# German political trends regarding migration and voting

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/german-political-trends-regarding-migration-and-voting
> Updated: 2026-08-31T09:00:00.000Z. Sources: 11. Developments: 2.

Recent sociological research in Germany highlights shifting political dynamics related to migration and voter behavior.

A study from Saarland University analyzing data from 2014 to 2024 suggests that immigration concerns are a primary driver for support of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Researchers found that these concerns predict voting tendencies up to ten times more strongly than economic factors or social marginalization, a result Professor Martin Schröder described as “astonishing.”

Concurrently, research from the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (Dezim) indicates that voters with migration backgrounds are increasingly distancing themselves from established political parties. Among voters with roots in regions such as Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, or Pakistan, support for the CDU/CSU and the SPD has seen notable declines. While the SPD maintains the largest potential voter base in this demographic, voters with roots in Russia or former Soviet states show higher levels of interest in the AfD.

## Claims

- Voters with a migration background are distancing themselves from political parties more than other eligible voters. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- Among German citizens with roots in Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, or Pakistan, only 50% could imagine ever voting for the CDU or CSU, down from 67% a year prior. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- Support for the SPD among voters with roots in Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, or Pakistan dropped from 71% to 60% over one year. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- The AfD receives higher support among voters with roots in Russia or other former Soviet states compared to other migration groups. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- The proportion of eligible voters with a migration background in Germany was between 12% and 14% during the study period. (corroborated by 2 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-08-31: Germany: Voters with migration backgrounds distance themselves from parties

A Dezim study shows German voters with migration backgrounds are increasingly distancing themselves from major parties, with significant declines in support for the CDU, CSU, and SPD.

11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/germany-voters-with-migration-backgrounds-distance-themselves-from-parties

### 2026-08-28: Saarland University study identifies immigration concerns as key driver for AfD support

Saarland University researchers found that concerns over immigration, rather than economic disadvantage, are the primary driver for AfD voter support in Germany, according to a decade-long data analysis.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/saarland-university-study-identifies-immigration-concerns-as-key-driver-for-afd-support

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Cite as: German political trends regarding migration and voting. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/german-political-trends-regarding-migration-and-voting