# Brazil citrus production and market volatility

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/brazil-citrus-production-challenges
> Updated: 2026-10-02T12:33:52.000Z. Sources: 9. Developments: 3.

Brazil’s citrus industry continues to face a projected 10.2% decrease in orange production for the 2026/27 harvest compared to the 2025/26 season. While recent rainfall—51% above the historical average—has increased fruit weight and led to a 3.1% upward revision in production estimates to approximately 263.2 million boxes, the sector remains under heavy pressure.

Production in São Paulo and the Triângulo, Sudoeste, and West-Southwest regions of Minas Gerais is central to these forecasts. The industry is heavily impacted by citrus greening disease (HLB), which has contaminated nearly 48% of orange trees in the main production belt. Additionally, producers face high rates of premature fruit drop, with losses reaching up to 30.9% for certain varieties, alongside pest exposure.

Market dynamics are also shifting. Despite the lower supply forecasts, orange juice prices have been declining since March. Analysts attribute this trend to high retail prices, large inventories of frozen concentrated juice, and changing consumer preferences regarding sugar content. 

Climatic factors, including high temperatures associated with El Niño, may favor fresh orange consumption, potentially limiting further price drops. In September, while table orange prices saw a slight decrease, Tahiti lime prices rose by 24.36% due to restricted off-season supply, though a significant increase in lime supply in São Paulo is expected in November.

## Timeline

### 2026-10-02: Brazil citrus market faces supply shifts and price volatility

Brazil's citrus market faces fluctuating prices and supply shifts driven by citrus greening disease, El Niño weather patterns, and changing consumer demand for orange juice.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-citrus-market-faces-supply-shifts-and-price-volatility

### 2026-09-24: Brazil citrus sector faces production drop and greening disease

Brazil's citrus sector faces a 10% production drop for the 2026/27 harvest, as greening disease affects nearly 48% of orange trees in the main production belt.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/greening-disease-affects-48-of-orange-trees-in-brazil

### 2026-09-10: Florida citrus acreage falls 21% in one year

Florida's commercial citrus acreage has fallen nearly 21% in one year, continuing a long-term decline driven by disease, weather, and urbanization.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/florida-citrus-acreage-falls-21-in-one-year

---
Cite as: Brazil citrus production and market volatility. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/brazil-citrus-production-challenges