# Hong Kong 2026 GDP growth

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/hong-kong-2026-gdp-growth
> Updated: 2026-08-05T18:05:03.000Z. Sources: 17. Developments: 2.

Preliminary data released at the end of July showed Hong Kong’s real GDP expanding 4.3% year‑on‑year in Q2 2026, a slowdown from the 5.9% rise recorded in Q1. The government attributed the growth to strong external trade and resilient domestic demand and expected steady expansion in the second half of the year.

Swiss bank UBS upgraded its forecast for Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth to 4.5%, up from an earlier 3.3% estimate, citing continued strength in high‑value‑added exports, robust financial‑market activity, steady private consumption and a rebound in tourism, as well as the territory’s five‑year development plan. Official statistics indicated that GDP grew 5.1% year‑on‑year in the first half of 2026, surpassing market expectations.

On 5 August, UBS reaffirmed its 4.5% growth projection, emphasizing the same drivers and noting that the outlook is likely to bolster investor sentiment throughout the region.

## Claims

- UBS raised its 2026 Hong Kong GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.3%. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- High‑value‑added exports will continue to drive Hong Kong's growth. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Private consumption in Hong Kong will grow at a steady pace. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Tourism recovery will support Hong Kong's service exports. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Hong Kong's first five‑year plan is expected to unlock new growth potential. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Support from central authorities will continue to favor Hong Kong's future growth. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Official data show Hong Kong's GDP grew 5.1% year‑on‑year in the first half of 2026, above market expectations. (corroborated by 3 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-08-05: UBS raises Hong Kong 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%

UBS lifts Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, citing strong exports, resilient markets and tourism, after official data showed 5.1% growth in H1 2026.

14 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ubs-raises-hong-kong-2026-gdp-growth-forecast-to-45

### 2026-07-31: Hong Kong GDP expands 4.3% year‑on‑year in 2026 Q2

Hong Kong's real GDP rose 4.3% YoY in Q2 2026, slower than Q1’s 5.9%, driven by strong trade and domestic demand.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/hong-kong-gdp-expands-43-yearonyear-in-2026-q2

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Cite as: Hong Kong 2026 GDP growth. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/hong-kong-2026-gdp-growth