# Middle East economic impact of Iran conflict > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/middle-east-economic-impact-of-iran-conflict > Updated: 2026-10-24T06:56:23.000Z. Sources: 46. Developments: 6. The ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to drive significant economic instability across the Middle East. While the IMF previously predicted a regional GDP contraction of 0.3% for the Middle East and Central Asia, new projections for 2026 indicate a 1.3% contraction for the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP). The World Bank has provided a more severe outlook, projecting an average contraction of 2.1% for the region, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies expected to contract by 4.3% to 4.8%. Disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global crude oil, have severely impacted oil-exporting nations. The IMF anticipates sharp declines for Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Specifically, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are projected to see real GDP declines of 16.7%, 16%, and 15.6%, respectively. Saudi Arabia is expected to contract by 2%, though it has mitigated some disruptions via its East-West Pipeline. Conversely, Oman is the only GCC nation projected to grow in 2026 at 4.1%, while oil importers like Egypt (5.1%) and Morocco (4.5%) show more resilience. Internal instability in Iran has reached a critical point, characterized by severe currency instability, a daily shortage of 10 million liters of gasoline, and the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad. Regional trade is also hampered by massive congestion at border crossings like Bazargan and Rimdan. Despite these downturns, both the IMF and World Bank forecast a massive rebound in 2027, provided the conflict abates and shipping normalizes. ## Claims - The IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction in economic output for the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan in 2026. (disputed by 6 sources) - The IMF predicts the Middle East and Central Asia region will experience a 0.3% economic contraction in 2026. (disputed) - Oil-exporting economies are more heavily affected by disruptions to energy production and shipping than oil importers. (corroborated by 6 sources) - The IMF baseline assumes the conflict will abate in early 2027. (corroborated by 5 sources) - Global growth is projected to be 3.1% in 2026. (corroborated by 5 sources) - Global growth is projected to be 3.4% in 2027. (corroborated by 5 sources) - Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia is forecasted at 5.2% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. (corroborated by 4 sources) - The World Bank predicts a 4.3% average contraction for the six GCC economies this year due to the impact of the war in Iran. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Middle East airline passenger traffic decreased by 14.6% in August compared to the previous year. (corroborated by 3 sources) - QatarEnergy extended its force majeure notice until early December, affecting scheduled LNG shipments. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Middle East crude oil exports surpassed pre-war levels for 14 days during September. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The economic downturn in the MENAP region is driven by the US-Israeli-led war against Iran. (corroborated by 3 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-10-24: IMF forecasts divergent economic growth across Middle East and North Africa IMF projections for 2026 show a split regional outlook: major contractions in Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, while oil-importing nations like Egypt and Morocco are expected to maintain growth. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/imf-forecasts-divergent-economic-growth-across-middle-east-and-north-africa ### 2026-10-22: IMF forecasts MENAP economic contraction in 2026 due to Middle East conflict The IMF forecasts a 1.3% economic contraction for the MENAP region in 2026 due to Middle East conflict disruptions, followed by a projected 6.6% rebound in 2027. 16 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/imf-forecasts-13-economic-contraction-for-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan ### 2026-10-18: IMF predicts Middle East economic contraction in 2026 The IMF predicts a 0.3% economic contraction for the Middle East and Central Asia in 2026, driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while maintaining a 3.1% global growth forecast for 2026. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/imf-predicts-middle-east-economic-contraction-in-2026 ### 2026-10-15: IMF warns Middle East conflict threatens regional economies The IMF warns that Middle East conflicts and disruptions to energy and shipping routes pose major risks to regional economies, forecasting a 1.3% contraction for the MENA and Pakistan region in 2026. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/imf-warns-middle-east-conflict-threatens-regional-economies ### 2026-10-08: Middle East economies face contraction amid Iran war and energy disruptions The war in Iran is driving a projected 4.3% economic contraction in GCC nations, disrupting regional gas supplies, reducing airline traffic, and causing severe fuel shortages and trade delays in Iran. 12 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/world-bank-gulf-economies-to-contract-43-amid-iran-war ### 2026-10-06: World Bank forecasts Middle East economic contraction in 2026 The World Bank forecasts a 2.1% economic contraction for the Middle East in 2026 due to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with a potential 10.3% rebound for Gulf economies in 2027. 11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/world-bank-forecasts-103-growth-for-gulf-economies-in-2027 --- Cite as: Middle East economic impact of Iran conflict. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/middle-east-economic-impact-of-iran-conflict