# Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone risk during El Niño > Developing situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-risk-during-el-nio > Updated: 2026-10-27T20:48:09.000Z. Sources: 3. Developments: 2. Meteorologists have forecasted an increased risk of tropical cyclone activity across the Southwest Pacific for the 2026–27 season, driven by a strong El Niño event. In the Southwest Pacific, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi anticipates between 11 and 15 named tropical cyclones. The Fiji Meteorological Office predicts that two to three cyclones may pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone, with some potentially reaching severe Category 3 to 5 intensity. While New Zealand faces a normal risk, decaying storms may affect areas facing the Tasman Sea. In French Polynesia, Météo-France has issued an alert for an “exceptionally high risk” of tropical cyclones and extreme weather. This is attributed to an El Niño phenomenon that has reached a “very strong” stage and may become the “most intense ever observed.” The Society Islands and the Tuamotu archipelago are identified as being at particularly high risk for violent winds, heavy rainfall, and strong swells. ## Timeline ### 2026-10-27: French Polynesia faces high cyclone risk due to intense El Niño Météo-France warns of an exceptionally high cyclone risk for French Polynesia's Society and Tuamotu islands due to a potentially record-breaking El Niño phenomenon. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/french-polynesia-faces-high-cyclone-risk-due-to-intense-el-nio ### 2026-10-13: Southwest Pacific faces increased tropical cyclone risk due to El Niño An El Niño event is expected to drive increased tropical cyclone activity in the Southwest Pacific, with Fiji facing potential severe Category 3 to 5 storms during the 2026–27 season. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/southwest-pacific-faces-increased-tropical-cyclone-risk-due-to-el-nio --- Cite as: Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone risk during El Niño. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-risk-during-el-nio