# Demographic trends in Italy and Japan > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/demographic-trends-in-italy-and-japan > Updated: 2026-09-09T04:30:27.000Z. Sources: 72. Developments: 5. Italy continues to face a significant demographic decline. Projections from the national statistics agency, ISTAT, indicate the resident population is expected to decrease from 58.9 million in 2025 to 55 million by 2050, with a potential drop to 45.8 million by 2080. This contraction is driven by a record-low fertility rate of 1.14 children per woman in 2025. In the Macerata province, demographic shifts are expected to result in a net loss of 20,958 people by 2050. The region's structure is aging rapidly; residents aged 0-19 are projected to drop significantly, while those aged 80 and over are expected to rise. These shifts are manifesting in the education sector. In the Ancona area, total enrollment for nursery, primary, and middle schools has fallen compared to a decade ago. New data for the 2026/2027 school year confirms a structural decline in student enrollment across the Marche region. According to the Regional School Office (USR), total enrollment has decreased by 3.44% over the last three years to 187,247 students. This decline is most pronounced in primary schools, which saw a 6.41% drop, and nursery schools, which fell by 4.81%. Secondary education remains relatively stable, with high school enrollment decreasing by only 0.44%. USR Director Donatella D’Amico described the trend as a shift toward “fewer students and greater excellence.” Despite these declines, Marche remains the only Italian region with an average fifth-grade Italian language score significantly above the national average, according to INVALSI results. In response to the demographic shift, the Cisl Marche trade union has called for an “educational pact” involving institutions, families, and the labor market. They have proposed creating territorial school campuses to maintain service accessibility in internal areas and prevent the simple closure of smaller schools. ## Claims - Italy's population is projected to decrease from 58.9 million in early 2025 to 55 million by 2050. (corroborated by 25 sources) - The population could fall to 45.8 million by 2080. (corroborated by 25 sources) - The proportion of people aged 65 and older is expected to rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050. (corroborated by 23 sources) - The working-age population (15-64) is projected to fall from 63.4% to 55.3% by 2050. (corroborated by 23 sources) - Births in Italy reached approximately 355,000 in 2025, the lowest level since the unification of Italy in 1861. (corroborated by 22 sources) - The fertility rate in 2025 fell to 1.14 children per woman. (corroborated by 20 sources) - Southern Italy is expected to experience the most significant population loss, dropping from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050. (corroborated by 10 sources) - By 2047, couples without children are projected to outnumber couples with children in Italy. (corroborated by 6 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-09: Marche school enrollment declines due to demographic shifts School enrollment in Italy's Marche region has dropped 3.44% over three years due to low birth rates, though regional educational quality and language test scores remain above the national average. 6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/italian-school-enrollment-declines-amid-demographic-shifts ### 2026-09-05: Macerata province faces significant population decline by 2050 Istat projections forecast a significant population decline and aging trend in Italy's Macerata province by 2050, with a projected loss of nearly 21,000 residents and a surge in the elderly population. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/macerata-province-faces-significant-population-decline-by-2050 ### 2026-09-02: Italy faces demographic decline as population projections signal long-term contraction Italy faces a major demographic crisis with projections showing a shrinking, aging population. Meanwhile, Finnish researchers propose a state-funded investment model to incentivize childbearing. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/demographic-decline-trends-in-italy-and-proposed-fertility-solutions-in-finland ### 2026-08-31: Italy population projected to shrink to 45.8 million by 2080 ISTAT projections show Italy's population could fall to 45.8 million by 2080, driven by record-low birth rates and an aging society that threatens economic and welfare sustainability. 55 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/japan-and-italy-face-diverging-demographic-trends-amid-birth-rate-shifts ### 2026-08-20: Parenting and demographic trends in Italy In Italy, declining birth rates and the complexities of modern parenting have increased the focus on educational tools to foster child autonomy and manage the challenges of raising independent youth. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/parenting-and-demographic-trends-in-italy --- Cite as: Demographic trends in Italy and Japan. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/demographic-trends-in-italy-and-japan