# Indonesia restructuring for downstreaming and energy

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/indonesia-restructuring-for-downstreaming-and-energy
> Updated: 2026-10-19T16:25:00.000Z. Sources: 25. Developments: 5.

President Prabowo Subianto has launched 11 new projects at the Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP) to advance the nation’s nickel downstreaming policy. Of these, four projects valued at Rp60 trillion are already operational and exporting, while seven others have commenced groundbreaking with an investment value of US$6.8 billion. This policy, which mandates domestic processing of raw minerals, has significantly impacted the economy. According to World Bank data, the full ban on raw nickel exports implemented in 2020 contributed to Indonesia’s economic growth of 32.1% through 2024. Indonesia currently accounts for 58% of global nickel production. 

Despite this growth, the sector maintains a heavy reliance on China, which has invested US$65 billion in Indonesia’s nickel industry over the last decade and controls approximately 75% of the country’s refining capacity. In 2024, nickel exports to China represented 82% of Indonesia’s total nickel exports. Economist Faisal Basri noted that the high level of Chinese ownership and market dominance may result in ‘only 10% of profits flowing to domestic companies’. 

During the first two years of the Prabowo administration, spanning Q4 2024 through Q3 2026, national investment realization reached Rp3,923.2 trillion, creating 5,485,944 jobs. This total comprised Rp1,998.7 trillion (50.9%) in domestic investment and Rp1,924.5 trillion (49.1%) in foreign investment. Investment in Special Economic Zones (KEK) reached a cumulative Rp382.1 trillion. Looking toward the end of 2026, the National Economic Council (DEN) projects that downstream product exports—including nickel, aluminum, and lithium battery components—will reach US$50 billion, a 45% increase from US$34.5 billion in 2024. Aluminum downstream exports are specifically projected to reach approximately US$7.2 billion in 2026.

## Claims

- Investment realization through Q3 2026 reached Rp1,539.2 trillion. (disputed by 2 sources)
- Total investment during the Prabowo administration (Q4 2024 to Q3 2026) reached Rp3,923.2 trillion. (disputed)
- Bahlil Lahadalia receives only one salary despite holding dual roles as Coordinating Minister and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- The Coordinating Ministry for Downstreaming and Energy Transition is currently utilizing the budget of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Downstream mineral exports are projected to reach USD 50 billion by the end of 2026. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Aluminum downstream exports are projected to reach USD 7.2 billion in 2026. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Q4 2026 APBN spending is estimated to reach Rp1,300 trillion. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Semi-finished nickel products account for 50 to 60 percent of Indonesia's national output. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Foreign investment (PMA) accounted for Rp1,924.5 trillion. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Cumulative investment in Special Economic Zones (KEK) reached Rp382.1 trillion. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Global nickel oversupply has reached approximately 2.5 million tons. (single source)
- Indonesia is considering a moratorium on the development of semi-finished nickel smelters. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-10-19: Indonesia reports Rp3,923.2 trillion investment over two years of Prabowo administration

Indonesia's investment reached Rp3,923.2 trillion under President Prabowo through Q3 2026, while downstream mineral exports are projected to hit USD 50 billion by year-end.

14 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/indonesia-to-boost-national-exports-across-all-sectors

### 2026-10-17: Indonesia pushes nickel downstreaming amid record investment

Indonesia's H1 2026 investment hit Rp1,010.6 trillion. To combat nickel oversupply, the government is considering a moratorium on intermediate smelters to push for 100% domestic value-added manufacturing.

7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/indonesia-pushes-nickel-downstreaming-amid-record-investment

### 2026-10-08: Indonesia weighs nickel smelter moratorium to boost advanced downstreaming

Indonesia considers a moratorium on semi-finished nickel smelters to encourage advanced downstreaming while leveraging its critical mineral reserves to support the global AI and digital infrastructure sectors.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/indonesia-weighs-nickel-smelter-moratorium-to-boost-advanced-downstreaming

### 2026-10-06: Indonesia considers nickel smelter moratorium amid global oversupply

Indonesia is considering a moratorium on semi-finished nickel smelters to address global oversupply and is shifting focus toward high-value downstream products to boost export revenues.

10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/bahlil-lahadalia-to-lead-new-coordinating-ministry-for-downstreaming

### 2026-10-01: Bahlil Lahadalia appointed Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition

Bahlil Lahadalia has been appointed as Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition while remaining Minister of ESDM to accelerate resource value-add and energy security.

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/bahlil-lahadalia-appointed-coordinating-minister-for-downstreaming-and-energy-transition

---
Cite as: Indonesia restructuring for downstreaming and energy. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/indonesia-restructuring-for-downstreaming-and-energy
