# Climate change impact on infectious disease spread

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/climate-change-impact-on-infectious-disease-spread
> Updated: 2026-08-10T13:56:51.000Z. Sources: 6. Developments: 2.

Research and health organizations are warning that climate change and rising temperatures are expanding the geographic range and risk of various infectious diseases.

In Africa, a study published in Nature projects that malaria transmission will shift into cooler regions of southern and eastern Africa. By 2050, cases could increase in the East African highlands of Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as in Angola, Zambia, and southern Africa. Conversely, the hottest regions, such as Nigeria and Mali, may see a decline in cases as parts of the Sahel potentially become too hot for mosquitoes to survive.

In Europe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has identified increased risks for foodborne illnesses, vibriosis, mosquito-borne diseases, and tick-borne illnesses due to heatwaves. Specifically, modeling in France suggests that the tiger mosquito could inhabit nearly all of metropolitan France by 2085, significantly increasing the risk of local dengue fever transmission.

## Timeline

### 2026-08-10: Heatwaves and climate change increase infectious disease risks

Rising heatwaves and climate change are increasing the risk of infectious diseases, with studies predicting the tiger mosquito could inhabit most of France by 2085, raising dengue fever concerns.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/heatwaves-and-climate-change-increase-infectious-disease-risks

### 2026-08-04: Climate Change Expands Malaria Risk Across Africa, Study Finds

A *Nature* study forecasts climate change will push malaria into cooler parts of southern and eastern Africa, raising cases up to 20% in some areas while reducing risk in the hottest regions; limiting warming 2

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/climate-change-expands-malaria-risk-across-africa-study-finds

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Cite as: Climate change impact on infectious disease spread. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/climate-change-impact-on-infectious-disease-spread
