# California wildfire prediction markets > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/california-wildfire-prediction-markets > Updated: 2026-08-11T10:07:13.000Z. Sources: 23. Developments: 5. In early July 2026, Wyldfyre, a California‑focused prediction market for wildfire outcomes, shut down after an investigative report raised moral concerns and the risk of arson. The platform claimed its contracts were simulated using satellite and firefighter data, but U.S. Forest Service officials warned that financial incentives could create perverse motives. The closure spurred scrutiny of other disaster‑focused markets such as Polymarket. Experts cited the 2023 Eaton fire, noting that betting might encourage malicious behavior. Climate scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau warned that “it’s not just easy to start a fire – now there’s potentially a financial incentive,” while psychologists and a retired sheriff’s arson investigator highlighted links between gambling habits and fire‑setting. In August, a bipartisan group of nine Democratic senators, led by Jeff Merkley, intensified pressure on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In a letter to Chair Michael Selig, the lawmakers demanded a ban on wildfire-related prediction contracts, citing more than $1.2 million in wagers placed on the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires. The senators argued these markets commodify suffering and create arson incentives, giving the CFTC until August 14 to explain its position. By mid-August, the CFTC issued warnings to prediction market platforms regarding their pricing methods. The agency instructed platforms to stop using American-style sportsbook odds, such as plus and minus signs, to price products. The CFTC stated that platforms must clearly designate offerings as financial derivatives rather than gambling wagers to avoid deceiving clients, suggesting pricing should instead use nominal or percentage terms to reflect market value. ## Timeline ### 2026-08-11: CFTC targets prediction market pricing as senators warn of wildfire betting risks The CFTC is cracking down on prediction markets using sportsbook-style odds, while U.S. senators urge regulators to ban wildfire betting due to arson risks and public safety concerns. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/cftc-faces-pressure-over-prediction-market-odds-and-wildfire-betting ### 2026-08-05: US Senators Urge CFTC to Ban Wildfire Prediction Markets US senators demand the CFTC ban wildfire prediction markets, citing $1.2 M in bets on 2025 California fires and risks of arson, while platforms Polymarket and Kalshi defend their services. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-senators-push-cftc-to-ban-wildfire-prediction-markets ### 2026-08-03: U.S. Senators Urge CFTC to Ban Wildfire Prediction Market Bets Senators led by Jeff Merkley asked the CFTC to ban wildfire prediction market bets, citing $1.2 M offshore wagers and arson risk concerns. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-senators-urge-cftc-to-ban-wildfire-prediction-market-bets ### 2026-07-17: Prediction markets on California wildfires raise arson concerns Prediction‑market sites trading on California wildfire outcomes spark expert fears they could incentivize arson, prompting debate over their role in disaster information. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/prediction-markets-on-california-wildfires-raise-arson-concerns ### 2026-07-04: Wyldfyre wildfire prediction market shut down after arson warning California's Wyldfyre wildfire prediction market went offline after an Alaska Beacon report warned that betting on fires could incentivize arson; the site offered simulated bets using satellite data, drawing监管审 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/wyldfyre-wildfire-prediction-market-shut-down-after-arson-warning --- Cite as: California wildfire prediction markets. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/california-wildfire-prediction-markets