# Republican 2028 primary: Vance leads, Cruz and Rubio in mix > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/republican-2028-primary-polling > Updated: 2026-09-11T07:08:55.000Z. Sources: 102. Developments: 14. By mid-September 2026, the Republican struggle for the 2028 nomination has centered on potential successors to the MAGA era. While Vice President JD Vance has maintained a lead in primary polling, new data highlights the gap between the frontrunners; a Financial Times poll indicated 42% of Republican voters favor Vance, compared to 18% for Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio, who has taken on significant responsibilities within the current administration, recently stated from Colombia that he ‘does not currently foresee entering a race.’ This follows previous speculation that Rubio might step aside if Vance pursues the nomination, though some commentators suggest Rubio could secure the seat with little opposition if Vance declines to run. Senator Ted Cruz has reaffirmed his ambitions, stating, ‘It’s no secret that I want to be president.’ In an effort to align himself with the current movement, Cruz has signaled a shift from his previous rivalry with Donald Trump. During an appearance on the Fox News podcast ‘Hang Out with Sean Hannity,’ Cruz praised Trump’s aggressive political tactics, describing the former use of the nickname ‘Lyin’ Ted’ as ‘political genius.’ President Trump has addressed Cruz’s interest, describing him as a ‘very talented’ and ‘very good friend’ who ‘might’ pursue the presidency. Trump continues to maintain an ambiguous stance toward the 2028 cycle, occasionally wearing ‘2028’ apparel and joking about a third term, despite constitutional limits. During the Republican National Convention, Vance utilized his platform to reinforce his position as a leading figure of the MAGA era by focusing on traditional family values. Reports suggest Trump has privately expressed a desire for Vance to lead the party after 2028. ## Claims - Donald Trump told donors in a private Oval Office meeting that he wants JD Vance to win the 2028 presidential election. (disputed by 22 sources) - Trump publicly denied having told donors to back JD Vance, saying it is too early to decide. (disputed by 2 sources) - Trump asked staff about Vance versus Rubio during a Marine One flight in late May. (corroborated by 28 sources) - JD Vance has not confirmed his candidacy for the 2028 presidential election. (corroborated by 22 sources) - Trump has not made a public endorsement of any candidate for the 2028 election. (corroborated by 18 sources) - Trump has not publicly endorsed a successor and is still weighing JD Vance against Secretary of State Marco Rubio. (corroborated by 17 sources) - Six Trump advisers expressed uncertainty about Trump's final decision on endorsing Vance. (corroborated by 17 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-11: J.D. Vance emerges as key Trump successor in Republican Party Vice President J.D. Vance is positioning himself as Donald Trump’s successor, bolstered by Trump’s private support and successful fundraising, though he faces competition from figures like Marco Rubio. 11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jd-vance-emerges-as-trumps-successor-at-republican-convention ### 2026-09-04: Ted Cruz signals presidential ambitions while praising Donald Trump Senator Ted Cruz has signaled presidential ambitions, praising Donald Trump’s past political tactics as ‘genius’ despite their former rivalry during the 2016 campaign. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ted-cruz-signals-presidential-ambitions-while-praising-donald-trump ### 2026-08-30: Donald Trump discusses life after presidency amid 2028 ambiguity Donald Trump is increasingly discussing life after his presidency in 2029, despite maintaining ambiguous signals about a potential 2028 run, while Senator Ted Cruz openly expresses presidential ambitions. 20 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/donald-trump-discusses-life-after-his-presidency-ends-in-2029 ### 2026-08-26: Ted Cruz signals interest in 2028 presidential run Senator Ted Cruz has expressed his desire to be president, signaling a potential 2028 run and challenging the idea that the GOP has already settled on Vice President JD Vance as the party's successor. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ted-cruz-affirms-presidential-ambitions-for-2028 ### 2026-08-20: Errol Musk discusses J. D. Vance’s potential to succeed Donald Trump Errol Musk suggests Vice President J. D. Vance has a strong chance to succeed Donald Trump, noting Marco Rubio’s willingness to step aside for a potential 2028 Republican candidacy. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/errol-musk-discusses-j-d-vances-potential-to-succeed-donald-trump ### 2026-08-16: Marco Rubio and JD Vance face speculation over 2028 GOP nomination Political analysts discuss the potential 2028 Republican presidential rivalry between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, weighing the political risks and opportunities for both figures. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/marco-rubio-and-jd-vance-face-speculation-over-2028-gop-nomination ### 2026-08-11: Donald Trump backs JD Vance for 2028 Republican succession Donald Trump is backing Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio remains a competitive contender as polling gaps narrow. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/donald-trump-backs-jd-vance-for-2028-republican-succession ### 2026-08-09: JD Vance's political rise and the future of the Republican Party JD Vance's ascent to the vice presidency signals a transformation of the Republican Party, sparking an internal debate over the movement's future leadership and ideological direction after Donald Trump. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jd-vances-political-rise-and-the-future-of-the-republican-party ### 2026-08-08: Donald Trump reportedly favors JD Vance for 2028 succession Donald Trump has reportedly told donors he wants JD Vance to be his 2028 successor, though he denies having made a formal public endorsement. 6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/donald-trump-reportedly-favors-jd-vance-for-2028-succession ### 2026-08-05: Donald Trump signals support for JD Vance in 2028 presidential race Donald Trump privately urged donors to back JD Vance for 2028, but says it’s too early to endorse; advisers remain unsure and he still weighs Marco Rubio as an alternative. 39 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jd-vance-and-marco-rubio-vie-for-trumps-maga-mantle-ahead-of-2028-race ### 2026-07-26: JD Vance Extends Lead in 2028 GOP Presidential Race JD Vance leads the 2028 GOP race with ~48% support, despite a “Never Vance” smear campaign; Marco Rubio is closing the gap and is favored in betting markets. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jd-vance-leads-2028-gop-primary-as-marco-rubio-gains-ground ### 2026-07-21: Trump-backed candidates surge in Republican primaries as JD Vance eyes 2028 run Trump backs Andy Biggs in Arizona and other GOP candidates, while JD Vance prepares for a 2028 presidential run with Rubio's support, amid internal party tensions. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/trump-backed-candidates-surge-in-republican-primaries-as-jd-vance-eyes-2028-run ### 2026-07-17: Donald Trump voters swing toward Democrats, raising doubts for 2024 and 2028 races Polls show U.S. non‑voters shifting heavily Democratic and Trump supporters growing wary of JD Vance, potentially reshaping the 2024 and 2028 elections. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/donald-trump-voters-swing-toward-democrats-raising-doubts-for-2024-and-2028-races ### 2026-07-05: J.D. Vance leads Republican 2028 presidential poll with 35% support J.D. Vance tops a June 2026 poll with 35% support among Republican voters for the 2028 U.S. presidential race, while Kamala Harris leads Democrats at 29%. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jd-vance-leads-republican-2028-presidential-poll-with-35-support --- Cite as: Republican 2028 primary: Vance leads, Cruz and Rubio in mix. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/republican-2028-primary-polling