# Polish inflation trends and economic forecasts > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/polish-inflation-trends-and-economic-forecasts > Updated: 2026-09-09T14:12:41.000Z. Sources: 43. Developments: 4. In July 2026, the National Bank of Poland reported that core inflation rose to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3% in June. This increase was attributed to the expiration of the ‘Lower Fuel Price’ package and rising costs in sectors such as transport, recreation, sport, and culture. By late August, the Polish Ministry of Finance released a 2027 state budget draft containing long-term inflation projections, estimating average annual inflation rates of 2.5% in 2028, 2.6% in 2029, and 2.5% in 2030. On August 31, 2026, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported that inflation rose to 3.4% year-on-year in August, exceeding analyst forecasts. This uptick was primarily driven by a 24.2% year-on-year surge in fuel prices. On September 9, 2026, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to maintain the reference interest rate at 3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. NBP President Adam Glapiński indicated that rates are expected to remain stable through the end of the year and into mid-2027. Concurrently, the Polish mortgage market is seeing a structural shift as PKO Bank Polski has introduced mortgage loans based on the new POLSTR index, which is intended to replace WIBOR by 2027. Additionally, analysts from Pekao have warned that household energy prices in Poland could increase by 19% by 2027, driven by rising gas costs. ## Claims - The year-on-year inflation rate in August 2026 was 3.4%. (disputed by 11 sources) - Croatia's inflation rate in August was 4.1% year-on-year. (disputed by 4 sources) - Fuel prices for private transport rose by 24.2% year-on-year. (corroborated by 11 sources) - The Monetary Policy Council decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels. (corroborated by 11 sources) - The month-on-month inflation rate in August 2026 was 0.4%. (corroborated by 10 sources) - Market analysts expected the year-on-year inflation rate to be 3.1%. (corroborated by 8 sources) - The reference interest rate is set at 3.75%. (corroborated by 8 sources) - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices decreased by 0.9% year-on-year. (corroborated by 5 sources) - Energy prices (electricity, gas, and other fuels) rose by 4.1% year-on-year. (corroborated by 5 sources) - The European Central Bank increased key interest rates by 25 basis points. (corroborated by 5 sources) - The ECB deposit rate has reached 2.50%. (corroborated by 5 sources) - Poland's GDP grew by 3.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. (corroborated by 3 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-09: Central banks adjust interest rates amid inflation and energy concerns The ECB has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, while Poland's RPP maintains rates at 3.75% amid rising inflation. PKO Bank Polski has also introduced the new POLSTR index for mortgages. 26 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-monetary-policy-council-maintains-interest-rates-at-375 ### 2026-08-31: Poland and Croatia report rising inflation rates in August 2026 Inflation in Poland rose to 3.4% in August 2026, driven by high fuel and energy costs, while Croatia reported a 4.1% annual inflation rate, largely due to rising energy prices. 23 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-inflation-rises-to-34-in-august-exceeding-expectations ### 2026-08-28: Poland forecasts stable inflation through 2030 in new budget draft The Polish government forecasts annual inflation will stabilize between 2.5% and 2.6% from 2028 to 2030, according to the 2027 budget draft justification. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-forecasts-stable-inflation-through-2030-in-new-budget-draft ### 2026-08-14: Poland core inflation rises to 3.1% in July Poland's core inflation rose to 3.1% in July from 3% in June, according to NBP data. Headline CPI reached 3%, driven by increases in transport, fuel, and recreation costs. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-core-inflation-rises-to-31-in-july --- Cite as: Polish inflation trends and economic forecasts. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/polish-inflation-trends-and-economic-forecasts