# Poland elections, party turmoil, polls and probes > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/polish-law-and-justice-party-grapples-with-internal-split-over-primeminister-candidate > Updated: 2026-08-05T06:17:00.000Z. Sources: 70. Developments: 48. Poland’s political landscape remains turbulent as the 2027 parliamentary election approaches. Repeated opinion polls through June 2026 show the Civic Coalition (KO) consistently ahead of Law and Justice (PiS), but the gap has narrowed: KO’s support hovers around 29‑32 % while PiS ranges from 23‑25 %, with the right‑wing Confederation and Grzegorz Braun’s Crown faction gaining 9‑13 % each. A United Surveys poll (mid‑June) projected a combined opposition majority that could outnumber PiS in the Sejm. Within PiS, internal divisions persist. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Education Minister Przemysław Czarnek staged a joint rally in Gorzów Wielkopolski in early June, a move presented as de‑escalation, yet a May poll showed 40 % of respondents favour replacing Czarnek as the party’s prime‑minister candidate. The party launched the “Po Pierwsze Polska” association in early June and scheduled a large convention in Kłodzko for 5 July, where Jarosław Kaczyński will unveil an accountability agenda. At the same time, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński outlined a “big‑tent” coalition strategy to absorb smaller right‑wing groups. Legal scrutiny continues. The long‑running “two‑towers” investigation into a cancelled skyscraper project linked to PiS was dismissed by prosecutors in late June, prompting sharp reactions from both PiS and opposition figures. Separate probes into the Polish National Foundation and a recent poisoning allegation against President Karol Nawrocki have kept the justice system in the spotlight. Centrist politics saw a new development with the launch of Unia Centrum on 12 July, led by Climate Minister Paulina Hennig‑Kloska after a split from Polska 2050. The party aims to join the governing coalition and will hold a program convention in September. President Nawrocki’s popularity remains high; trust ratings peaked at 54.8 % in late June, though a July‑August poll recorded a modest decline to 47 % positive. ## Claims - Among supporters of the opposition, 94 % view Nawrocki’s first year positively. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Karol Nawrocki used his veto power 41 times in his first year. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Karol Nawrocki completed one year in office on 6 August 2026. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The same United Surveys poll reported that 40.5 % of respondents view his presidency negatively. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Among supporters of the governing coalition, 89 % view Nawrocki’s first year negatively. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The blocked measures could have added 7.3 billion zł to the state budget, rising to 8.2 billion zł including missed sugar‑tax revenue for the National Health Fund. (corroborated by 3 sources) - 56 % of Poles view President Karol Nawrocki’s first year positively. (corroborated by 3 sources) - 40.5 % of Poles view President Karol Nawrocki’s first year negatively. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Foreign‑policy minister Radosław Sikorski warned that the president’s actions risk a shift toward a more presidential system. (corroborated by 2 sources) - An anniversary ceremony is scheduled for 6 August 2026 on the grounds of the Presidential Palace, with President Nawrocki expected to address the public. (single source) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-05: Poland's President Karol Nawrocki's first year sparks public split Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki’s first year sees 56% public support but deep partisan split, 41 vetoes costing up to 8.2 bn zł, and criticism from PM Tusk and FM Sikorski. 23 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-president-karol-nawrocki-marks-first-year-with-poll-results-and-anniversary-celebration ### 2026-07-30: Polish Prosecutors Open Investigation into Attempted Poisoning of Presidential Candidate Karol Nawrocki Polish prosecutors are investigating an alleged poisoning of presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki after he fell ill during 2025 campaign events in Ząbkowice Śląskie and Dzierżoniów. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-prosecutors-open-investigation-into-attempted-poisoning-of-presidential-candidate-karol-nawro ### 2026-07-23: Polish Prosecutor Ends 'Two Towers' Fraud Probe Involving Jarosław Kaczyński Polish prosecutors closed the “two towers” fraud probe, finding no evidence Jarosław Kaczyński directed decisions for the Srebrna skyscraper project, and deeming Gerald Birgfellner's claims unfounded. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-prosecutor-ends-two-towers-fraud-probe-involving-jarosaw-kaczyski ### 2026-07-21: Polish President Karol Navrocki investigated for possible poisoning Former security chief claims Polish President Navrocki may have been deliberately poisoned during the 2025 campaign; the president refused hospital care and a Polish prosecutor’s office opened an investigation. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-president-karol-navrocki-investigated-for-possible-poisoning ### 2026-07-19: Polish New Left leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty calls for coalition with Party Razem New Left leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty said he hopes to unite with Party Razem for upcoming elections, while questioning their willingness and noting past controversial votes. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-new-left-leader-wodzimierz-czarzasty-calls-for-coalition-with-party-razem ### 2026-07-14: Poland's Law and Justice party under growing political pressure Polls show Poland's Law and Justice party trailing right‑wing rivals, while the party reacts anxiously to a probe into the Polish National Foundation. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-law-and-justice-party-under-growing-political-pressure ### 2026-07-12: Poland’s New Centrist Party Unia Centrum Launched Unia Centrum, a new centrist party led by minister Paulina Hennig‑Kloska, was launched in Poland, stemming from a split in Polska 2050; Ryszard Petru declined to join and plans his own liberal party. 11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-new-centrist-party-unia-centrum-unveiled ### 2026-07-11: Patryk Jaki says PiS‑Confederation coalition could topple current government Patryk Jaki said a PiS‑Confederation coalition could topple the current government, warned he’ll quit if the party softens its EU stance, dismissed a second “Polexit”, and cited Poland’s net‑payer status and EU 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/patryk-jaki-says-pisconfederation-coalition-could-topple-current-government ### 2026-07-11: Donald Tusk’s government faces record low approval in new poll New polls show 51 % of Poles rating Donald Tusk’s government negatively and only a third rating it positively, highlighting rising discontent ahead of the 2025 elections. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/donald-tusks-government-faces-record-low-approval-in-new-poll ### 2026-07-10: Polish Law and Justice Party suspends MP Szymon Giżyński amid Częstochowa referendum clash PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński suspended MP Szymon Giżyński after he opposed the party’s push for a Częstochowa referendum to recall the mayor, who faces corruption charges. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-law-and-justice-party-suspends-mp-szymon-giyski-amid-czstochowa-referendum-clash ### 2026-07-10: Polish government support falls amid South Hospital scandal Polls show 51 % disapprove of Tusk’s government, KO drops to 31 % support, PiS slight gain, health sector rating 73 % negative, and about 23 % demand resignations after the South Hospital scandal. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-poll-shows-civic-coalition-loses-support-pis-slight-gain ### 2026-07-09: Polish President Karol Nawrocki edges ahead in approval poll A July 2026 SW Research poll shows 40.2% of Poles view President Karol Nawrocki positively versus 38.2% negative, while CBOS places his trust at 53%, up five points. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-president-karol-nawrockis-approval-rating-split-in-new-poll ### 2026-07-05: Polish prosecutors face promotion stalemate over halted nominations Poland's Lex Super Omnia protests the Justice Ministry's refusal to appoint higher‑level prosecutors, citing lack of transparency and staffing shortages across regional offices. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-prosecutors-face-promotion-stalemate-over-halted-nominations ### 2026-07-04: Polish President Karol Nawrocki's alleged poisoning fuels political debate President Karol Nawrocki claims a 2025 campaign poisoning attempt; prosecutors investigate while former President Kwaśniewski and journalist Stankiewicz dismiss it as baseless. 6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/karol-nawrocki-claims-poisoning-attempt-during-2025-polish-campaign ### 2026-07-03: Civic Coalition Tops Latest Polish Opinion Poll A poll for Super Express shows Civic Coalition at 32.45%, PiS at 24.97%, and Confederation at 12.75%; Morawiecki’s Development Plus would get just 2%—far below the electoral threshold. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/civic-coalition-tops-latest-polish-opinion-poll ### 2026-07-01: Polish Prosecutors End 'Two Towers' Corruption Probe Polish prosecutors closed the “two towers” fraud probe, citing no criminal evidence, sparking political criticism over alleged interference. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-prosecutors-end-two-towers-corruption-probe ### 2026-07-01: Poland's Law and Justice Party Schedules Kłodzko Convention to Criticise Governing Coalition Poland's Law and Justice Party will hold a Kłodzko convention on July 5 to allege coalition fraud, cite a hospital scandal, and repeat its anti‑cryptocurrency stance. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-law-and-justice-party-schedules-kodzko-convention-to-criticise-governing-coalition ### 2026-07-01: Karol Nawrocki poisoning allegations spark government and political debate in Poland Karol Nawrocki’s sudden illness during the 2025 campaign has sparked claims of a poisoning attempt, prompting government comments, a prosecutor’s probe, and opposition dismissals as baseless. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/karol-nawrocki-poisoning-allegation-sparks-government-response ### 2026-06-30: Poland's 'two towers' probe dismissed, sparks political backlash Poland’s Warsaw prosecutor dismissed the ‘two towers’ investigation, prompting praise from PiS, criticism and appeal threats from opposition figures, and statements defending prosecutorial independence. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-prosecutors-defend-decision-to-drop-two-towers-investigation-amid-giertych-criticism ### 2026-06-30: Poland's opposition leaders eye joint list and parliamentary club shake‑up Polish opposition figures Paweł Śliz and PSL vice‑premier Władysław Kosiniak‑Kamysz discuss a joint list with Szymon Hołownia and a leadership contest for the Poland 2050 parliamentary club amid low poll scores 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-opposition-leaders-eye-joint-list-and-parliamentary-club-shakeup ### 2026-06-29: Polish poll shows KO lead narrowing as PiS and right‑wing parties gain ground A late‑June poll shows KO at ~29 %, PiS at ~24 %, with right‑wing parties gaining. Simulated seats give KO 165 seats, PiS 135, and a right‑wing bloc a majority, while smaller parties fall below the threshold. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-poll-shows-ko-lead-narrowing-as-pis-and-rightwing-parties-gain-ground ### 2026-06-29: Karol Nawrocki’s alleged campaign poisoning prompts prosecutor investigation Karol Nawrocki claims he was possibly poisoned during his 2025 campaign; prosecutors opened a probe, officials call it serious, police find no crime yet. 20 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/artur-chodzinski-former-cba-agent-linked-to-zondacrypto-and-frontline-foundation-dispute ### 2026-06-28: Poland's ruling PiS plans major July convention as polls show tight race PiS will hold a July 5 convention in Kłodzko to launch a new accountability plan as polls show KO leading with 28 %, PiS at 24 %, and Confederation gaining traction. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-to-unveil-new-accountability-plan-at-pis-convention-in-kodzko ### 2026-06-28: Poland President Karol Nawrocki Hits Record Trust Rating, Boosting Re‑election Prospects Polish President Karol Nawrocki reached a record 54.8% trust rating in an IBRiS poll, the highest ever, with analysts linking the surge to his early‑term agenda, Ukraine stance and political turmoil, boosting a 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-president-karol-nawrocki-achieves-recordhigh-trust-rating ### 2026-06-21: Czarzasty pushes for joint left list in 2027 Polish elections Sejm speaker Czarzasty urges a joint left list for Poland's 2027 election; Zandberg says Czarzasty already backs Tusk, while Senyszyn is open to talks. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-sejm-marshal-czarzasty-urges-left-parties-to-run-together ### 2026-06-20: Jarosław Kaczyński outlines PiS election strategy Jarosław Kaczyński says PiS must adopt a “big tent” to win the next election, while commentators warn the party’s turn to emotive “Bąkiewizacja” tactics could alienate centrist voters. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-outlines-pis-election-strategy ### 2026-06-19: Poland coalition joint list poll shows under 40% public support A June 2026 poll finds only 39.8% of Poles would back a joint list of governing parties, with 42.8% opposed, casting doubt on the coalition’s 2027 election strategy. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-coalition-joint-list-poll-shows-under-40-public-support ### 2026-06-19: Roman Giertych Demands Sanctions After Sejm Clash with Kaczyński and Czarnek Roman Giertych called for disciplinary action against Jarosław Kaczyński and Przemysław Czarnek after a heated Sejm debate over alleged fund misuse and vulgar remarks. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/roman-giertych-sparks-heated-clash-in-polish-sejm-over-polnord-scandal ### 2026-06-18: Jarosław Kaczyński, 77, draws public interest with personal recollections and modest Warsaw home Jarosław Kaczyński turned 77; a repeat of his 2010 interview reveals a youthful emotional involvement, while his modest Warsaw home, filled with books, continues to attract public curiosity. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-77-draws-public-interest-with-personal-recollections-and-modest-warsaw-home ### 2026-06-17: Poland poll shows KO ahead while opposition parties could together command majority United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland shows KO at 29.7%, PiS 24.1% and Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 9.6%, giving the opposition a combined majority of 243 of 460 seats. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/poland-poll-shows-ko-ahead-while-opposition-parties-could-together-command-majority ### 2026-06-16: Jarosław Kaczyński's leadership future and PiS programme debated in Poland Jarosław Kaczyński's grip on PiS is questioned as analysts warn of a potential leadership shake‑up and economists condemn the party’s new tax and energy proposals as unrealistic. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyskis-leadership-future-and-pis-programme-debated-in-poland ### 2026-06-16: Poland's PiS rallies around Morawiecki and Czarnek on election strategy and fertility policy PiS leaders Morawiecki and Czarnek outlined election tactics and disputed Poland's low fertility causes, stressing jobs, housing and family values. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-pis-rallies-around-morawiecki-and-czarnek-on-election-strategy-and-fertility-policy ### 2026-06-13: Karol Nawrocki Leads Polish Trust Poll as Sikorski Spars Over US Trip Karol Nawrocki tops a Polish trust poll, while Radosław Sikorski jokes about Nawrocki’s US UFC trip in a satirical online poll. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/karol-nawrocki-leads-polish-trust-poll-as-sikorski-spars-over-us-trip ### 2026-06-12: Jarosław Kaczyński’s leadership faces mixed public ratings as PiS celebrates 25 years Polls show mixed but mostly positive views of Jarosław Kaczyński as PiS marks 25 years; he also testified in a real‑estate probe and is praised for his long‑term party‑building tactics. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyskis-leadership-faces-mixed-public-ratings-as-pis-celebrates-25-years ### 2026-06-11: Polish polls put Civic Coalition ahead, PiS trailing, and rate Czarnek poorly Polish polls show Civic Coalition leading with ~32%, PiS trailing at ~25‑30%, Confederation ~12%, and 73‑76% voter intent; a separate poll finds 64% view Czarnek as a poor premier. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/koalicja-obywatelska-leads-in-latest-polish-poll-ahead-of-election ### 2026-06-10: Jarosław Kaczyński questioned for nine hours in Warsaw prosecutor’s office Jarosław Kaczyński was interrogated for about nine hours in Warsaw over the “two towers” scandal. He answered all questions, was accompanied by lawyers, and later criticized MP Roman Giertych’s role as a victim 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-interrogated-as-witness-in-warsaw-twotower-fraud-probe ### 2026-06-10: Jarosław Kaczyński interrogated for hours in Warsaw over ‘two towers’ probe Jarosław Kaczyński was questioned for nine hours by Warsaw prosecutors regarding the “two towers” investigation, a case linked to a planned high‑rise project and earlier controversial interrogations. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-interrogated-for-hours-in-warsaw-over-two-towers-probe ### 2026-06-10: Jarosław Kaczyński testifies in two‑tower development probe Jarosław Kaczyński testified to prosecutors about the unfinished two‑tower Warsaw project, sparking scrutiny over alleged cash deals and political‑business ties. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-testifies-in-twotower-development-probe ### 2026-06-09: Poland's PiS launches 'Po Pierwsze Polska' association to back premier hopeful Przemysław Czarnk Jacek Sasin created the “Po Pierwsze Polska” association within Poland's PiS, drawing over 100 MPs to support candidate Przemysław Czarnk and pledge loyalty to Jarosław Kaczyński. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-ruling-pis-launches-new-association-po-pierwsze-polska-to-back-premier-candidate ### 2026-06-08: Poland's PiS rallies Czarnek and Morawiecki while Kaczyński appears in prosecutor’s office PiS leaders Czarnek and Morawiecki unite in Gorzów, stressing a fresh electoral message, while party chief Kaczyński appears before prosecutors in the revived “two towers” scandal. 6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/pis-leaders-czarnek-and-morawiecki-rally-supporters-ahead-of-2027-polish-election ### 2026-06-06: Jaroslaw Kaczynski remains top right‑wing figure as PiS support trails Jaroslaw Kaczynski remains the top right‑wing figure in Poland, but PiS polls at 23.7% lag behind the Civic Coalition's 29.3%, with other right leaders gaining modest support. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jaroslaw-kaczynski-remains-top-rightwing-figure-as-pis-support-trails ### 2026-06-06: Jarosław Kaczyński leads Polish right as President Karol Nawrocki’s trust wanes Jarosław Kaczyński tops a poll of Poland’s right, while President Karol Nawrocki remains the most trusted politician at 46 % but loses ground to Radosław Sikorski. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-leads-polish-right-as-president-karol-nawrockis-trust-wanes ### 2026-06-06: Jarosław Kaczyński named leader of Polish right in poll A poll of 1,057 Poles (May 28‑29) found Jarosław Kaczyński the clear leader of the Polish right with 38% support, ahead of Karol Nawrocki (19%) and Grzegorz Braun (5%). 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jarosaw-kaczyski-named-leader-of-polish-right-in-poll ### 2026-06-05: Polish 2027 election polls show KO ahead, PiS slipping Latest polls for Poland's 2027 parliamentary election put the Civic Coalition ahead of Law and Justice, with KO around 30‑35% and PiS about 24‑26% support. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-2027-election-polls-show-ko-ahead-pis-slipping ### 2026-06-03: Polish Civic Coalition Leads PiS in Latest IBRiS Poll IBRiS poll (29 May‑2 June 2026) places Civic Coalition at 29.3 %, PiS at 23.7 %, with a 5.6‑point gap; turnout expected at 64.7 %. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-civic-coalition-leads-pis-in-latest-ibris-poll ### 2026-06-01: Polish poll shows Civic Coalition ahead of Law and Justice A May poll in Poland gives Civic Coalition 33% support, Law and Justice 27%, with smaller parties ranging from 7% to 13%. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-poll-shows-civic-coalition-ahead-of-law-and-justice ### 2026-05-23: Polish poll shows split opinion on PiS prime minister candidate Czarnek May 2026 polls show Poles divided on keeping Przemysław Czarnek as PiS’s prime‑minister candidate, with about 40% favouring a change and a similar share opposing, amid rising party tensions. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polish-poll-shows-split-opinion-on-pis-prime-minister-candidate-czarnek ### 2026-05-16: Poland's Law and Justice leaders Morawiecki and Czarnek schedule joint Gorzow meeting amid internal rift Morawiecki and Czarnek plan a joint Gorzów meeting as PiS downplays internal tensions, with MP Cieszyński saying no shouting occurred. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/polands-law-and-justice-leaders-morawiecki-and-czarnek-schedule-joint-gorzow-meeting-amid-internal-r --- Cite as: Poland elections, party turmoil, polls and probes. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/polish-law-and-justice-party-grapples-with-internal-split-over-primeminister-candidate