# Global temperature and heatwave escalation > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/global-temperature-and-heatwave-escalation > Updated: 2026-08-12T12:07:14.000Z. Sources: 27. Developments: 2. Global temperature trends in 2026 show a significant increase driven by greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño. Early reports indicated a 35% probability that 2026 would surpass 2024 in temperature, with marine heatwaves affecting approximately 82% of the global ocean. In Bulgaria, these shifts manifested as severe forest fires and weather-related safety concerns. By mid-August, data confirmed that July 2026 was the second hottest July on record, crossing the critical +1.5 °C warming threshold compared to pre-industrial levels. Land temperatures reached +2.03 °C above the reference period, while ocean surface temperatures were +1.25 °C above the reference period. Projections for the full year have since been updated, with analysts stating there is a 69% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year ever recorded and a nearly 99% probability that the annual global average will exceed the +1.5 °C threshold. Across Europe, extreme heat has led to significant consequences, including thousands of excess deaths during peak heatwave weeks and widespread wildfires in countries such as Greece, Croatia, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom. In Hungary, these trends have resulted in unprecedented heatwaves that surpassed previous records from 1994 and 2007. Climate researcher Péter Szabó of ELTE noted that Budapest experienced two unprecedentedly intense heatwaves in 2026, following a trend of longer and more intense heatwaves since 2010. Research suggests an 89% certainty that human activity is responsible for the increased frequency of these regional heatwaves. Health and safety warnings have been issued across Hungary and Slovakia, with temperatures reaching up to 38 °C in some Hungarian counties and 35 °C in Slovakia. Medical professionals have warned of increased risks of dehydration, exhaustion, and heatstroke, particularly for vulnerable populations. ## Claims - July was the second hottest July on record globally. (disputed by 3 sources) - June 2026 was the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Budapest experienced two intense heatwaves in 2026, surpassing previous records from 2007 and 1994. (corroborated by 4 sources) - The average surface air temperature in July was 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Economic losses in Europe due to heatwaves, including wildfires and agricultural impacts, could reach 180 billion euros. (corroborated by 2 sources) - Extreme heat forced several nuclear power plants to halt operations due to cooling water shortages. (corroborated by 2 sources) - July 2026 exceeded the critical +1.5 °C warming threshold compared to pre-industrial levels. (corroborated by 2 sources) - Global sea surface temperatures reached their highest levels ever recorded for the month of July. (single source) - Several thousand excess deaths were registered in the peak heatwave week in Europe. (single source) - Land temperatures rose by +2.03 °C during July 2026. (single source) - Ocean surface temperatures were +1.25 °C above the reference period. (single source) - There is a 69% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year ever recorded. (single source) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-12: Global temperatures surpass +1.5 °C threshold in July 2026 July 2026 surpassed the +1.5 °C warming threshold, marking the second hottest July on record. Europe faces extreme heat, wildfires, and rising mortality, prompting calls for binding climate adaptation laws. 19 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/global-temperatures-surpass-15-c-threshold-in-july-2026 ### 2026-08-09: Climate warnings rise amid record heat and wildfire risks Climate scientists warn 2026 could be a record-breaking hot year due to El Niño and global warming, coinciding with rising forest fires and extreme weather patterns globally and in Bulgaria. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/climate-warnings-rise-amid-record-heat-and-wildfire-risks --- Cite as: Global temperature and heatwave escalation. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/global-temperature-and-heatwave-escalation