# El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/el-nio-climate-risks-in-mozambique-and-madagascar
> Updated: 2026-09-08T05:58:23.000Z. Sources: 11. Developments: 2.

The El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are driving severe climate risks across Mozambique and Madagascar, with effects expected to persist until early 2027.

In Mozambique, the situation varies by region. The Memba District in Nampula Province faces a moderate drought risk, prompting the activation of Anticipatory Action Plans. More broadly, the government has identified 52 districts in the central and southern regions susceptible to water scarcity and rainfall deficits that could exacerbate food insecurity affecting 3.5 million people. Conversely, northern Mozambique faces risks of excessive precipitation and flooding.

Madagascar is experiencing similar regional contrasts. The southern and western areas face drought and water deficits, while the north and east anticipate heavy rainfall and flash floods. The island also faces extreme temperature anomalies, increasing the risk of heatwaves and wildfires in protected forests.

Regional impacts are extending to neighboring countries. Zimbabwe is bracing for a difficult agricultural season, with forecasts predicting below-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures between October 2026 and March 2027. In Kenya, authorities are preparing for increased rainfall and potential flooding in eastern regions, with the Ministry of Health activating a contingency plan to mitigate health risks such as water-borne diseases.

## Claims

- El Niño is expected to reach very high intensity before peaking toward the end of 2026. (single source)
- There is a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027. (single source)
- Zimbabwe expects a below-to-normal rainfall season between October 2026 and March 2027 due to a very strong El Niño. (single source)
- Madagascar faces threats from an exceptionally strong El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. (single source)
- Kenya's Ministry of Health has activated a contingency plan to prepare for health risks from potential flooding. (single source)
- The Mozambican government has identified 52 southern districts at risk of water shortages. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-08: East Africa faces extreme weather risks from strong El Niño

A strong El Niño is set to cause extreme weather across East Africa and the Indian Ocean, bringing drought to Mozambique and Zimbabwe, while threatening Kenya and Madagascar with flooding and heatwaves.

9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mozambique-and-madagascar-face-extreme-climate-risks-from-el-nio

### 2026-09-03: Memba District faces moderate drought risk due to El Niño

Memba District in Mozambique faces a potential moderate drought from October 2023 to May 2027 due to El Niño, prompting authorities to activate preventive action plans and distribute drought-resistant seeds.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/memba-district-faces-moderate-drought-risk-due-to-el-nio

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Cite as: El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/el-nio-climate-risks-in-mozambique-and-madagascar