# Caspian Sea water level decline > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/caspian-sea-water-level-decline > Updated: 2026-10-09T10:10:21.000Z. Sources: 9. Developments: 3. The Caspian Sea is facing a significant hydrological crisis characterized by declining water levels. Somayeh Rafiei, head of the Iranian Parliament’s Environment Fraction, identified the receding water as the “most serious environmental threat” facing the sea, noting that current frameworks like the Tehran Convention do not sufficiently address the issue. Rafiei attributed the decline to climate change-induced evaporation and a reduction in inflow, noting that approximately 80 percent of the sea’s water is supplied by upstream countries. In Kazakhstan, the recession has resulted in the emergence of new landmasses along the northern and northeastern coasts. Data from the Caspian Sea Kazakh Research Institute shows that the water level in the Kazakhstan section dropped from -26.82 meters in 1996 to a historic low of -29.42 meters in 2025. At the Caspian Ecological Summit in Turkmenistan, leaders from the five bordering nations addressed the accelerating decline, reporting that the sea’s surface area has decreased by more than 20,000 square kilometers. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that the sea area in his country has shrunk by over 16,000 square kilometers in the last 25 years. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev warned that nearly 30,000 hectares of dry land have formed in the Azerbaijani section alone, impacting ecosystems, coastal communities, and port infrastructure. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the water level is dropping by an average of nine centimeters annually, a trend he attributed primarily to climate change. He noted that the receding shoreline has already impacted the Russian coast by 20,000 square kilometers over the last two decades. To manage these threats to biodiversity, fisheries, and infrastructure, Russia is developing a research program through 2030 and has suggested creating an “AI-powered digital twin of the sea” to model changes. ## Claims - Russia is preparing a comprehensive research program on Caspian Sea water level changes through 2030. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The Caspian Sea water level is declining by an average of nine centimeters annually. (corroborated by 2 sources) - The shoreline in Russia has receded by approximately 20,000 square kilometers over the last 20 years. (corroborated by 2 sources) - Moscow has proposed creating an AI-powered digital twin of the Caspian Sea to model water-level changes. (corroborated by 2 sources) - The average sea level on the Kazakh coast has dropped by approximately 29.5 meters. (single source) - The sea area near Kazakhstan has shrunk by more than 16,000 square kilometers in the last 25 years. (single source) - Nearly 30,000 hectares of dry land have formed in the Azerbaijani section of the Caspian Sea. (single source) ## Timeline ### 2026-10-09: Caspian Sea water levels decline, threatening regional ecosystems Leaders at the Caspian Ecological Summit warned of rapid sea-level decline, noting a loss of over 20,000 square kilometers of surface area due to climate change and environmental shifts. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/caspian-sea-leaders-warn-of-accelerating-water-level-decline ### 2026-10-07: Caspian Sea water recession reveals new islands Receding water levels in the Caspian Sea have exposed new islands near Kazakhstan's coast, driven by climate change, evaporation, and reduced inflow from the Volga River. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/caspian-sea-water-recession-reveals-new-islands ### 2026-09-23: Caspian Sea water level decline identified as major environmental threat Somayeh Rafiei, head of Iran's parliamentary environment fraction, warns that declining water levels due to climate change and reduced inflow are the greatest threats to the Caspian Sea. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/caspian-sea-water-level-decline-identified-as-major-environmental-threat --- Cite as: Caspian Sea water level decline. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/caspian-sea-water-level-decline