# Russia-Ukraine war strategic leak > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/russia-ukraine-war-strategic-leak > Updated: 2026-08-28T23:59:00.000Z. Sources: 4. Developments: 2. A leaked internal strategic analysis from Russia’s Sberbank, reportedly released by the hacking group ‘Black Mirror’, has outlined various potential outcomes for the war in Ukraine. Initial reports indicated the document identified a ‘Trump agreement’ as the most likely scenario with a 32% probability. This potential outcome would involve freezing the conflict without a formal peace treaty, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and lifting certain sanctions, while the U.S. would accept Russian control over four annexed regions. Subsequent details from the leak suggest that a decisive Russian military victory is considered unlikely, with only a 7% probability. The analysis highlights significant structural challenges, including massive monthly military casualties estimated between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel and a growing budget deficit exceeding 47 billion euros. The report concludes that the most plausible outcome is a freezing of hostilities within the next 6 to 12 months. ## Timeline ### 2026-08-28: Sberbank report estimates 7% chance of Russian military victory in Ukraine A leaked Sberbank report estimates only a 7% chance of a decisive Russian military victory in Ukraine, citing massive casualties, economic deficits, and the need for further mobilization. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/sberbank-report-estimates-7-chance-of-russian-military-victory-in-ukraine ### 2026-08-26: Russia-Ukraine war scenarios revealed in alleged Sberbank leak Leaked documents allegedly from Sberbank suggest a Trump-led peace deal is the most likely end to the Ukraine war, while analysts warn Russia may continue fighting to fully capture the Donbas region. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-ukraine-war-scenarios-revealed-in-alleged-sberbank-leak --- Cite as: Russia-Ukraine war strategic leak. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/russia-ukraine-war-strategic-leak