# Russian oil production and revenue decline > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/russian-oil-production-and-revenue-decline > Updated: 2026-09-27T04:30:00.000Z. Sources: 17. Developments: 6. Russia is facing a significant decline in its oil sector, with national budget oil revenues dropping 22 percent year-on-year in August to 326 billion rubles. In August 2026, crude oil production dropped by 160,000 barrels per day compared to July, falling to an average of 8.718 million barrels per day. This represents Russia’s largest single-month decrease since December and leaves the country 1.17 million barrels per day below its required production levels under the OPEC+ agreement. This downward trend is attributed to export restrictions and intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, with at least 22 refinery attacks reported in August alone. While Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak described production reductions as temporary due to unplanned repairs, the impact has led to domestic fuel shortages and bans on diesel exports. Despite these challenges, Russia remains China’s largest oil supplier. From January to August 2026, Russian oil exports to China increased by 18.1 percent to 77.65 million tons, with the total value rising 33.3 percent to $44.84 billion. In the natural gas sector, the Russian Ministry of Economy has revised forecasts downward. Natural gas production for 2026 is projected at 683.1 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 5.3 billion cubic meters compared to May projections. While maritime LNG exports are expected to rise to 35 million tons this year, this figure is 5.3 million tons lower than previous estimates. Additionally, the Kremlin has lowered its 2026 oil production forecasts to the lowest levels seen in 17 years. These shifts reflect an industry adapting to the loss of European pipeline gas markets, as the European Union plans to end all Russian gas imports by 2027. ## Timeline ### 2026-09-27: Russia oil production projected to hit lowest level since 2009 Russian oil production is forecast to hit its lowest level since 2009 in 2026 due to refinery maintenance and drone strikes on energy infrastructure. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-oil-production-projected-to-hit-lowest-level-since-2009 ### 2026-09-24: Russia reduces natural gas production and export forecasts Russia has lowered its natural gas production and export forecasts amid shifting ties with the West and the EU's plans to halt Russian gas imports next year. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-reduces-natural-gas-production-and-export-forecasts ### 2026-09-24: Russia forecasts 494 million tonnes of oil production for 2026 Russia projects 2026 oil production at 494 million tonnes and natural gas output at 683.1 billion cubic meters, reflecting ongoing shifts in global energy trade and European import policies. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-forecasts-494-million-tonnes-of-oil-production-for-2026 ### 2026-09-20: Russia crude oil output drops amid infrastructure strikes and rising exports to China Russia's August crude output fell by 160,000 barrels per day amid Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure, even as oil exports to China rose by 18.1 percent during the first eight months of 2026. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-crude-oil-output-drops-amid-infrastructure-strikes-and-rising-exports-to-china ### 2026-09-04: Russia faces oil revenue decline amid energy shifts Russia reports a 22% drop in oil revenues amid refinery repairs and production concerns, while President Putin affirms Russia's status as China's top oil and natural gas supplier. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-faces-oil-revenue-decline-amid-energy-shifts ### 2026-09-01: Russia cuts 2026 oil production forecast to 17-year low Russia has lowered its 2026 oil production forecast to 494.2 million tons, the lowest level since 2009, citing war-related impacts and drone attacks on refineries. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-cuts-2026-oil-production-forecast-to-17-year-low --- Cite as: Russian oil production and revenue decline. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/russian-oil-production-and-revenue-decline