# Brazil 2026 race: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/rio-grande-do-sul-electoral-campaign > Updated: 2026-08-29T02:39:16.000Z. Sources: 85. Developments: 2. The 2026 presidential race remains highly competitive, with recent polling showing a tightening contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. While earlier Nexus data placed Lula at 39% in a first-round scenario against Bolsonaro’s 33%, a subsequent BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula leading with 39% but Bolsonaro increasing his share to 35%. In simulated second-round runoffs, the candidates remain in a technical tie, with Bolsonaro holding 46% against Lula’s 45%. New regional data from Quaest highlights significant geographic divides. In São Paulo, Bolsonaro leads slightly with 31% against Lula's 30%, and in the Federal District, Bolsonaro holds a 31% lead over Lula's 28%. Notably, Quaest reports that Bolsonaro has surpassed Lula for the first time in Minas Gerais in a second-round scenario, though recent data suggests the candidates are currently in a technical tie in that key electoral state. Lula maintains strong advantages in Pernambuco, while Bolsonaro shows strength in parts of Rio de Janeiro. Other candidates continue to influence the landscape. Writer Augusto Cury has seen significant growth, appearing in second-round simulations against Lula with 45% and showing double-digit support in various first-round metrics. Additionally, Meio/Ideia polling shows Lula at 38.4% and Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round simulations. Campaign strategies continue to diverge. Lula has engaged with the financial sector through meetings with business leaders in Brasília, while Flávio Bolsonaro has focused on a fiscal adjustment plan involving spending cuts and bureaucratic reductions. Voter decisiveness appears high, with 81% of those who have chosen a candidate stating their decision is final. ## Claims - In a simulated second-round runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 45.1% to 44.5%. (disputed by 3 sources) - In the first round, Lula leads with 37.1% of the vote, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 34.8%. (disputed by 3 sources) - In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 43.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro is second with 33.7%. (disputed by 2 sources) - In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro has 30% of voting intentions and Lula has 29%, according to Quaest. (disputed) - Datafolha reports a technical tie in the Southeast region with 46% for Flávio and 43% for Lula. (disputed) - In a second-round simulation against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 45%. (disputed) - Lula and Ronaldo Caiado are in a technical tie with 45% and 44% respectively in a second-round scenario. (disputed) - The TSE suspended a Lula campaign advertisement that linked Flávio Bolsonaro to criminal organizations. (corroborated by 6 sources) - Lula's campaign criticized Flávio Bolsonaro regarding a request for R$61 million from Daniel Vorcaro. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Roberto Cidade holds a 56% approval rating and a 24% disapproval rating in Amazonas. (corroborated by 4 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-29: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in 2026 presidential election polls Polls show a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidency, as candidates intensify campaigns and engage with business and legislative sectors. 85 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/rio-grande-do-sul-electoral-advertising-begins-for-state-candidates ### 2026-08-11: Rio Grande do Sul government to auction 10 state properties The Rio Grande do Sul government is auctioning 10 state-owned properties, including land and apartments, with bids ranging from R$ 51,900 to R$ 780,000. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/rio-grande-do-sul-government-to-auction-10-state-properties --- Cite as: Brazil 2026 race: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/rio-grande-do-sul-electoral-campaign