# Guatemala energy supply and demand instability

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/guatemala-energy-supply-and-demand-instability
> Updated: 2026-09-28T11:56:34.000Z. Sources: 82. Developments: 2.

Guatemala is experiencing increasing energy instability as electricity demand outpaces local generation and transmission capacity. Between January and July 2026, the country faced a 738 GWh deficit, forcing a reliance on imports from Mexico and other Central American nations to cover approximately 8% of demand. This shift from energy surpluses to a deficit is attributed to a lack of new generation projects between 2020 and 2024.

Compounding these structural issues, drought conditions and the El Niño phenomenon have significantly reduced hydroelectric output. By late September 2026, reports indicated that water levels in reservoirs such as Chixoy have dropped, further straining the system. In August 2026, hydroelectricity provided 24.47% of the National Interconnected System's supply, down from 38.61% in August 2025.

This decline has necessitated an increased use of fossil fuels, with petroleum-based steam turbines providing 53.68% of production in June 2026. While hydroelectricity has declined, solar energy production has trended upward. Photovoltaic plants contributed 10.79% of generation in August 2026, compared to 4.33% in August 2025.

The broader El Niño phenomenon is driving a severe climate crisis across Latin America. In Guatemala, the impact has escalated into a humanitarian concern; UNICEF warns that the phenomenon threatens to deepen droughts and impact crops, particularly in the Dry Corridor. Approximately 209,965 children under five across 70 municipalities now face acute malnutrition risks. The phenomenon is expected to persist with a “nearly 100% probability” until at least February 2027, with some projections suggesting it could reach a “very strong” intensity.

## Claims

- Approximately 86 million people and 25.8 million children in Latin America and the Caribbean face risks from El Niño. (disputed)
- Up to 30 million people, including nine million children, may require humanitarian assistance due to the phenomenon. (disputed)
- In Honduras, roughly 15,000 children under five are at risk of acute malnutrition in 103 municipalities. (disputed)
- In Guatemala, approximately 209,965 children under five in 70 climate-vulnerable municipalities are at risk of acute malnutrition. (disputed)
- The WMO states that El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- WMO forecasts show nearly a 100% probability that the phenomenon will persist until February 2027. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- Researcher Matilde Rusticucci warns that El Niño impacts will intensify during the spring months in Argentina. (corroborated by 4 sources)
- The La Concepción reservoir in Tegucigalpa remains at a critical level of 24.75% capacity. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- El Niño is expected to reach very high intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Staple food prices have increased by an average of one percent this year compared to 2025. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- El Niño is expected to disrupt global agricultural production, particularly in Asia and Africa, leading to higher prices. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Production shortages are expected to cause price spikes for chocolate, coffee, and olive oil. (corroborated by 2 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-28: El Niño phenomenon intensifies, driving global climate risks

The intensifying El Niño phenomenon is driving severe climate risks across the Americas, including acute malnutrition in Central America, water scarcity in Colombia and Costa Rica, and shifting rainfall in the|

80 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/guatemala-hydroelectric-production-declines-due-to-drought

### 2026-09-18: Guatemala faces energy shortages as demand outpaces generation

Guatemala faces potential power shortages as electricity demand exceeds local generation, forcing a growing reliance on imports from Mexico and Central America to cover the deficit.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/guatemala-faces-energy-shortages-as-demand-outpaces-generation

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Cite as: Guatemala energy supply and demand instability. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/guatemala-energy-supply-and-demand-instability