# Argentina 2026-27 grain outlook and crop shifts

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/argentinaparaguay-2026-harvest-outlook
> Updated: 2026-09-13T14:30:58.000Z. Sources: 77. Developments: 28.

The 2025/26 Argentine grain season saw corn shipments reach 23 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, overtaking soybeans for the first time since 2021. While corn production was projected at a record 71.5 million tonnes, the outlook for the 2026/27 cycle suggests a shift in crop preferences. Projections from the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR) indicate maize acreage may decrease by 7.3%, primarily in the north, with that area transitioning to soybean cultivation.

As of mid-September 2026, the 2026/27 maize planting season has progressed to 5.5% of the projected 8.4 million hectares sown, representing a weekly increase of 4 percentage points and placing the campaign 1.7 percentage points ahead of the previous year. Concurrently, the 2025/26 corn harvest is nearing completion, having reached 96.9% of the suitable area.

Soybean outlooks for 2026/27 focus on efficiency. Technical analysis by NEOGEN identifies a 34 percent national productivity gap between current and potential yields. Climate factors remain a critical variable; the AgroENSO platform, developed by CONICET and INTA, indicates that El Niño conditions are expected to persist, potentially impacting corn, soybean, and wheat yields. Farmers are advised to utilize improved management and technology to mitigate this variability.

Sunflower planting previously reached 19.3 percent of its 3 million hectare target, though recent rains in Santa Fe and water excesses in Entre Ríos necessitated replanting or caused delays. Wheat sowing for the 2026 cycle concluded at 6.5 million hectares, with 90.8% of the area reporting ‘adequate to optimal’ water conditions.

## Claims

- The National Maize‑Tortilla Agreement was signed last year between tortilla producers and the Mexican federal government. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Only about 2,000 tortilla shops are enrolled in the program out of roughly 130,000 nationwide. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- The original target of a 5 % reduction in tortilla prices was abandoned. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Tortilla prices have risen by 1–2 pesos per kilogram, with increases of 18–22 pesos in the Mexico City metropolitan area. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Tortilla producers claim the government has not provided credit lines or preferential corn prices as promised. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Sergio Jarquín Muñoz said officials are slow or ignore commitments under the agreement. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- The agreement was intended to stabilize tortilla prices. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Tortilla producers plan to send a joint letter to President Claudia Sheinbaum demanding concrete action. (corroborated by 2 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-13: USDA grain reports and Argentina corn planting updates

USDA grain reports have cooled market optimism following smaller-than-expected corn production cuts, while Argentina begins its 2026/27 corn planting season with 5.5% of area already sown.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/usda-grain-reports-and-argentina-corn-planting-updates

### 2026-09-04: South American agriculture: Soybean trends and climate impacts

Agricultural sectors in Paraguay and Argentina report shifting soybean trends, including a production rebound in Paraguay's Chaco and a focus on closing productivity gaps in Argentina amid El Niño conditions.

14 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-begins-202627-maize-planting-and-soybean-efficiency-drive

### 2026-08-27: Argentina agricultural report: Wheat sowing concludes as moisture improves

Argentina's wheat sowing is complete, with improved soil moisture boosting yield expectations. Sunflower planting is underway, while corn harvesting has reached 88% of the suitable area.

7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-agricultural-report-wheat-sowing-concludes-as-moisture-improves

### 2026-08-18: Argentina agriculture sees record yields and wheat supply constraints

Argentina's agricultural sector sees record grain production in Entre Ríos while the wheat market faces tight supplies and rising prices for high-quality varieties.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-agriculture-sees-record-yields-and-wheat-supply-constraints

### 2026-08-13: Argentina soybean area projected to expand as maize acreage declines

Argentine producers are shifting toward soybeans for the 2026/27 cycle, with maize area projected to drop by 7.3% as farmers hedge against market volatility and rising costs.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-soybean-area-projected-to-expand-as-maize-acreage-declines

### 2026-08-07: Argentina wheat planting reaches 99% as sunflower crops expand

Argentina's wheat planting is nearly complete at 99%, though excess water in the south has slowed progress. Sunflower planting is surging in the north, while 7.2 million tons of wheat remain uncommercialized.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-wheat-planting-reaches-99-as-sunflower-crops-expand

### 2026-07-31: Argentina's 2026/27 grain outlook shows rising margins and disease risk

Argentina's 2026/27 grain margins rise sharply, but El Niño‑driven disease risk prompts targeted fungicide advice for wheat and barley.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-202627-grain-outlook-shows-rising-margins-and-disease-risk

### 2026-07-29: Corn Supply Challenges and Emerging Maritime Ethanol Market

Argentina's record corn harvest is delayed by wet weather, while the U.S. corn industry eyes maritime ethanol fuel, which could add billions of bushels to global demand.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/corn-supply-challenges-and-emerging-maritime-ethanol-market

### 2026-07-22: South American Grain Harvests Surge as Corn, Soy and Wheat Reach Record Levels

Record corn harvests in Brazil and Argentina, historic soy yields in Acre, near‑complete wheat sowing in Argentina, and a 30 % jump in Paraguay wheat exports highlight a booming South American grain sector.

10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-corn-harvest-reaches-record-high-paraguay-wheat-exports-jump-30

### 2026-07-21: Soybean prices surge above 500,000 pesos per ton in Rosario

Soybean prices in Argentina's Rosario market rose above 500,000 pesos per tonne, spurred by export‑rights suspension and strong U.S. demand, while soy dominated local grain trading.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/soybean-prices-surge-above-500000-pesos-per-ton-in-rosario

### 2026-07-18: Pampa Energía approves $2.7 bn urea plant in Bahía Blanca

Pampa Energía approved a US$2.7 bn urea plant in Bahía Blanca, set to become Latin America’s largest, creating 3,500 construction jobs and 300 permanent positions, and aiming to generate about US$1 bn annually,

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-falls-to-third-in-global-soybean-milling-capacity-as-agro-sector-looks-to-rebound

### 2026-07-17: Argentina's wheat price gap widens against Brazil amid large stock build‑up

Argentina's wheat price is 15%‑26% below Brazil's, with a large surplus of up to 8 million tonnes, while La Pampa's sowing area rose to 247,000 ha thanks to June rains.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-wheat-price-gap-widens-against-brazil-amid-large-stock-buildup

### 2026-07-11: Argentina's oilseed plants at 90% capacity, barley sowing at 68% of goal

Argentina's oilseed capacity hits 90% as Paraguayan soy imports boost milling, while barley planting reaches 68% of its 2026/27 target, though some regions lag due to wet soils.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-oilseed-plants-at-90-capacity-barley-sowing-at-68-of-goal

### 2026-07-09: Argentina's corn overtakes soy as top export grain amid delayed soybean sales

Argentina’s corn exports lead in H1 2026, overtaking soy as soy sales lag at 40 % of the crop, while wheat sales stay cautious and harvest totals remain strong.

10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-soy-harvest-reaches-501-mt-as-farmers-delay-sales-despite-higher-prices

### 2026-07-03: Argentina's soybean harvest reaches historic levels as wheat sowing stalls in Entre Ríos

Argentina's soybean harvest sets new records while wheat sowing in Entre Ríos lags due to humidity, with flax planting also delayed.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-soybean-harvest-reaches-historic-levels-as-wheat-sowing-stalls-in-entre-ros

### 2026-06-27: Argentina wheat planting reaches 65.8% amid humidity delays

Argentina's wheat sowing is 65.8% complete, but recent humidity and rain delay progress, especially in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe; overall crop health remains good.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-wheat-planting-reaches-658-amid-humidity-delays

### 2026-06-25: European cereal prices rally as Argentine soy harvest drops

European cereal futures surged, straining Spain’s market, while Argentina’s soy harvest fell 22 % and corn prices hit 264 000 ARS/ton; rising global demand for soybean oil fuels export hopes.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-soy-harvest-near-completion-prices-surge-to-475000-per-ton

### 2026-06-25: Argentina apple growers face hail damage and Chilean competition

Hail reduced Argentina's 2026 apple harvest, easing sales but exposing weak domestic demand and stiff Chilean competition; growers seek new varieties amid rising costs.

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-2026-agricultural-season-confronts-water-hail-and-nutrient-management-issues

### 2026-06-23: Heavy rains disrupt farms in Paraguay and China

Heavy, short‑burst rains have damaged crops in Paraguay and flooded wheat fields in China, forcing farmers and authorities to adapt planting, harvesting and protection measures to limit loss.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/heavy-rains-disrupt-farms-in-paraguay-and-china

### 2026-06-22: Agricultural research conferences in Rosario and Murcia set for 2026

Soybean leaders meet in Rosario, Argentina on June 30, 2026, while citrus experts convene in Murcia, Spain on June 25, 2026, each forum targeting research, productivity and market challenges.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/agricultural-research-conferences-in-rosario-and-murcia-set-for-2026

### 2026-06-20: Argentina soybean output reaches 7‑year high ahead of major research conference

Argentina's soybean production is projected at a 7‑year high of 51.5 Mt, while the sector prepares for the ACSOJA 2026 seminar in Rosario, a lead‑in to the 2027 World Soybean Research Conference.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentina-soybean-output-reaches-7year-high-ahead-of-major-research-conference

### 2026-06-19: Argentina's 2025/26 maize harvest reaches 48.2% of cultivated area

Argentina's maize harvest is 48.2% complete, projected at 64 Mt—a 30.6% rise—while wheat sowing in Entre Ríos is 65% done and flax at 45%, both influenced by weather.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-202526-maize-harvest-reaches-482-of-cultivated-area

### 2026-06-19: Argentina's 2026 sugarcane harvest advances as Bolivia's stalls amid rain and fuel shortages

Argentina's 2026 sugarcane harvest is on track with high output, while Bolivia's Guabirá mill faces rain‑induced delays and fuel shortages, threatening its production and export goals.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-2026-sugarcane-harvest-advances-as-bolivias-stalls-amid-rain-and-fuel-shortages

### 2026-06-16: Paraguay rains boost winter crops while delaying soybean and corn harvest

Paraguayan rains improve soil moisture and winter crop growth, but postpone soybean and corn harvests, pushing grain collection to late June‑early July.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/paraguay-rains-boost-winter-crops-while-delaying-soybean-and-corn-harvest

### 2026-06-14: Argentina's grain output projection to 177 Mt by 2035 and record low soybean price coverage in 2025/26

Argentina could reach 177 Mt of grain by 2035, but only 21 % of the 2025/26 soybean crop has firm prices, the lowest since 1994/95.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-grain-output-projection-to-177-mt-by-2035-and-record-low-soybean-price-coverage-in-202526

### 2026-06-11: Northwest Argentina sugarcane harvest 2026 tops 1.7 million tonnes

In Argentina's north‑west provinces, the 2026 sugarcane harvest has seen three new mills start, bringing total active plants to 15 and processing over 1.7 million tonnes of raw cane, yielding about 92.5 tonnes

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-northwest-sugarcane-harvest-2026-reaches-17-million-tons

### 2026-05-27: Paraguay and Argentina soybean harvests grapple with heavy rains and yield concerns

Paraguay's soybean harvest yields 1,800‑2,400 kg/ha amid above‑average rain, while Argentina's Santiago del Estero farmers battle mud‑filled fields to harvest soybeans.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/paraguay-and-argentina-soybean-harvests-grapple-with-heavy-rains-and-yield-concerns

### 2026-05-16: Argentina's core grain region projects record corn harvest despite drought

Argentina's core region expects a record 20.35 Mt corn harvest, while total grain output may hit 160 Mt, but farmers face profit cuts from taxes and poor roads.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/argentinas-core-grain-region-projects-record-corn-harvest-despite-drought

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Cite as: Argentina 2026-27 grain outlook and crop shifts. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/argentinaparaguay-2026-harvest-outlook