# European seasonal weather outlook > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/european-seasonal-weather-outlook > Updated: 2026-08-01T15:12:35.000Z. Sources: 3. Developments: 2. In early July, forecasters issued a winter outlook for Europe, noting that a milder season was expected as an Atlantic cold anomaly expanded. By early August, the focus shifted to the summer forecast, which projected a warmer-than‑average August across southern and southeastern Europe under a dominant high‑pressure ridge. The forecast also warned of possible short, intense thunderstorms and a later shift in atmospheric circulation that could bring cooler air and increased precipitation to north‑west Europe. Meteorologists highlighted the developing El Niño phenomenon as a factor that may influence autumn and winter patterns, potentially leading to more extreme rainfall, droughts, or localized flooding. Overall, the series of forecasts illustrate a transition from a milder winter expectation to a warm summer outlook, while also emphasizing uncertainty and the potential for later seasonal changes driven by broader climate signals such as El Niño. ## Timeline ### 2026-08-01: European Summer Forecast Shows Warm August in South, Southeast Seasonal forecasts predict a warmer August for southern and southeastern Europe, followed by a possible shift to cooler, wetter conditions later in the month, with El Niño likely affecting autumn and winter. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/european-summer-forecast-shows-warm-august-in-south-southeast ### 2026-07-04: Europe winter outlook: milder season as Atlantic cold anomaly expands Early forecasts suggest a milder European winter as a cold North Atlantic anomaly expands, while a strong Super El Niño may bring colder air to parts of the US and Canada. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/europe-winter-outlook-milder-season-as-atlantic-cold-anomaly-expands --- Cite as: European seasonal weather outlook. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/european-seasonal-weather-outlook