# Catalonia polls: Aliança surges, Junts intensifies battle > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/ercs-esquerra-democrtica-formation > Updated: 2026-08-15T04:00:32.000Z. Sources: 60. Developments: 17. The political landscape in Catalonia is undergoing a significant realignment. The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) remains the largest force, projected to win 34–38 seats, while Aliança Catalana (AC) is surging. Led by Sílvia Orriols, AC is projected by the Centro de Estudios de Opinión (CEO) to expand from two seats to over 20, potentially becoming the second-largest party and overtaking Junts per Catalunya. This growth is fueled by a migration of voters, with approximately 28% of Junts voters and 23% of Vox voters expected to shift to AC. The party’s platform combines anti-immigration rhetoric with criticism of traditional pro-independence parties for the perceived failure of the 2017 independence process. While initially rooted in Girona and Lleida, AC’s influence is spreading to Barcelona and Tarragona. In response to AC’s rise, Junts leaders have intensified their political confrontation with the party, focusing on immigration ahead of municipal elections. Salvador Vergés, a rising figure in Junts, has called for direct confrontation with AC. Amidst the migration crisis in Ceuta, Junts members are demanding the transfer of border competencies and seeking to exclude Catalonia from the distribution of minors. Vergés has proposed that access to certain social benefits, such as housing assistance, should be conditional on a newcomer’s demonstrated ability to integrate into Catalan society, though he maintains that basic rights like healthcare must remain guaranteed. Meanwhile, the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) has launched Esquerra Democràtica to create a centrist, liberal-socialist space, as Junts continues to face a projected loss of over 40% of its electorate. ## Claims - The GESOP poll was conducted from 16 to 22 July. (corroborated by 10 sources) - PSC will win 34‑37 seats in the Catalan parliament. (corroborated by 10 sources) - PSC would receive about 25 % of the vote. (corroborated by 10 sources) - Aliança Catalana would win 25‑28 seats. (corroborated by 10 sources) - Aliança Catalana would obtain 16.8 % of the vote. (corroborated by 10 sources) - ERC would win 24‑27 seats. (corroborated by 10 sources) - Junts would win 15‑18 seats. (corroborated by 10 sources) - The poll predicts Vox will increase its vote share from 7.9 % to about 9.2 %. (corroborated by 4 sources) - PSC would win 34 to 37 seats in a hypothetical Catalan election. (corroborated by 4 sources) - PSC would obtain 25 % of the votes and win 34‑37 seats. (corroborated by 3 sources) - PSC would lose five to eight seats compared with its current 42. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Aliança Catalana would receive about 26 % of the votes (one quarter). (corroborated by 3 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-15: Aliança Catalana projected to surge in Catalan Parliament elections Polling suggests Aliança Catalana could grow from two to over 20 seats in Catalan elections, drawing significant support from voters of Junts and Vox through anti-immigration and pro-independence critique. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/aliana-catalana-projected-to-surge-in-catalan-parliament-elections ### 2026-08-14: Junts intensifies political battle with Aliança over immigration Junts leaders are escalating political tension with Aliança Catalana, focusing on immigration and border competencies in response to the Ceuta crisis ahead of municipal elections. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/junts-intensifies-political-battle-with-aliana-over-immigration ### 2026-08-11: Aliança Catalana sees surge in support amid shifting Catalan politics Aliança Catalana is seeing a surge in Catalan polling, drawing voters from Junts and Vox through anti-immigration and pro-independence critiques, despite Vox's rejection of shared nativist labels. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/aliana-catalana-sees-surge-in-support-amid-shifting-catalan-politics ### 2026-07-31: Catalan Parties Aliança Catalana Gains 867,000 Votes as Junts Loses Support Amid Puigdemont Return Debate Aliança Catalana may capture 867,000 votes, pulling 22% from Junts, while Junts VP Josep Rius blames Spain for blocking Carles Puigdemont’s return and cites upcoming EU court rulings. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalan-parties-aliana-catalana-gains-867000-votes-as-junts-loses-support-amid-puigdemont-return-deb ### 2026-07-27: Catalan PSC projected to win 34‑37 seats, Aliança Catalana to become second force GESOP poll (16‑22 July) projects PSC at 34‑37 seats (≈25 % vote), Aliança Catalana second with 25‑28 seats (≈16.8 % vote), reshaping Catalonia’s party landscape. 14 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonia-poll-projects-psc-ahead-aliana-catalana-as-second-force ### 2026-07-23: Spain's Congress eases rules for ERC and Junts to form parliamentary groups Spain's Congress lowered vote thresholds for parliamentary groups, enabling ERC and Junts to form their own groups ahead of upcoming elections. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spains-congress-eases-rules-for-erc-and-junts-to-form-parliamentary-groups ### 2026-07-23: Catalonia pushes for Basque‑style fiscal autonomy as Junts demands ‘key to the box’ Junts leader Míriam Nogueras demanded Catalonia gain Basque‑style tax control, called for Sánchez’s resignation, and urged PSC and ERC to use their votes to secure a new financing model. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonia-pushes-for-basquestyle-fiscal-autonomy-as-junts-demands-key-to-the-box ### 2026-07-18: ERC Leader Junqueras Endorses Gabriel Rufián as Candidate for Upcoming General Election ERC president Oriol Junqueras backs Gabriel Rufián as the party’s lead candidate for Spain’s next general election, urging rival Junts to support Catalan‑focused financing measures. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/erc-leader-junqueras-endorses-gabriel-rufin-as-candidate-for-upcoming-general-election ### 2026-07-17: Catalonia faces governance challenges as far‑right AC threatens stability and left blocks chamber law Catalonia's governance is under pressure as ERC warns the far‑right Aliança Catalana could block parliament, while En Comú Podem and CUP stop a chambers law they say favours big business. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonia-faces-governance-challenges-as-farright-ac-threatens-stability-and-left-blocks-chamber-law ### 2026-07-14: Spanish Congress poised to ease group‑formation rules for ERC and Junts Spain's Congress will vote on lowering vote thresholds for parliamentary groups, helping parties like ERC and Junts meet criteria more easily. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spanish-congress-poised-to-ease-groupformation-rules-for-erc-and-junts ### 2026-07-12: Aliança Catalana overtakes Junts in Catalonia poll CEO poll shows Aliança Catalana leaping to 24‑25 seats, pushing Junts to fourth place; Junts hopes Puigdemont’s possible return, while Aliança’s hard‑line stance aligns with Vox. 13 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonia-faces-deep-political-and-economic-crisis-as-party-support-shifts ### 2026-07-11: ERC leader Junqueras credits party's utility for poll surge in Catalonia ERC’s Oriol Junqueras says the party’s role in amnesty talks and a new financing model drove a poll surge, with projections of 24‑26 seats and a forthcoming 400 million‑euro budget plan. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/erc-leader-junqueras-credits-partys-utility-for-poll-surge-in-catalonia ### 2026-07-09: Catalonia's political landscape shifts as new left association challenges ERC Catalan political analyst Albert Noguera says a constituent process is unlikely, while new association Esquerra Democràtica seeks to reshape ERC amid debates over the legacy of Convergència and emerging social 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonias-political-landscape-shifts-as-new-left-association-challenges-erc ### 2026-07-09: Catalonia poll projects PSC lead, gains for ERC and rising independence support CEO's Catalonia poll shows PSC leading with 36‑38 seats, ERC second, AC overtaking Junts, and independence support rising to 45 % while 40 % feel less at home due to immigration. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonia-poll-projects-psc-lead-erc-and-aliana-surge-as-junts-falls-to-fourth ### 2026-07-04: Catalonia's separatist parties realign as polls show Junts losing ground Catalan leaders propose a broad front if PP‑Vox governs, while a poll shows Junts losing seats to ERC and Aliança Catalana, and Junts declares any deal with PSOE a political suicide. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalan-leaders-propose-democratic-front-if-spains-pp-and-vox-govern ### 2026-07-01: Catalonia's new 'Esquerra Democràtica' initiative faces criticism Carles Campuzano and Francesc‑Marc Álvaro created Esquerra Democràtica, a think‑tank tied to ERC, and it is being criticised as a re‑packaging of old politics aimed at reshaping Catalan independence strategy. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/catalonias-new-esquerra-democrtica-initiative-faces-criticism ### 2026-06-29: ERC launches Esquerra Democràtica association in Catalonia ERC launched Esquerra Democràtica, a centrist pro‑sovereignty association led by Carles Campuzano and Francesc‑Marc Álvaro, to broaden its base, challenge PSC and weaken Junts. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/erc-launches-esquerra-democrtica-association-in-catalonia --- Cite as: Catalonia polls: Aliança surges, Junts intensifies battle. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/ercs-esquerra-democrtica-formation