# Global liquefied natural gas market trends

> Developing situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/global-liquefied-natural-gas-market-trends
> Updated: 2026-10-25T17:35:20.000Z. Sources: 12. Developments: 3.

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is experiencing significant shifts driven by geopolitical instability and long-term infrastructure expansion.

Conflict in the Middle East, specifically Iranian missile strikes on a Qatari LNG hub and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has impacted up to 20 per cent of global LNG supply. This has caused prices to more than double compared to pre-war levels. Consequently, the Australian LNG industry expects a revenue surge of $23 billion, with total revenue potentially reaching $70 billion this financial year. Major operators such as Woodside Energy, Santos, and Shell are seeing improved financial outlooks as gas-dependent nations in Europe and Asia seek replacement cargoes.

Volatility remains high as Rystad Energy projects global LNG portfolio costs will rise to at least US$256.3 billion in 2026, a US$39 billion increase over pre-conflict estimates of US$217.8 billion. Modeling suggests supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates could be unavailable from March 2025 through the end of 2026 due to escalating tensions. Despite these rising costs, global importers are projected to purchase 60.7 million tonnes less LNG in 2026. Europe is expected to be heavily impacted, with its LNG bill projected to increase by at least US$12 billion (18%) despite a projected demand decline of 24 million tonnes, largely due to a high reliance on the spot market.

Looking toward 2030, global LNG export capacity is projected to grow by 50%, marking the largest increase in history. Shell’s modeling scenarios—‘Surge’, ‘Archipelagos’, and ‘Horizon’—all suggest significant near-term growth, with volumes potentially reaching 550 million tonnes per year by the end of the decade, fueled by ongoing projects in the United States and Qatar.

## Claims

- Global LNG portfolio costs are projected to reach at least $256.3 billion in 2026. (reported by 2 sources)
- LNG importers will spend at least $39 billion more in 2026 than previously estimated. (reported by 2 sources)
- Global LNG importers are expected to buy 60.7 million tonnes less LNG in 2026. (reported by 2 sources)
- Europe’s LNG bill is expected to increase by at least $12 billion in 2026. (reported by 2 sources)
- Approximately 65% of Europe’s LNG imports are sourced through the spot market. (reported by 2 sources)
- Supply disruptions are expected from Qatar and the UAE from March through the end of 2026. (reported by 2 sources)
- LNG demand is projected to reach around 550 million tonnes per year by the end of the decade. (reported by 1 source)
- LNG growth in the near term is being fueled by projects in Qatar and the United States. (reported by 1 source)

## Timeline

### 2026-10-25: Global LNG costs projected to rise by $39 billion amid Middle East disruptions

Global LNG importers face a projected $39 billion cost increase in 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions, despite purchasing lower volumes of gas.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/global-lng-markets-face-supply-disruptions-and-rising-costs

### 2026-10-06: LNG export capacity projected to grow 50% by 2030

Global LNG export capacity is set to increase by 50% by 2030, potentially lowering gas prices while shifting shipping dynamics between Atlantic and Pacific markets.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/lng-export-capacity-projected-to-grow-50-by-2030

### 2026-10-02: Australia's LNG industry expects $23 billion revenue surge

Australian LNG export revenue is projected to hit $70 billion this financial year, a $23 billion increase driven by Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/australias-lng-industry-expects-23-billion-revenue-surge

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Cite as: Global liquefied natural gas market trends. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/global-liquefied-natural-gas-market-trends