# Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/prediction-market-volume-and-kalshi-market-position
> Updated: 2026-08-31T14:10:28.000Z. Sources: 20. Developments: 4.

Following the 2026 FIFA World Cup, global search interest in prediction markets has returned to pre-tournament levels. Combined weekly trading volumes for the industry’s two primary platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have dropped below $10 billion for the first time since June. During the peak of the tournament in June 2026, the market experienced significant growth, with Kalshi processing $31.5 billion in volume—an 87% increase from May—and Polymarket posting $13.3 billion.

Despite the overall market contraction, Kalshi has maintained a dominant position among US-approved platforms. Regulated by the CFTC, Kalshi captured approximately 83% of notional trading volume among approved US platforms during June and July, attracting institutional and retail participants who avoid unregulated venues. To maintain momentum, Kalshi has introduced various promotional incentives, such as a $25 bonus following $25 in cash trades, targeting markets like the NFL preseason and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. These promotions remain subject to geographic restrictions in several U.S. states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, and Ohio.

In a significant expansion of its reach, Kalshi has partnered with Alpaca to integrate event contracts into Alpaca’s global brokerage infrastructure. Through Alpaca Derivatives LLC, a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant, Alpaca’s partners and users will gain access to Kalshi’s regulated marketplace, covering financial markets, economic indicators, weather, sports, and cultural events. This collaboration aims to leverage Alpaca’s access to approximately 14 million brokerage accounts worldwide, allowing users to access diverse markets through existing technology stacks.

## Timeline

### 2026-08-31: Alpaca partners with Kalshi to offer prediction market event contracts

Alpaca is partnering with Kalshi to offer prediction market event contracts through its global brokerage infrastructure, reaching approximately 14 million accounts across 300 financial institutions.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/alpaca-partners-with-kalshi-to-offer-prediction-market-event-contracts

### 2026-08-21: Kalshi and Polymarket offer bonuses for prediction market trading

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are offering sign-up bonuses to new users for trading on sports, politics, and other real-world event outcomes.

9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/kalshi-offers-promotional-bonuses-for-prediction-market-traders

### 2026-08-17: Kalshi dominates prediction market volume as post-World Cup interest declines

Prediction market trading volumes have dropped below $10 billion weekly following the 2026 FIFA World Cup, though CFTC-regulated Kalshi has secured a dominant share of the US market.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/kalshi-dominates-prediction-market-volume-as-post-world-cup-interest-declines

### 2026-08-16: Kalshi offers trading bonuses for new prediction market users

Prediction market platform Kalshi is offering new users a $25 bonus upon completing $25 in trades across various markets, including sports, politics, and finance.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/kalshi-offers-trading-bonuses-for-new-prediction-market-users

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Cite as: Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/prediction-market-volume-and-kalshi-market-position