# Pemex financial stability and Mexican fiscal risk > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/pemex-financial-stability-and-mexican-fiscal-risk > Updated: 2026-10-21T16:16:44.000Z. Sources: 36. Developments: 6. Moody’s Ratings continues to identify Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) as a persistent risk to Mexico’s national finances. As of the first half of 2026, Pemex’s financial debt stood at approximately 1.353 trillion pesos ($76.27 billion). While this is a reduction from 2018 levels, the company’s low investment-grade rating necessitates federal guarantees through the sale of Mexican bonds, increasing national indebtedness. Moody’s estimates that Pemex may require an average of $10 billion in annual federal support for the next three to five years to meet debt maturities. This contradicts government projections that transfers would cease in 2027, especially as the 2027 economic package already includes 81 billion pesos (roughly $4.56 billion) in support via the Ministry of Energy. Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Pemex’s international long-term rating at BB+ with a stable outlook, noting an improved debt-to-EBITDA ratio, though characterizing the financial structure as weak due to tight liquidity. Operational inefficiencies also persist; domestic refining is reportedly more expensive than importing derivatives, resulting in a $5 billion deficit. In October 2026, HR Ratings downgraded Mexico’s long-term sovereign credit rating from BBB+ to BBB with a stable outlook, citing deteriorating fiscal balances and a downward revision of economic growth. The agency projects the Public Sector Financial Requirements deficit will reach 4.6% of GDP in 2026. Following the downgrade, the Mexican Ministry of Finance defended the nation’s stability, asserting that Mexico maintains investment grade status across all eight major rating agencies. Internal discussions have since focused on redefining Pemex support and addressing fiscal pressures from subsidies and public spending. ## Claims - HR Ratings reduced Mexico's long-term sovereign credit rating from BBB+ to BBB with a stable outlook. (corroborated by 10 sources) - The agency estimates Mexico's Public Sector Financial Requirements deficit will reach 4.6% of GDP in 2026. (corroborated by 7 sources) - Pemex debt decreased by more than 20 billion dollars in less than two years. (corroborated by 5 sources) - HR Ratings lowered Pemex's global long-term credit rating to HR BBB(G) with a stable outlook. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Pemex's national long-term credit rating was maintained at HR AAA. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Pemex currently processes more than 1.1 million barrels of crude per day. (corroborated by 4 sources) - The Mexican Ministry of Finance stated that the country maintains investment grade status with all eight rating agencies. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Pemex will invest approximately 1.84 trillion pesos between 2025 and 2030. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Pemex debt is at its lowest level since 2014. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Crude refining has increased by 81% compared to 2018 levels. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The proportion of fuels produced by Pemex for the domestic market rose from 24% in 2018 to 87% currently. (corroborated by 3 sources) - HR Ratings lowered its GDP growth forecast for Mexico to 1.3% for 2026. (corroborated by 2 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-10-21: Pemex announces 1.8 trillion peso investment plan through 2030 Pemex plans to invest 1.8 trillion pesos by 2030 to boost hydrocarbon production and refining, while reporting a 20 billion dollar debt reduction. 10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/pemex-to-invest-18-trillion-pesos-through-2030 ### 2026-10-19: Mexico sovereign debt rating downgraded by HR Ratings HR Ratings downgraded Mexico's sovereign debt rating, citing deteriorating public finances and a projected GDP growth of only 1.5%, prompting discussions on Pemex support. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mexico-sovereign-debt-rating-downgraded-by-hr-ratings-1 ### 2026-10-15: Mexico credit rating downgraded by HR Ratings amid fiscal concerns HR Ratings downgraded Mexico's sovereign credit rating to BBB and Pemex's global rating to BBB(G), citing fiscal deterioration and lower growth projections, despite Pemex's operational progress. 13 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mexico-sovereign-debt-rating-downgraded-by-hr-ratings ### 2026-09-29: Pemex debt projected to fall to $155 billion by 2028 Moody’s projects Pemex will reduce its debt to $155 billion by 2028 with government support, even as the Dos Bocas refinery faces operational risks due to a mismatch in available crude oil types. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/pemex-debt-projected-to-fall-to-155-billion-by-2028 ### 2026-09-27: Pemex poses financial risk to Mexico, Moody's warns Moody's warns that Pemex may require $10 billion in annual government support through 2030 to cover debt, citing refining inefficiencies and risks to Mexico's national finances. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/pemex-poses-financial-risk-to-mexico-moodys-warns ### 2026-09-24: Pemex requires $10 billion in annual government support, Moody’s warns Moody’s Ratings estimates Pemex will need $10 billion in annual government support for at least five years, while Fitch Ratings maintains a BB+ rating despite ongoing financial structural weaknesses. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/pemex-requires-annual-government-transfers-of-10-billion-moodys-predicts --- Cite as: Pemex financial stability and Mexican fiscal risk. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/pemex-financial-stability-and-mexican-fiscal-risk