# Pará gubernatorial and Senate elections

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/par-gubernatorial-and-senate-elections
> Updated: 2026-09-28T10:00:48.000Z. Sources: 34. Developments: 2.

Polling data for the 2026 elections in Pará continues to show a competitive landscape for the governorship and the Senate.

In the gubernatorial race, Hana Ghassan (MDB) maintains her lead. Recent reports from RealTime Big Data and Inteligov/EXAME indicate that Ghassan’s share of valid votes fluctuates between 33% and 52% depending on the methodology used. New data from Real Time Big Data shows Ghassan holding 44% of intended votes in a stimulated scenario, while Daniel Santos (Podemos) follows with 37%. When considering only valid votes, Ghassan’s lead increases to 52%, a margin that potentially secures a first-round victory.

Regarding the Senate race, former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) previously led with 25% of intended votes. A Quaest poll confirms Barbalho leading with 25%. Recent Real Time Big Data results indicate Barbalho holds a 10-point lead with 25% of the vote. The contest for the state’s second Senate seat remains a focal point, with candidates Éder Mauro (PL), Chicão (União), and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) previously described as being in a technical tie.

## Claims

- Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 44% of intended votes in a Real Time Big Data poll. (disputed by 3 sources)
- Hana Ghassan reaches 52% of valid votes in the Pará gubernatorial poll. (disputed)
- In a simulated second round for the Pernambuco governorship, João Campos leads Raquel Lyra with 46% to 45%. (disputed)
- In a Real Time Big Data poll, João Campos has 45% and Raquel Lyra has 43% for the Pernambuco governorship. (disputed)
- Daniel Santos holds 37% of the voting intentions in the Pará gubernatorial poll. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 44% of valid votes in a Real Time Big Data poll. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Marília Arraes leads the Senate race in Pernambuco with 25% of the votes according to Real Time Big Data. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- In an Ipespe poll, João Campos leads Raquel Lyra in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- An Ipespe poll shows João Campos with 46% and Raquel Lyra with 45% in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-28: Brazil election updates: Hana Ghassan leads in Pará as regional campaigns intensify

Brazilian political activity intensifies ahead of the 2026 elections, featuring Hana Ghassan's lead in Pará, João Campos's social proposals in Pernambuco, and debates over betting bans and judicial rulings.

32 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/par-political-polls-show-helder-barbalho-leading-senate-race

### 2026-09-18: Hana Ghassan leads Pará gubernatorial race in new poll

Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 43.17% in a new poll, proposing a transparent digital system for public health waiting lists.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/hana-ghassan-leads-par-gubernatorial-race-in-new-poll

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Cite as: Pará gubernatorial and Senate elections. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/par-gubernatorial-and-senate-elections