# Azerbaijan oil price volatility

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/azerbaijan-oil-price-volatility
> Updated: 2026-08-11T13:56:38.000Z. Sources: 10. Developments: 4.

In late June 2026, analysts expected Azerbaijani gasoline prices to fall as global crude eased and local refining capacity expanded. However, by July, the outlook shifted significantly. On 9 July, “Azeri Light” crude surged more than 8% to approximately $109 per barrel, with the CIF price at Italy’s Augusta port at $109.10 and the FOB price at Turkey’s Ceyhan port at $105.18. This rally was tied to heightened Middle-East tensions and the suspension of loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal following tanker attacks.

By early August, prices moderated but remained elevated. The CIF level at Augusta fell to $101.87 and the FOB level at Ceyhan to $98.25. This represented a month-to-month gain of roughly 20%, the strongest since March, driven by geopolitical risks including renewed U.S.–Iran friction, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Saudi strikes against Iran-backed groups, and attacks on Black Sea export infrastructure. 

In mid-August, market volatility persisted. While Saudi Aramco reduced Arab Light crude prices for Asia due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light crude rose to $95.57 per barrel at the Italian port of Augusta. Throughout these fluctuations, Azerbaijan’s 2026 budget remains based on an average barrel price of $65, underscoring the gap between fiscal planning and market reality.

## Timeline

### 2026-08-11: Saudi Aramco cuts Arab Light crude prices for Asia amid shipping disruptions

Saudi Aramco cut Arab Light crude prices for Asia to its fifth lowest level since 2000 amid shipping disruptions, while Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light crude prices saw an increase.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/saudi-aramco-cuts-arab-light-crude-prices-for-asia-amid-shipping-disruptions

### 2026-08-01: Azerbaijan's Azeri Light crude climbs to $102 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions

Azerbaijan's Azeri Light crude rose to $102 a barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns affecting global oil markets.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/azerbaijans-azeri-light-crude-climbs-to-102-per-barrel-amid-geopolitical-tensions

### 2026-07-23: Azerbaijan’s “Azeri Light” crude rises over 8% to $109 per barrel

Azerbaijan’s “Azeri Light” crude jumped over 8% to $109 per barrel amid regional tensions and supply disruptions, while other grades also rose sharply.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/azerbaijans-azeri-light-crude-rises-over-8-to-109-per-barrel

### 2026-06-30: Fuel Prices Set to Decline Over Next Month in Both Azerbaijan and Ghana

Analysts predict gasoline, diesel and LPG prices will fall in the coming month in Azerbaijan and Ghana as global crude prices ease and local currency movements improve.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/fuel-prices-set-to-decline-over-next-month-in-both-azerbaijan-and-ghana

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Cite as: Azerbaijan oil price volatility. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/azerbaijan-oil-price-volatility