# ECLAC economic outlook for Latin America

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/eclac-economic-outlook-for-latin-america
> Updated: 2026-08-20T16:25:32.000Z. Sources: 54. Developments: 2.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has issued warnings regarding the economic outlook for the region in 2026. Initially, Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs highlighted that global trade uncertainty, driven by United States tariffs implemented under President Donald Trump, is expected to impact Latin American economies heavily. This instability is further exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, specifically the conflict between the United States and Iran affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

Following these concerns, ECLAC lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for the region to 2.2%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from previous projections. The commission noted that while macroeconomic stability may be preserved, the projected growth is insufficient to increase per capita income or close development gaps. The outlook is attributed to slower global growth, financial uncertainty, and pressure on energy markets. To escape this “low growth capacity trap,” ECLAC suggests the region must focus on increasing investment, productivity, and productive formalization.

In its 2026 Economic Study, ECLAC noted that the 2.2% projection marks a period where the region has averaged approximately 2.3% growth over five years. Growth projections vary significantly by country: Venezuela is expected to lead with 6.5% growth, followed by Nicaragua (4.5%), Panama (4.4%), Paraguay (4.3%), and Guatemala (4.0%). New data highlights Guyana as a major leader with a projected 16.2% growth rate. Other notable projections include El Salvador at 3.9%, supported by strong remittance inflows, and the Dominican Republic at 4.0%. Conversely, Mexico is projected to grow by only 1.3%, a figure revised down from 1.5% in April, while Cuba and Haiti are expected to face economic contractions of -10.3% and -1.9%, respectively. Recent data confirms Mexico remains among the lower performers alongside Uruguay (1.5%) and Chile (1.6%).

## Claims

- ECLAC projects Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2.2% in 2026. (corroborated by 23 sources)
- The regional growth rate is considered insufficient to close development gaps. (corroborated by 16 sources)
- Venezuela is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2026. (corroborated by 8 sources)
- Mexico's economic growth is projected at 1.3% for 2026. (corroborated by 7 sources)
- Cuba is projected to experience a 10.3% contraction in GDP in 2026. (corroborated by 5 sources)
- El Salvador's growth projection for 2026 was raised to 3.9%. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- Chile's growth projection for 2026 was reduced to 1.6%. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- Guyana is projected to grow by 16.2% in 2026. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-08-20: ECLAC projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026

ECLAC projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, noting that the pace is insufficient to close development gaps despite strong performance in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

53 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/eclac-lowers-2026-growth-forecast-for-latin-america-to-22

### 2026-08-18: ECLAC warns US tariffs will hit Latin America harder in 2026

ECLAC head José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs warns that US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz will increase economic uncertainty for Latin America in 2026.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/eclac-warns-us-tariffs-will-hit-latin-america-harder-in-2026

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Cite as: ECLAC economic outlook for Latin America. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/eclac-economic-outlook-for-latin-america