# Russian political stability and election legitimacy

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/russian-political-stability-and-election-legitimacy
> Updated: 2026-09-21T17:39:05.000Z. Sources: 19. Developments: 2.

Ahead of the State Duma elections, analysts identified potential instabilities within the Russian political regime, noting the banning of the Jabloko party and reduced Kremlin engagement with pensioners. The election process was viewed as a mechanism to manufacture legitimacy through a controlled environment that systematically restricted opposition.

Following the elections, a significant divergence has emerged between official domestic results and the preferences of Russian citizens voting at embassies and consulates abroad. While the Russian Central Election Commission reported that United Russia won nearly 58 percent of the vote domestically, independent exit polls suggest a different reality for the diaspora.

The Vote Abroad project, surveying approximately 15,700 voters across 22 countries, reported that the liberal New People party received 43 percent of the vote, while United Russia received only 5.5 percent. Similarly, a survey by the Vesna movement and the Progress project found New People leading with 47.3 percent of the vote at all surveyed locations, leaving United Russia with just 2.8 percent.

In ten countries, including Armenia, Germany, and Finland, United Russia reportedly failed to meet the 5 percent threshold required to secure seats in the State Duma. Ivan Zhdanov, director of the Progress project, noted that while these votes may not change the Duma's composition, they demonstrate a reality that contradicts the image of widespread support for the current authorities. Furthermore, 83.5 percent of survey respondents expressed little to no trust in the official election results.

## Claims

- An exit poll by Vesna and the Progress project found New People won at every location surveyed with 47.3% of the vote. (disputed by 7 sources)
- The liberal party New People received 43 percent of the vote in exit polls conducted at 27 polling stations in 22 countries. (disputed by 6 sources)
- Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party received only 5.5 percent of the vote among Russian citizens voting at embassies and consulates abroad. (disputed by 6 sources)
- The Vesna and Progress survey reported United Russia at 2.8 percent among voters abroad. (disputed by 4 sources)
- United Russia failed to meet the five percent threshold for entering the Duma in ten countries, including Armenia, Germany, and Finland. (corroborated by 7 sources)
- The Russian Central Election Commission reported that United Russia received nearly 58 percent of the vote domestically. (corroborated by 5 sources)
- Ivan Schdanow reported that 83.5 percent of survey respondents expressed little to no trust in the official election results. (corroborated by 3 sources)
- Oppositionist Michail Chodorkowski stated that elections can serve as a measure of government support even if a change in power is impossible. (corroborated by 2 sources)
- United Russia lost votes in the majority of polling stations opened in cities abroad. (single source)
- The 'New People' party won the majority of votes in 18 out of 27 analyzed polling stations abroad. (single source)
- United Russia received 39.58 percent of the vote abroad, compared to a 58 percent national average. (single source)
- An exit poll by the Vote Abroad project placed New People at 43%, the Communist Party at 18.3%, and United Russia at 5.5%. (single source)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-21: Russian voters abroad favor New People party over United Russia

Exit polls show Russian voters abroad overwhelmingly supported the liberal New People party, contrasting with official domestic results that gave United Russia nearly 58 percent of the vote.

17 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-elections-serve-as-legitimacy-tests-amid-political-repression

### 2026-09-18: Russia faces potential cracks in regime facade ahead of elections

Political expert Regina Smyth identifies potential cracks in the Russian regime's facade ahead of State Duma elections, citing the banning of the Jabloko party and a lack of traditional Kremlin campaigning.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/russia-faces-potential-cracks-in-regime-facade-ahead-of-elections

---
Cite as: Russian political stability and election legitimacy. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/russian-political-stability-and-election-legitimacy