# Santa Catarina governor and Senate race update > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/santa-catarina-governor-race > Updated: 2026-09-17T14:47:00.000Z. Sources: 30. Developments: 10. The 2026 election cycle for the governorship of Santa Catarina remains centered on incumbent Jorginho Mello (PL), who continues to lead in recent polling. While an Instituto Neokemp Pesquisas survey conducted September 10–11 showed Mello at 51.2%, with João Rodrigues (PSD) at 24% and Gelson Merisio (PSB) at 15.1%, a subsequent Real Time Big Data poll conducted between September 12 and 16 presents a different distribution. In the Real Time Big Data first-round simulation, Mello holds 49% of intended votes, while Rodrigues follows at 15% and Merisio at 8%. However, Mello’s advantage increases in potential second-round scenarios: he holds 57% against Rodrigues and 66% against Merisio. This study, which interviewed 1,600 voters with a two-percentage-point margin of error, also touched on other races. In the Senate race, a technical three-way tie has emerged between Carol De Toni (PL) at 24%, Esperidião Amin (PP) at 20%, and Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 20%. Additionally, regarding presidential preferences within the state, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 52% to 26%. ## Timeline ### 2026-09-17: Jorginho Mello leads Santa Catarina gubernatorial race in new poll A Real Time Big Data poll shows Santa Catarina Governor Jorginho Mello leading the reelection race with 49% of votes, significantly ahead of João Rodrigues (15%) and Gelson Merísio (8%). 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jorginho-mello-leads-santa-catarina-gubernatorial-race-in-new-poll ### 2026-09-14: Santa Catarina gubernatorial race: Jorginho Mello leads in new polls Polling shows Jorginho Mello leading the Santa Catarina gubernatorial race with 51.2%, while João Rodrigues trails at 24%, needing 4.25% more to force a second round. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/santa-catarina-gubernatorial-race-jorginho-mello-leads-in-new-polls ### 2026-08-31: Carlos Bolsonaro shifts campaign strategy in Santa Catarina Carlos Bolsonaro has pivoted his Santa Catarina Senate campaign, using new rhetoric about being “reborn” in the state after facing backlash for an initial broadcast that focused on his Rio de Janeiro roots. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/carlos-bolsonaro-shifts-campaign-strategy-in-santa-catarina ### 2026-08-27: Santa Catarina gubernatorial election history warns against favoritism A retrospective of Santa Catarina's gubernatorial elections warns that political favoritism, including Jorginho Mello's current lead, does not always guarantee electoral success based on historical trends. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/santa-catarina-gubernatorial-election-history-warns-against-favoritism ### 2026-08-26: Santa Catarina Senate race shows technical tie between candidates A new poll for the Santa Catarina Senate race shows Carol De Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro in a technical tie for first-round votes, while Esperidião Amin shows strength in second-vote preferences. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/santa-catarina-senate-race-shows-technical-tie-between-candidates ### 2026-08-26: Jorginho Mello to take leave of absence for reelection campaign Santa Catarina's legislature approved Governor Jorginho Mello's leave of absence from August 29 to October 5 to focus on his reelection campaign; Vice-Governor Marilisa Boehm will assume office. 10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jorginho-mello-seeks-to-expand-legislative-coalition-in-santa-catarina ### 2026-08-15: Santa Catarina 2026 elections: Eight candidates launch campaigns Eight candidates have launched their 2026 campaigns for the governorship of Santa Catarina, with wealth declarations ranging from R$ 518 to over R$ 600 million. 15 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/santa-catarina-confirms-eight-candidates-for-2026-governorship ### 2026-08-10: Santa Catarina political alliances face testing ahead of elections As Santa Catarina's official campaign begins, political parties are managing complex alliances to support Governor Jorginho Mello and Senator candidate Esperidião Amin amidst a competitive gubernatorial race. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/santa-catarina-political-alliances-face-testing-ahead-of-elections ### 2026-07-29: Jorginho Mello Leads Santa Catarina Governor Race in Latest Polls Incumbent Governor Jorginho Mello leads statewide with over 50% support in Santa Catarina, while in the West region João Rodrigues holds a lead, according to two recent polls. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jorginho-mello-leads-santa-catarina-gubernatorial-race-with-618-support ### 2026-07-21: Jorginho Mello Leads Santa Catarina Gubernatorial Poll as Voter Awareness Remains Low Jorginho Mello leads the Santa Catarina governor race with 54.9% support, but 56.9% of voters remain undecided; analysts also critique Brazil's TSE and media poll coverage. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jorginho-mello-leads-santa-catarina-gubernatorial-poll-as-voter-awareness-remains-low --- Cite as: Santa Catarina governor and Senate race update. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/santa-catarina-governor-race