# European energy volatility, supply risks, and mobility > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/european-energy-supply-and-fuel-market-volatility > Updated: 2026-10-25T14:24:11.000Z. Sources: 55. Developments: 10. Europe faces intensifying energy volatility and supply risks driven by Middle East tensions and the war in Ukraine. While EU reliance on Russian fuel has decreased, high prices persist. EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jørgensen has warned that the situation is expected to worsen during winter, noting that gas prices have risen by 140 percent and diesel prices have doubled since February. Jørgensen highlighted a growing emergency where approximately 50 million Europeans may face the choice between heating and food. International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Fatih Birol has warned that global energy markets may not normalize until 2027. He cited intense competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) between European buyers and Asian nations. Birol indicated that global oil and gas supplies are expected to remain critical due to the conflict involving Iran. Recent data shows Brent crude oil reaching approximately $117 per barrel, roughly 59 percent above pre-war levels. Birol expressed particular concern regarding diesel shortages, noting that Middle Eastern oil derivative shipments dropped significantly following the conflict. Renewed reliance on coal power is emerging in Europe as gas prices surge due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In Germany, the profitability of lignite power generation has spiked to approximately 64 euros per megawatt-hour to prevent blackouts. Energy security concerns vary by nation; Italy maintains gas storage near 90 percent capacity, while Germany faces lower levels at approximately 60 percent. To address this, German officials are considering mandates to ensure higher storage levels ahead of winter. The crisis is accelerating a shift toward electric mobility; analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E) indicates EV users spend less than half the energy costs per kilometer compared to diesel users. In a recent update, Birol noted that oil prices have approached $120 per barrel, impacting global trade deficits. ## Claims - The conflict in Iran is causing critical global oil and gas supply issues. (corroborated by 7 sources) - Competition for LNG between Europe and Asian buyers like Japan, South Korea, and China will drive prices up. (corroborated by 6 sources) - European gas storage levels are currently at 72 percent. (corroborated by 6 sources) - IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol predicts energy markets will not normalize until 2027. (corroborated by 6 sources) - Gas imports from the Gulf states remain interrupted. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Birol advises maximizing electricity generation and domestic oil and gas production. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Birol opposes loosening restrictions on Russian gas imports to prevent European dependency. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Birol criticized Germany's decision to decommission functional nuclear power plants. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Brent crude oil prices reached approximately $117 per barrel. (corroborated by 2 sources) - Middle Eastern oil derivative shipments in September were 1.9 million barrels per day. (single source) - Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by approximately 0.5 percent in 2026. (single source) ## Timeline ### 2026-10-25: IEA Chief warns energy markets will not normalize until 2027 IEA Chief Fatih Birol warns that energy markets will not normalize until 2027 due to conflicts in the Middle East, citing high oil prices and gas supply risks in Europe. 11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/iea-chief-warns-of-energy-market-instability-through-2027-1 ### 2026-10-24: European Commissioner warns of housing crisis and energy insecurity EU Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warns of a housing emergency and energy insecurity affecting millions of Europeans. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/european-commissioner-warns-of-housing-crisis-and-energy-insecurity ### 2026-10-23: IEA Chief Fatih Birol warns of energy crisis lasting until 2027 IEA Chief Fatih Birol warns that energy market normalization is unlikely before 2027 due to geopolitical tensions and low European gas reserves. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/iea-chief-warns-of-european-energy-vulnerability ### 2026-10-17: Coal power plants in Europe return to profitability Rising gas prices and LNG supply shortages have made Europe's remaining coal power plants profitable again, particularly in Germany and Poland, as they help stabilize energy grids. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/coal-power-plants-in-europe-return-to-profitability ### 2026-10-16: Europe turns to coal as gas prices surge and storage levels vary Rising gas prices and supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz are forcing Europe to reactivate coal plants, while Germany considers new storage mandates to match Italy's high gas reserve levels. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/europe-turns-to-coal-as-gas-prices-surge-and-storage-levels-vary ### 2026-10-13: EU Commissioner warns of worsening energy price crisis this winter EU Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warns that rising energy prices will worsen this winter, forcing millions of Europeans to choose between heating and food as gas and diesel costs surge. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/eu-commissioner-warns-of-worsening-energy-price-crisis-this-winter ### 2026-10-13: Energy crisis drives electric vehicle adoption and fuel profit debates in Europe Rising fuel prices in Europe due to geopolitical tensions are driving economic advantages for electric vehicles and prompting calls in Hungary to tax windfall profits from major oil companies. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/fuel-price-volatility-drives-energy-cost-disparities-in-europe ### 2026-10-04: Diesel fuel risks triggering energy shock in Eurozone Diesel price volatility and the depletion of emergency energy reserves threaten to trigger an energy shock and drive inflation across the Eurozone and global supply chains. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/diesel-fuel-risks-triggering-energy-shock-in-eurozone ### 2026-10-02: European diesel demand hits historic lows amid shifting oil markets European diesel consumption is hitting historic lows in Spain and France, while Hungary maintains relatively stable and competitive fuel prices despite global oil market fluctuations. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/european-diesel-demand-hits-historic-lows-amid-shifting-oil-markets ### 2026-09-28: Europe faces energy supply risks as gas reserves remain low Low European gas reserves and rising fuel costs are driving inflation in Germany toward 3 percent, prompting increased reliance on coal and government tax relief for drivers. 16 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/energy-shifts-iran-discovers-massive-gas-reserves-as-europe-returns-to-coal --- Cite as: European energy volatility, supply risks, and mobility. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/european-energy-supply-and-fuel-market-volatility