# Geopolitical conflicts impacting global oil supplies

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/geopolitical-conflicts-impacting-global-oil-supplies
> Updated: 2026-08-25T07:30:00.000Z. Sources: 4. Developments: 2.

Global oil supplies have entered a period of significant instability driven by military conflicts in key energy-producing regions. In early August, Ukrainian strikes on three major Russian oil refineries disrupted fuel production and logistics. Simultaneously, Iranian-aligned militants utilized drones to strike the Saudi oil processing hub at Abqaiq, removing over 1.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity. These events contributed to an estimated global refining deficit of approximately 6.5 million barrels per day.

By late August, reports indicated that conflict-affected regions accounted for over 43% of global oil production. The energy crisis has been exacerbated by the aftermath of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The latter has driven Russian refining activity to its lowest levels in decades, prompting Russia to ban gasoline and diesel exports. Consequently, global refining capacity has dropped by roughly 10%, maintaining high prices for diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel despite fluctuations in crude oil prices.

## Claims

- Conflict-affected nations produced approximately 45 million barrels of oil per day in 2025. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel six months ago triggered a major global oil supply crisis. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Russia has banned exports of gasoline and diesel due to fuel shortages. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have reduced global refining capacity by approximately 10%. (single source)
- Global refineries processed approximately 80.9 million barrels of crude per day in July. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-08-25: Global oil supply faces crisis as conflicts impact 43% of production

Conflict-affected regions now account for over 43% of global oil production, totaling 45 million barrels per day. Ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are driving a major global refining and supply crise

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/global-oil-supply-faces-crisis-as-40-of-production-stems-from-conflict-zones

### 2026-08-03: Ukraine and Iran Strikes Hit Russian and Saudi Oil Refineries, Deepening Global Shortage

Ukrainian strikes on three Russian refineries and a hit on a sanctioned ship, plus Iranian‑aligned drone attacks on Saudi’s Abqaiq hub, push the global refining deficit to 6.5 million bpd, deepening the oil‑s​h

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ukraine-and-iran-strikes-hit-russian-and-saudi-oil-refineries-deepening-global-shortage

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Cite as: Geopolitical conflicts impacting global oil supplies. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/geopolitical-conflicts-impacting-global-oil-supplies