# Arkansas Senate election polling

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/arkansas-senate-election-polling
> Updated: 2026-08-20T22:57:28.000Z. Sources: 5. Developments: 2.

Polling for the Arkansas Senate race between Republican incumbent Tom Cotton and Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner has shown significant discrepancies. 

In mid-August, a survey by J. L. Partners indicated Cotton held a 16-point lead with 51% support to Shoffner’s 35%. This contrasted with a survey conducted by Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College between August 11-12, which found Shoffner leading with 47.4% to Cotton’s 44%, though this result fell within the poll’s 4.7% margin of error. 

These conflicting figures follow a year of varying estimates, ranging from a 22-point lead for Cotton in February to a much narrower margin in July.

## Timeline

### 2026-08-20: Arkansas Senate race polls show conflicting results for Cotton and Shoffner

Conflicting polls in the Arkansas Senate race show divergent results for Republican Tom Cotton and Democrat Hallie Shoffner, with one survey showing a tie and another a double-digit Republican lead.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/arkansas-senate-race-polls-show-conflicting-results-for-cotton-and-shoffner

### 2026-08-18: Tom Cotton holds 16-point lead in Arkansas Senate poll

A new J. L. Partners poll shows Republican Senator Tom Cotton leading Democrat Hallie Shoffner by 16 points in Arkansas, refuting earlier data that suggested a much closer race.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/tom-cotton-holds-16-point-lead-in-arkansas-senate-poll

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Cite as: Arkansas Senate election polling. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/arkansas-senate-election-polling