# North Indian Ocean cyclone forecasts

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/north-indian-ocean-cyclone-forecasts
> Updated: 2026-09-13T10:26:49.000Z. Sources: 7. Developments: 2.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has forecasted the formation of three powerful tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, specifically within the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, between October and December 2026.

Initial data analysis indicates a significant increase in storm intensity. The projected combined Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is estimated at approximately 13.06 × 10⁶ knots³, which represents an 83% increase over the average PDI recorded for the previous 44 cyclones studied between 1982 and 2025. This period follows the expected withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which is projected to begin in northwestern India around September 19.

While these systems pose risks of heavy rainfall, high winds, and storm surges to coastal areas, they may also offer benefits to drought-stricken regions. In Karnataka, the predicted rainfall could increase inflows into major reservoirs, potentially mitigating water crises affecting drinking supplies and agriculture. Other regions, including the coasts of Gujarat and Maharashtra, may also experience heavy precipitation from these systems. Forecasts suggest heavy rainfall may also extend to Tamil Nadu and parts of Andhra Pradesh.

## Claims

- Three strong cyclones are expected to form in the northern Indian Ocean between October and December. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Heavy rainfall is possible along the coasts of Gujarat and Maharashtra due to the influence of these cyclones. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- The cumulative energy of the potential cyclones is estimated to be 83% higher than the 44-year historical average. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- The cyclones may bring heavy rainfall to Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, potentially replenishing reservoirs. (single source)
- The southwest monsoon is expected to begin its withdrawal from northwestern India around September 19. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-13: ISRO forecasts high-intensity cyclones for North Indian Ocean

ISRO forecasts three potential cyclones in the North Indian Ocean from October to December 2026, with storm energy estimated to be 83% higher than the 44-year historical average.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/indian-racing-festival-2026-aris-kiriakou-leads-f4-championship

### 2026-09-11: ISRO forecasts three powerful cyclones in North Indian Ocean

ISRO forecasts three powerful cyclones in the North Indian Ocean between October and December 2026, with an estimated strength 83% higher than the 44-year average.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/isro-forecasts-three-powerful-cyclones-in-north-indian-ocean

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Cite as: North Indian Ocean cyclone forecasts. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/north-indian-ocean-cyclone-forecasts