# Peter Schiff US economic risk warnings > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/peter-schiff-us-economic-risk-warnings > Updated: 2026-10-23T07:43:00.000Z. Sources: 4. Developments: 2. Economist Peter Schiff has issued warnings regarding potential instability in the United States economy. Initially, Schiff highlighted significant risks within the mortgage market, suggesting that high interest rates could cause the market value of long-term, fixed-rate debt to decline by as much as $3 trillion. He noted that this potential loss in valuation could exceed the realized losses from mortgage defaults seen during the 2007–2010 financial crisis. Schiff subsequently expanded his warnings to include broader recession risks, specifically pointing to the artificial intelligence sector. He suggested that rising borrowing costs might pressure large-scale technology investments, potentially causing an ‘AI bubble burst’ that could expose wider economic vulnerabilities. While Schiff anticipates a downturn, prediction market data from Polymarket indicates a divergence in sentiment, placing the probability of a 2026 recession at 7%, while the likelihood for 2027 rises to 35%. ## Timeline ### 2026-10-23: Economist Peter Schiff warns of US recession risks Economist Peter Schiff warns that an AI sector bubble and rising borrowing costs could trigger a US recession, despite prediction markets showing low recession odds for 2026. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/economist-peter-schiff-warns-of-us-recession-risks ### 2026-10-19: Peter Schiff warns of $3 trillion risk in U.S. mortgage market Economist Peter Schiff warns that rising interest rates could cause up to $3 trillion in market value losses in the U.S. mortgage market, potentially surpassing the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/peter-schiff-warns-of-3-trillion-risk-in-us-mortgage-market --- Cite as: Peter Schiff US economic risk warnings. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/peter-schiff-us-economic-risk-warnings