# California seismic risk research > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/california-seismic-risk-research > Updated: 2026-09-04T08:45:57.000Z. Sources: 12. Developments: 4. Scientific research has identified an increased risk of a major earthquake in Southern California, specifically regarding the San Andreas Fault. Initial modeling of a magnitude-7.8 rupture suggested the potential for two minutes of shaking, causing hundreds of deaths, billions of dollars in damage, and the disruption of critical infrastructure like aqueducts. Subsequent analysis by geophysicists, including Liliane Burkhard, has expanded on this risk by examining 1,000 years of seismic activity. This research indicates that the danger lies in how ruptures might propagate through interconnected fault systems, such as the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. The Cajon Pass has been identified as a critical connection point where a single movement could redistribute stress and trigger a chain reaction across multiple fault segments. Recent findings characterize the Cajon Pass as an “earthquake gateway” due to its position at the intersection of the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems. Lead author Liliane Burkhard stated that current conditions suggest a major earthquake could occur within the current generation, with researchers estimating a potential magnitude of 7.5 at the intersection. Ken Hudnut, a former expert at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), noted that the San Andreas fault is accumulating energy. Further research from the California Institute of Technology warns that the geological structure beneath Los Angeles could significantly amplify tremors. Computer simulations of a potential 7.8 magnitude earthquake near the Salton Sea suggest that seismic waves traveling toward Los Angeles would cause the ground in the downtown area to oscillate for several minutes due to a deep basin of soft sediments acting as an amplifier. The vulnerability of the Cajon Pass is heightened by its role as a dense transportation and utility corridor. ## Claims - A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth indicates that soft sediments under Los Angeles can amplify seismic waves. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Simulations show ground under Downtown Los Angeles moving for minutes during a major earthquake. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The Cajon Pass, where the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems meet, poses a significant risk to Southern California infrastructure. (corroborated by 3 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-04: Los Angeles earthquake risk amplified by soft underground sediments A California Institute of Technology study warns that soft sediment basins under Los Angeles could amplify earthquake tremors, potentially causing prolonged ground movement during a major seismic event. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/los-angeles-earthquake-risk-amplified-by-soft-underground-sediments ### 2026-08-31: Cajon Pass earthquake risk identified in Southern California Scientists warn of a potential magnitude 7.5 earthquake at California's Cajon Pass, a critical junction of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults that threatens vital infrastructure and supply chains. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/cajon-pass-earthquake-risk-identified-in-southern-california ### 2026-08-10: California seismic study highlights risk of interconnected fault ruptures A study of 1,000 years of seismic data suggests California's earthquake risk is heightened by how ruptures might spread between connected fault lines like the San Andreas and San Jacinto. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/california-seismic-study-highlights-risk-of-interconnected-fault-ruptures ### 2026-08-03: Study warns higher risk of a major California earthquake A new study suggests higher stress on the San Andreas Fault could trigger a magnitude‑7.8 quake in California, risking hundreds of deaths, billions in damage, and major infrastructure disruption. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/study-warns-higher-risk-of-a-major-california-earthquake --- Cite as: California seismic risk research. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/california-seismic-risk-research