# Global oil supply and Middle East market volatility > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/global-oil-supply-and-middle-east-market-volatility > Updated: 2026-09-12T05:43:00.000Z. Sources: 7. Developments: 2. Iraq has formally requested to increase its OPEC+ oil production baseline to 6 million barrels per day as part of a capacity audit. This request contrasts with International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, which place Iraq’s sustainable capacity at approximately 4.9 million barrels per day. Actual production in August was reported at roughly 2.98 million barrels per day due to regional disruptions. Concurrently, the IEA has projected a global oil supply decrease of 5.7 million barrels per day for 2026. This forecast is influenced by downward revisions in global demand and significant security risks in the Middle East. Hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to price volatility, and the IEA has postponed the expected full recovery of Middle Eastern supplies until 2027. Declining global inventories and refining limitations have further placed upward pressure on crude prices. ## Timeline ### 2026-09-12: IEA projects 5.7 million barrel per day drop in 2026 global oil supply The IEA projects a 5.7 million barrel per day drop in global oil supply for 2026 and a downward revision in demand due to Middle East tensions and rising prices. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/iea-projects-57-million-barrel-per-day-drop-in-2026-global-oil-supply ### 2026-09-08: Iraq requests OPEC+ production baseline increase to 6 million barrels per day Iraq has requested that OPEC+ raise its oil production baseline to 6 million barrels per day, despite IEA estimates placing its sustainable capacity at 4.9 million barrels per day. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/iraq-requests-opec-production-baseline-increase-to-6-million-barrels-per-day --- Cite as: Global oil supply and Middle East market volatility. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/global-oil-supply-and-middle-east-market-volatility