# Brazil electricity market reforms and energy projections > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/brazil-electricity-market-reforms > Updated: 2026-09-10T07:11:12.000Z. Sources: 40. Developments: 8. Brazil’s power sector remains dominated by renewables—about 90% of generation in 2025—yet residential tariffs stay high due to subsidies totaling R$58.4 billion. While Law 15.269/2025 expands the free-contracting market to approximately 85,000 customers, a Bow-e/NeoFeed survey shows 72.6% of respondents wish to choose their own suppliers when the market opens to households in 2028. Following Minister Alexandre Silveira’s August 2026 announcement, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Decree 13.097 to regulate market access for low-voltage consumers (below 2.3 kV). The decree establishes a timeline where industrial and commercial consumers gain access by November 25, 2027, and all other consumers, including residential users, by November 25, 2028. To maintain supply security, the decree creates the ‘Supridor de Última Instância’ (SUI), a last-resort supplier role that energy distributors will fulfill until the end of 2030. As the transition approaches, industry players are focusing on technological readiness. Armor Energia is investing in artificial intelligence to analyze consumption profiles and develop personalized pricing for the influx of new consumers. While market maturity is increasing, experts like André Millions Coutinho of Thymos Capital emphasize that success depends on complementary regulations and clearer consumer information to prevent migration confusion. Analysts also caution that price-formation distortions and higher generation costs could potentially limit the expected tariff reductions for households. ## Claims - If approved, the bill could add roughly R$1.2 trillion in extra costs over 25 years. (disputed) - Abrace projects up to R$1.5 trillion in cumulative costs from 2027‑2057 if the bill passes. (disputed) - Solar power generation across Europe is expected to decrease by up to 9.7 GW during the solar eclipse. (corroborated by 5 sources) - The CNPE approved a resolution allowing the use of Petrobras pipelines for Union natural gas. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The resolution is expected to reduce industrial gas prices by up to 50%. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The price of gas is projected to fall from US$12 per million BTU to US$5 per million BTU. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Auctions of the gas will be conducted by the Pre‑Salt Petroleum Administration (PPSA). (corroborated by 3 sources) - The ANP will set the payment to Petrobras for the use of its pipelines. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Industry representatives welcomed the decision as beneficial for competitiveness. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Minister Alexandre Silveira said the resolution will lower fuel costs for Brazil’s base‑industry sector. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The Senate Infrastructure Services Committee approved Project Law 5.017. (corroborated by 2 sources) - Solar generation on the Iberian Peninsula is projected to drop by up to 5 GW. (corroborated by 2 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-10: Brazil prepares for electricity market liberalization Brazil is preparing to open its free electricity market to low-voltage consumers by 2028, prompting companies to invest in AI and new service models to manage the influx of residential and small business users. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-prepares-for-electricity-market-liberalization ### 2026-08-13: Brazil regulates free electricity market for small consumers Brazil has regulated the opening of its free electricity market to low-voltage consumers, allowing small businesses and residents to choose energy suppliers starting between 2027 and 2028. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-establishes-deadlines-for-free-electricity-market-access ### 2026-08-07: Portugal and Brazil report growth in liberalized electricity markets Portugal’s liberalised electricity market grew 1.9% in June, while Brazil’s survey shows strong consumer interest ahead of a 2028 market opening, though price concerns remain. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/portugal-and-brazil-report-growth-in-liberalized-electricity-markets ### 2026-07-30: Brazil approves Petrobras pipelines to cut industrial gas prices Brazil’s CNPE approved using Petrobras pipelines for Union gas, aiming to cut industrial gas prices by up to 50% and boost competitiveness. 15 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazilian-industries-slash-electricity-costs-by-moving-to-free-market ### 2026-07-27: Brazil Senate bill could add up to R$1.5 trillion to electricity costs Brazil's Senate approved a bill that could raise electricity bills 11% and add up to R$1.5 trillion in costs over 30 years, mandating new gas‑thermal and small hydro projects. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-senate-bill-could-add-up-to-r15-trillion-to-electricity-costs ### 2026-07-26: Brazil enacts Law 15.269/2025 to expand free electricity market Brazil passed Law 15.269/2025 to modernise its electricity sector, expanding the free‑contracting market to 85,000 consumers (≈43 % of usage) and promoting renewable sourcing and greater cost transparency. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-enacts-law-152692025-to-expand-free-electricity-market ### 2026-07-23: Brazil boosts energy efficiency and grid reliability for thousands Brazil’s Mato Grosso energy‑efficiency swap program has replaced nearly 900 k lamps and thousands of appliances, while Pará’s Equatorial utility adds a new feeder to serve 20 k residents with modern Spacer line 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mato-grosso-program-averts-waste-of-nearly-900000-lamps-and-13000-refrigerators ### 2026-07-22: Brazil's Electricity Market Grapples with High Subsidies and Complex Trade Networks Brazil generates about 90% of its electricity from renewables, but subsidies totalling R$58.4 bn in 2025 keep residential tariffs high, while international traders dominate methanol imports crucial for biodies­ 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazils-electricity-market-grapples-with-high-subsidies-and-complex-trade-networks --- Cite as: Brazil electricity market reforms and energy projections. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/brazil-electricity-market-reforms