# Middle East conflict energy market impact

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/middle-east-conflict-energy-market-impact
> Updated: 2026-08-11T05:36:43.000Z. Sources: 5. Developments: 2.

The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted global energy markets and production forecasts.

In late July 2026, Baker Hughes reported that the conflict prompted oil and gas producers to adopt a cautious stance, leading to forecasts of a modest decline in annual spending for 2026. While growth in North America, Latin America, and offshore Africa was expected to offset lower spending in Europe and the Middle East, the company warned of revenue hits in its Industrial Energy Technology segment due to the conflict.

By mid-August 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) further revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downward, predicting a decrease of 1.6 million barrels per day. The IEA attributed these shifts to geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, describing the situation as ‘the largest disruption to global oil production ever recorded.’ The agency noted that supply chain disruptions have reduced the availability of petroleum products and contributed to a decline in global oil reserves.

## Claims

- The IEA has revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downward. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting global oil supply and availability. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- The revised 2026 global oil consumption level is set at 103.29 million barrels per day. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Global oil production is expected to decrease by an average of 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Global oil reserves have fallen below 7,900 million barrels since last April. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-08-11: IEA revises 2026 global oil demand forecast downward

The IEA has lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast to a 1.6 million barrel per day decrease, citing Middle East conflicts and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/iea-forecasts-limited-global-oil-supply-growth-amid-us-iran-tensions

### 2026-07-27: Baker Hughes forecasts modest decline in oil‑gas spending for 2026

Baker Hughes expects modest global oil‑gas spending cuts in 2026, offset by growth in Latin America and Africa, while Middle East tensions pressure revenues; shares rose >6% after earnings beat.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/baker-hughes-forecasts-modest-decline-in-global-oil-and-gas-spending-for-2026

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Cite as: Middle East conflict energy market impact. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/middle-east-conflict-energy-market-impact