# Pre-colonial Indigenous Australian population research

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/pre-colonial-indigenous-australian-population-research
> Updated: 2026-09-18T02:00:00.000Z. Sources: 20. Developments: 2.

New research published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour indicates that Australia’s Indigenous population, including Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders, was significantly larger prior to European colonization than previously estimated. Using computer modeling, archaeological data, genetic analysis, and landscape productivity reconstruction, researchers suggest the pre-1788 population may have been as high as 2.2 million people.

This figure is substantially higher than previous estimates, which ranged from 250,000 to one million. Researchers noted that earlier historical-based estimates may have been underestimated due to historical biases and the concept of ‘terra nullius’. 

The studies highlight a drastic demographic decline following the arrival of the First Fleet. Estimates suggest a population loss of approximately 93 per cent within less than 80 years, with only about 155,000 people remaining by 1861. This rapid decline is attributed primarily to disease, violence, and displacement.

Refined modeling specifically regarding a 1789 smallpox outbreak originating in Sydney indicates the epidemic may have caused between 40,000 and 220,000 deaths among Indigenous Australians in south-eastern coastal regions and along major river systems. This research, which involved the Gujaga Foundation of the Dharawal Nation, underscores the devastating impact of colonial exposure on First Nations communities.

## Claims

- The pre-colonial Indigenous population of Australia was approximately 2.22 million people in 1788. (corroborated by 12 sources)
- By 1861, 93 percent of the Indigenous population had disappeared due to the consequences of colonization. (corroborated by 12 sources)
- The study was published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour. (corroborated by 12 sources)
- Previous estimates of 250,000 to 1 million people were significantly lower than the new findings. (corroborated by 12 sources)
- Diseases, violence, and displacement were primary reasons for the population decline. (corroborated by 12 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-18: Indigenous Australian pre-colonial population estimated at 2.22 million

New research indicates Australia’s pre-colonial Indigenous population may have been 2.22 million, with a 1789 smallpox outbreak potentially killing up to 220,000 people.

16 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/australia-indigenous-population-was-much-larger-before-colonization-study-finds

### 2026-09-15: Indigenous Australia population was much larger than previously estimated

New research indicates Australia’s pre-European Indigenous population was up to seven times larger than previously thought, reaching an estimated 2.2 million people.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/indigenous-australia-population-was-much-larger-than-previously-estimated

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Cite as: Pre-colonial Indigenous Australian population research. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/pre-colonial-indigenous-australian-population-research