# Brazil agribusiness: Production growth amid economic shifts > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/brazil-grain-production-and-soybean-prices > Updated: 2026-09-14T10:01:09.000Z. Sources: 158. Developments: 20. Brazil's agribusiness sector continues to navigate a complex landscape of high production volumes and economic headwinds. While Conab projects a 2025/26 grain harvest of 360.8 million tons, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) anticipates a 4.5% decrease in agricultural Gross Production Value by 2026, reaching R$ 1.398 trillion. In Mato Grosso, producers face intensifying economic pressure. Projections from Senar-MT and Imea for the 2026/27 harvest indicate soybean cultivation costs could reach R$ 8,171.41 per hectare, a 16.69% increase. This rise is expected to drive a 35.05% drop in net income per hectare. While the cultivated area may grow slightly by 0.25%, productivity is projected to decrease by 5.43%, leading to a 5.19% drop in total production. The corn sector faces similar challenges; despite a 0.59% increase in cultivated area, productivity is projected to fall by 8.05%, with high-technology systems seeing costs rise by 13.83%. Global market volatility is driven by recent USDA reports. The September WASDE report unexpectedly raised U.S. soybean production and yield estimates to 123.4 million metric tons, causing Chicago soybean futures to fall 2.68% to US$ 12.96 per bushel. U.S. corn production was estimated at 401.33 million metric tons. On a broader scale, the USDA projects U.S. agricultural net income to reach US$ 158.4 billion in 2026, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year, fueled by a 4.5% increase in total production expenses, which are expected to reach US$ 492.8 billion. ## Claims - Datagro projects Brazil's 2026/27 soybean harvest at 185.6 million tonnes from 49.3 million hectares. (disputed by 2 sources) - Brazil's 2026/27 soybean production estimate was maintained at 186 million tons. (disputed by 2 sources) - Brazil's grain production for the 2025/26 harvest is estimated by Conab to reach 360.8 million tons. (corroborated by 11 sources) - Soybean production in Brazil is estimated to reach 180.5 million tons for the 2025/26 harvest. (corroborated by 11 sources) - Corn production in Brazil is projected to reach 143 million tons for the 2025/26 harvest. (corroborated by 10 sources) - Brazil's agricultural exports grew 10.4% through the second week of August compared to the same period in 2025. (corroborated by 9 sources) - Wheat production in Brazil is estimated to fall by 26.2% compared to the previous harvest. (corroborated by 7 sources) - The agricultural Gross Production Value (VBP) is projected to reach R$ 1.398 trillion in 2026. (corroborated by 6 sources) - The projected VBP for 2026 represents a 4.5% decrease compared to 2025. (corroborated by 6 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-14: Mato Grosso soybean costs projected to reach R$ 8,171 per hectare Soybean and corn production in Mato Grosso faces rising costs and declining profitability for the 2026/27 harvest, according to Senar-MT and Imea projections. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mato-grosso-soybean-costs-projected-to-reach-r-8171-per-hectare ### 2026-09-10: USDA report triggers shifts in US soybean and corn market projections The USDA's September WASDE report raised US soybean production estimates to 123.4 million metric tons, causing Chicago soybean futures to drop 2.68%. US agricultural net income is projected at $158.4 billion in 23 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mato-grosso-soybean-profitability-projected-to-fall-35-in-2627-harvest ### 2026-09-05: Brazil agribusiness: Corn ethanol surges in Goiás as soybean planting begins in Mato Grosso Brazil's agribusiness faces a dual landscape: corn ethanol production in Goiás is set to surge by 50%, while Mato Grosso soybean farmers approach the new planting season with caution due to El Niño risks. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-agribusiness-corn-ethanol-surges-in-gois-as-soybean-planting-begins-in-mato-grosso ### 2026-08-26: Mato Grosso grain production rises amid infrastructure growth and rising corn costs Mato Grosso's grain production has surged to over 110 million tons due to infrastructure investments, though rising production costs for the 2026/27 corn harvest are currently outpacing market prices. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mato-grosso-grain-production-rises-amid-infrastructure-growth-and-rising-corn-costs ### 2026-08-24: Brazil corn market sees cautious trading and steady harvest The Brazilian corn market shows cautious trading with selective sellers and steady industrial demand. Harvest progress is high in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-corn-market-sees-cautious-trading-and-steady-harvest ### 2026-08-24: Brazil agribusiness reports growth in food, feed, and fruit exports Brazil's agribusiness sectors report growth in animal feed, wine, and fruit exports, while the sugar industry shifts toward ethanol amid global deficit projections. 16 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-expands-fruit-and-wine-exports-amid-zero-tariff-grape-shipments-to-eu ### 2026-08-23: Brazil agriculture faces revenue decline despite rising grain harvest Despite a projected 2.4% increase in Brazil's 2025/26 grain harvest, falling prices and high costs could reduce rural gross revenue by R$ 66 billion in 2026, with El Niño posing further climate risks. 35 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-lifts-meat-import-restrictions-on-two-brazilian-companies ### 2026-08-19: Brazil agribusiness: Sugarcane harvest grows while India authorizes sugar imports Brazil's sugarcane harvest is projected to grow 4.7% to 705.2 million tons, while ethanol production hits records. Meanwhile, India authorizes sugar imports to stabilize its domestic market. 28 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/cotton-prices-rise-amid-strong-global-demand-and-climate-concerns ### 2026-08-14: Brazil grain production projected to reach record 360.8 million tons Brazil's 2025/26 grain harvest is projected to hit a record 360.8 million tons, a 2.4% increase driven by expanded cultivation areas and strong corn and soybean yields. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-grain-production-projected-to-reach-record-3608-million-tons ### 2026-08-12: Brazil grain production projected to reach 360.8 million tons in 2025/26 Brazil's 2025/26 grain production is estimated at 360.8 million tons, up 2.4%. Soybeans and corn lead production, despite weather challenges and a decline in beef exports to China. 55 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-corn-exports-accelerate-with-second-crop-arrival ### 2026-08-07: Brazilian agribusiness sees export growth and record harvests Agribusiness exports in Mato Grosso do Sul rose 12.4% to R$ 29 billion in early 2026, while Mato Grosso nears a record corn harvest with over 99% of the area already collected. 12 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mato-grosso-cotton-and-secondcrop-corn-harvests-near-completion ### 2026-08-07: Brazil agribusiness shifts toward ethanol and faces commodity price volatility Brazil's agribusiness sector sees a shift toward ethanol production and strong soybean exports, despite a dip in Q1 GDP caused by falling international commodity prices. 28 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazils-soybean-exports-rise-9-in-july-up-124-in-first-half-of-2026 ### 2026-08-05: Brazil's farm commodity prices rise amid rain, export shifts and sustainability moves Rain spikes Brazil coffee prices; sorghum exports to China rise; Nissin recycles 2,170 t of waste; corn futures fall; US rice tariff threatens $25 M loss; soy stays firm; Rio Grande do Sul rice hits 14‑month‑hi 21 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazilian-soybean-prices-wobble-amid-us-climate-shift-and-china-trade-tension ### 2026-08-03: Mato Grosso faces cotton harvest delay and grain storage shortfall Mato Grosso’s cotton harvest is delayed due to late soy planting, while grain‑storage capacity will cover only 53% of the 2026 crop, risking lower farmer prices and logistics strain. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mato-grosso-faces-cotton-harvest-delay-and-grain-storage-shortfall ### 2026-07-31: Brazil's key agricultural regions report near‑complete corn harvest and shifting market outlook Brazil's Mato Grosso corn harvest nears completion with record yields; Mato Grosso do Sul sees slower corn sales and a new export corridor; São Paulo projects a quality wheat crop; drought threatens wheat in MS 11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazils-corn-and-coffee-harvests-approach-final-stages ### 2026-07-31: Brazil corn and soy prices show wide regional gaps in August 2026 Brazilian corn prices varied R$41‑R$68 per sack regionally in early August, while soybean prices rose 8.5% in July, the strongest gain among commodities, with beef and calf prices also up. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-corn-and-soy-prices-show-wide-regional-gaps-in-august-2026 ### 2026-07-29: Mato Grosso drives Brazil's agribusiness growth and employment Mato Grosso’s dry forecast boosts harvest, while new cotton‑lab jobs, industrial hiring, bioinsumos impact, cooperative exports, higher European beef prices, rice‑AGF purchase and logistics‑tax reforms signal a 33 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazilian-states-mato-grosso-and-mato-grosso-do-sul-target-eu-market-under-mercosureu-deal ### 2026-07-24: Brazil soybean prices rise above R$148 per sack Brazilian soybean prices topped R$148 per sack in late July, driven by strong Chinese demand, a weaker real, and limited supply, while regional prices varied across export ports and interior markets. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-soybean-prices-rise-above-r148-per-sack ### 2026-07-22: Brazil soybean prices hit yearly high before slipping Brazil soybean prices rose to a yearly high of R$142.65 per sack on strong Chinese demand and oil‐price support, then slipped in many regions while still up weekly, with Chicago contracts down modestly. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/brazil-soybean-prices-hit-yearly-high-before-slipping ### 2026-07-16: Brazil projects record corn output and mixed grain forecasts for 2026/27 Brazil forecasts a record 145 Mt corn harvest for 2026/27, total grain output of 360 Mt, soybean prices at six‑month highs with area to hit 49 M ha, rice prices above R$63 and coffee exports may reach 45 M bags 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/international-grains-council-cuts-202627-global-corn-forecast-due-to-european-heat --- Cite as: Brazil agribusiness: Production growth amid economic shifts. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/brazil-grain-production-and-soybean-prices