s economy as he receives top Lima honor

Peru’s central bank chief Julio Velarde, honored with Lima’s Gran Cruz, warned El Niño will depress fisheries and agriculture, potentially slowing GDP despite low inflation.

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-central-bank-governor-julio-velarde-warns-el-nio-will-hit-economy

### 2026-07-15: Peru's economy slows in May as El Niño hits fishing and manufacturing

Peru's May GDP growth slowed to 1.8% amid El Niño‑driven drops in fishing (‑73%) and manufacturing (‑10.7%). Employment rose, but 308 k remain unemployed in Lima.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-economy-slows-in-may-as-el-nio-hits-fishing-and-manufacturing

### 2026-07-15: Peru's fruit exports hit by El Niño drop, seek growth in camu camu market

Peru's mandarin exports fell 43% due to El Niño, while camu camu sales rose to $1.7 million, highlighting climate impacts and a shift toward higher‑value fruit products.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-fruit-exports-hit-by-el-nio-drop-seek-growth-in-camu-camu-market

### 2026-07-15: El Niño forecasts threaten water security in Davao and Sri Lanka

El Niño warnings in the Philippines and Sri Lanka warn of drought, prompting water‑source diversification in Davao and urging early preparation in Sri Lanka.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecasts-threaten-water-security-in-davao-and-sri-lanka

### 2026-07-14: El Niño triggers widespread prevention measures across South America and beyond

South American governments and the UN are rolling out extensive emergency plans and funding to curb the expected floods, droughts and heatwaves from a projected strong El Niño.

34 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/un-readies-100-million-emergency-fund-for-el-nio-threat

### 2026-07-14: Marine cloud brightening study shows potential to weaken El Niño

A study finds marine cloud brightening could damp super El Niños, while Panama Canal preps for reduced water levels due to the phenomenon.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-spurs-geoengineering-study-and-prompts-panama-canal-draft-limits

### 2026-07-14: Hungary braces for intensified heatwaves as super El Niño looms

Hungary sees longer, hotter heatwaves and heavier rains, while a looming hyper El Niño could bring record precipitation to Europe; scientists discuss experimental cloud‑brightening to mitigate the event.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/hungary-faces-record-rainfall-as-hyperel-nio-looms

### 2026-07-13: Peru's coastal regions endure extended heatwave as temperatures soar above winter norms

Peru's coastal cities face a prolonged heatwave, with Lima/Callao enduring 70 nights of temperatures 5‑6 °C above normal and forecasts of daytime highs up to 34 °C, prompting health alerts.

7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-central-coast-to-see-hotter-daytime-temperatures-in-july

### 2026-07-13: El Niño threatens floods, disease and food insecurity across East Africa and Asia

El Niño is set to peak late 2026, putting Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan at high risk of floods, disease and food shortages, while the UN prepares $100 million in emergency funds.

22 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/un-relief-chief-warns-el-nio-will-intensify-global-crises

### 2026-07-13: Super El Niño threatens US travel with widespread disruptions through winter

NOAA warns a record‑strength El Niño could hit by fall, persisting through winter and disrupting US travel; NASA satellites see rising sea‑surface height indicating deep ocean heat similar to the 1997 event.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-threatens-us-travel-with-widespread-disruptions-through-winter

### 2026-07-12: Peru's INDECI flags 189 jungle districts at high risk of landslides and floods

INDECI warned that 189 Peruvian jungle districts are at very high or high risk of landslides and floods, threatening over 5 million people; authorities are urged to prepare evacuation routes and reinforce homes

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-indeci-flags-189-jungle-districts-at-high-risk-of-landslides-and-floods

### 2026-07-12: Peru steps up coastal flood defenses as El Niño threatens heavy rains

Peru’s Chiclayo and La Libertad regions identify over 240 flood‑risk points and launch budget audits as El Niño threatens heavy rains, aiming to secure funds and improve river‑clearing measures.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peru-steps-up-coastal-flood-defenses-as-el-nio-threatens-heavy-rains

### 2026-07-11: Peru's Paracas Coast Sees Thousands of Sea Lions Dead, Prompting Environmental Probe

Over a thousand sea lions have been found dead in Peru's Paracas National Reserve, prompting an environmental investigation amid warming seas and disease concerns.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/perus-paracas-coast-sees-thousands-of-sea-lions-dead-prompting-environmental-probe

### 2026-07-11: Germany Braces for Potential Frost as Record‑Strong El Niño Peaks

A record‑strong El Niño may disturb the polar vortex, bringing possible frost and snow to Germany this winter, though milder outcomes are also likely.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/germany-braces-for-potential-frost-as-recordstrong-el-nio-peaks

### 2026-07-11: Hyper‑El Niño poised to unleash extreme heat and heavy rains across Europe

A record‑breaking Hyper‑El Niño is set to bring extreme Pacific warming, prompting hotter, milder conditions and significantly increased rainfall across Europe, especially Hungary’s Carpathian Basin.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/hyperel-nio-poised-to-unleash-extreme-heat-and-heavy-rains-across-europe

### 2026-07-11: El Niño disrupts fisheries and weather patterns across the Pacific

A strong El Niño has halted Peru's anchovy fishery, reduced Indian mackerel, boosted California tuna, and altered storm patterns, causing floods in some Pacific islands and drought in others.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-disrupts-fisheries-and-weather-patterns-across-the-pacific

### 2026-07-10: Super El Niño threatens global food prices through 2028

A strong 2026‑27 El Niño, with up to an 81 % chance of being very strong, could lift global food prices by 15.8 % and keep inflation high through 2028, amid war‑driven supply strains; NOAA, Goldman Sachs and UN

29 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/super-el-nio-threatens-global-food-prices-as-scientists-weigh-geoengineering-fix

### 2026-07-10: Peru's El Niño Costero drives heat surge and health warnings

El Niño Costero pushes Lima temperatures to 29 °C, boosting UV exposure and prompting health alerts for allergies, dengue risk and mental‑health concerns.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-drives-heightened-health-risks-across-the-americas

### 2026-07-10: Peru's coastal regions ramp up defenses and face fishing losses as El Niño looms

Peru's Piura, Lima and other coastal areas launch flood defenses, while Pisco fishermen suffer lower catches; La Libertad municipalities miss emergency budgets amid El Niño warnings.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/northern-peru-ramps-up-infrastructure-safeguards-ahead-of-potential-el-nio

### 2026-07-09: NOAA forecasts 81% chance of very strong El Niño in late 2026

NOAA gives an 81 % chance of a very strong El Niño in Oct‑Dec 2026, likely the strongest since 1950. In Brazil, the South faces flood risk, while the North/Northeast may see severe drought, heat and fire, end‑r

63 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nino-projected-as-strongest-in-75-years-shaping-global-weather-through-2027

### 2026-07-09: Panama health ministry issues heat‑stroke precautions ahead of El Niño heat wave

Panama's health ministry urges frequent water, shade, light clothing and warns of heat‑related illness as El Niño brings hotter, drier weather through July‑December 2026.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/panama-reports-49-pertussis-cases-across-nine-health-regions

### 2026-07-09: Peruvian coast sees mass seabird deaths linked to El Niño conditions

Dead pelicans, guanayes and Humboldt penguins washed ashore in Peru’s Huarmey and Chilca, blamed on El Niño‑driven fish scarcity and raising health and economic worries.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peruvian-coast-sees-mass-seabird-deaths-linked-to-el-nio-conditions

### 2026-07-08: El Niño forecast drives drought and fire readiness plans in Australia and New Zealand

A strong El Niño is projected to bring hotter, drier conditions to Australia and New Zealand, prompting staged drought and fire preparedness in Australia and adaptive measures such as destocking and irrigation

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-forecast-drives-drought-and-fire-readiness-plans-in-australia-and-new-zealand

### 2026-07-07: El Niño forecasted as very strong, 81% chance of being one of the biggest since 1950

NOAA/CPC see an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño by Oct‑Dec 2026, possibly the strongest since 1950, with 97% odds it will last into early 2027, affecting weather worldwide and agricultural markets.

65 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-forecast-predicts-one-of-the-strongest-el-nio-events-on-record

### 2026-07-07: Windhoek braces for potential El Niño‑driven drought as scientists explore cloud‑brightening mitigation

Windhoek prepares for a possible El Niño‑triggered drought while scientists demonstrate that marine cloud brightening could neutralize super El Niño events in models.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/windhoek-braces-for-potential-el-niodriven-drought-as-scientists-explore-cloudbrightening-mitigation

### 2026-07-07: Australia sees record June rains as short‑term weather overrides El Niño

Australia experienced record June rains as warm oceans, frontal systems and Rossby waves produced heavy rainfall, despite El Niño and a positive SAM.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/australia-sees-record-june-rains-as-shortterm-weather-overrides-el-nio

### 2026-07-06: Spain heatwave kills 150 as El Niño intensifies global climate risks

A Spanish heatwave in July 2026 killed over 150 people and sparked large forest fires, while the WMO warned that a strengthening El Niño will heighten extreme‑weather risks globally.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spain-heatwave-kills-150-as-el-nio-intensifies-global-climate-risks

### 2026-07-05: El Niño causes widespread marine bird mortality along Ecuador and Peru coasts

El Niño‑driven warm seas have caused mass deaths of marine birds along Ecuador and Peru’s coasts, as fish like anchoveta move away, leading to starvation of species such as boobies and pelicans.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-causes-widespread-marine-bird-mortality-along-ecuador-and-peru-coasts

### 2026-07-05: Panama braces for strong El Niño with reduced rains and soaring temperatures

Panama’s IMHPA predicts a strong El Niño will cut rains by up to 55% and raise temperatures 1‑3 °C through late 2026, threatening water supplies and hydro‑electric power.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/panama-braces-for-stronger-el-nio-as-heat-extremes-surge-across-europe-and-the-americas

### 2026-07-04: Europe likely to see milder winter as cold Atlantic anomaly and Super El Niño develop

Cold Atlantic anomaly and a strong Super El Niño may drive high pressure over Europe, leading to a milder-than‑average winter, while affecting pressure patterns in the US and Canada.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/europe-likely-to-see-milder-winter-as-cold-atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nio-develop

### 2026-07-04: El Nino set to intensify, raising risk of extreme weather worldwide

WMO warns a rapidly strengthening El Nino will heighten global heat, drought, rain and flood risks, prompting an unprecedented UN climate response.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nino-set-to-intensify-raising-risk-of-extreme-weather-worldwide

### 2026-07-03: Piura Regional Government Delays Humanitarian Aid Distribution Amid Flood Emergency

CGR audit shows Piura region delivered just 4 % of S/ 794,760 in flood aid, with poor warehouse conditions and delayed distribution threatening affected residents.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/piura-regional-government-delays-humanitarian-aid-distribution-amid-flood-emergency

### 2026-07-03: World Meteorological Organization warns of strong El Niño developing July‑September 2026

WMO forecasts a strong El Niño in July‑September 2026, warning of heightened heat, drought and flood risks worldwide and urging preparedness.

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/wmo-warns-of-strong-el-nio-driving-extreme-weather-worldwide

### 2026-07-03: El Niño expected to bring strong heat to Germany this summer

NOAA confirmed El Niño’s return and the WMO warned of a strong summer event, raising the chance of extended heatwaves in Germany and extreme weather worldwide.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-expected-to-bring-strong-heat-to-germany-this-summer

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Cite as: Super El Niño intensifies, threatening global health and ag. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/2026-super-el-nio-forecast