# Olive oil market faces climate-driven price surge > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/spain-olive-oil-market-crisis > Updated: 2026-08-14T15:55:02.000Z. Sources: 62. Developments: 18. After the 2025–2026 drought pushed farm-gate prices to about €3.5 kg⁻¹ and caused over €1.2 bn in losses, the Mediterranean olive-oil market began to steady. Spanish retailers reported June 2026 sales of roughly 120,720 t, and Deoleo noted wholesale prices falling from a €9.3 kg⁻¹ peak in January 2024 to around €3.9 kg⁻¹, improving predictability. The Ministry’s draft marketing regulation and public consultation aim to manage surplus stocks, while Tunisian imports of more than 80,000 t annually continue to pressure domestic prices. In early August 2026, a new wave of extreme heat, prolonged drought, and widespread wildfires struck Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and France, reducing expected fruit harvests. Producers reported fewer fruiting trees and lower-quality olives, prompting warnings that autumn olive-oil prices will rise sharply. In the United Kingdom, a litre of extra-virgin olive oil now trades above £7, and Czech retailers are seeing comparable price levels. By mid-August 2026, Spanish agricultural organizations, including ASAJA Extremadura, denounced an “artificial” market situation, alleging that speculation is driving prices while failing to cover actual production costs. While recent weekly averages for Extra Virgin Olive Oil in regions like Jaén and Andalusia have been reported between €3.33 and €3.44, analysts warn that continued water stress could further reduce the September harvest. In Italy, olive oil stocks reached 233,377 tonnes as of July 31, 2026, a 43.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025, though reserves fell 9.7% from June 2026 levels. The Italian Association of Olive Oil Mills (AIFO) has called on the Ministry of Agriculture to extend the current six-hour olive delivery window to at least 24 hours, arguing the current rule is “incompatible with logistical realities” amid market volatility. ## Claims - Extreme heat, drought and wildfires are damaging olive trees in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. (corroborated by 5 sources) - Olive oil prices are expected to rise further across Europe. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Olive oil yields are expected to be lower this season. (corroborated by 2 sources) - The Guardian reported that olive‑oil prices could rise again after a brief calm. (corroborated by 2 sources) - In the United Kingdom a litre of extra‑virgin olive oil costs over £7 (about 200 CZK). (single source) - In the Czech Republic a litre of olive oil sells for a similar price, higher in promotions. (single source) - Sarah Vachon, founder of Citizens of Soil, said lower yields will affect olive‑oil prices. (single source) - Walter Zanre, head of the UK branch of Filippo Berio, warned about monitoring losses due to drought. (single source) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-14: Italy olive oil stocks rise 43.9% amid calls for regulatory reform Italy reports a 43.9% year-on-year increase in olive oil stocks, while industry association AIFO urges government reform of olive delivery regulations to ease logistical pressures. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/italy-olive-oil-stocks-rise-439-amid-calls-for-regulatory-reform ### 2026-08-13: Spanish olive oil producers warn of market speculation and rising costs Spanish agricultural groups warn of market speculation and rising production costs in the olive oil sector amid heatwave-induced water stress and fluctuating market prices. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spanish-olive-oil-producers-warn-of-market-speculation-and-rising-costs ### 2026-08-05: European olive oil prices set to climb as heat, drought and fires slash crops Heat, drought and wildfires are cutting European olive yields, driving up prices in the UK, Czech Republic and beyond. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/olive-oil-price-set-to-rise-in-slovakia-amid-extreme-heat ### 2026-07-27: Spain's olive oil withdrawal rule and Brazil's growing imports shape 2026 market Spain proposes an automatic withdrawal rule for 2026/27 olive oil supplies, while Brazil, importing 9% of global olive oil, saw a sharp import rise in early 2025/26, with Portugal as its main source. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spains-olive-oil-withdrawal-rule-raises-sector-concerns-amid-growing-brazilian-imports ### 2026-07-21: Spanish grape and olive producers confront sharp profit declines Spanish grape growers face export delays and low prices, while olive farmers confront a 57% rise in production costs, leaving both sectors with shrinking profits. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spanish-grape-and-olive-producers-confront-sharp-profit-declines ### 2026-07-20: Deoleo says olive oil market steadies, prices drop and US demand climbs Deoleo reports that improved harvests have steadied the olive‑oil market, with Spanish prices halving since early 2024 and US demand rising, boosted by new squeeze‑bottle packaging. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/deoleo-says-olive-oil-market-steadies-prices-drop-and-us-demand-climbs ### 2026-07-20: Greek olive oil exports to South Korea set to rise, positioning Greece as third top supplier in 2025 Greek olive oil exports to South Korea jumped 65% in value to $4.15 bn in 2024, making Greece the third‑largest supplier in 2025 and focusing on premium virgin oil. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/greek-olive-oil-exports-to-south-korea-set-to-rise-positioning-greece-as-third-top-supplier-in-2025 ### 2026-07-18: Mediterranean olive oil output down 40% due to drought, study finds A study of 568 olive growers finds drought cut Mediterranean output up to 40%, with Greece and Italy hit hardest and nearly half reporting lower incomes. 7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/mediterranean-olive-oil-output-down-40-due-to-drought-study-finds ### 2026-07-17: Deoleo reports olive‑oil market stabilises after 2022‑24 price crisis Deoleo says olive‑oil prices have dropped from €9.3/kg to €3.9/kg as better rains improve supply, prompting market stability and a US demand boost, though climate risks linger. 13 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/deoleo-says-global-olive-oil-price-crisis-ends-as-supply-stabilizes ### 2026-07-14: Spain's olive oil market sees strong sales amid heat‑linked crop concerns Spain’s olive‑oil market has sold 82% of the 2025/26 crop, with stocks down and heat‑stressed olives threatening the next harvest, while low farmgate prices and speculative practices risk raising retail prices. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spains-olive-oil-market-sees-strong-sales-amid-heatlinked-crop-concerns ### 2026-07-12: Greek olive oil market faces low prices and export competition Greek olive‑oil sales are stagnant, prices low, export value down 17 % and competition from Tunisia rising; Greece blocked a proposal threatening Koroneiki oil, while production stabilises at 200‑230 kt. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/greek-olive-oil-market-faces-low-prices-and-export-competition ### 2026-07-08: Greece blocks EU move to restrict Koroneiki olive oil exports Greece secured an extension of the exemption for Koroneiki olive oil’s lower sterol levels, averting a trade restriction that could have hit up to a third of its olive‑oil output. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/greece-blocks-eu-move-to-restrict-koroneiki-olive-oil-exports ### 2026-07-07: Greek olive oil output to fall 18% as EU production dips, Tunisia steps up as supplier EU olive‑oil production expected to drop 5% in 2025/26, with Greece hit hardest at 18% and Spain down 9%; Italy rises 31%. Imports surge 24% led by cheaper Tunisian oil, while exports grow 6%. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/greek-olive-oil-output-to-fall-18-as-eu-production-dips-tunisia-steps-up-as-supplier ### 2026-07-06: EU agricultural outlook 2026 foresees falling olive oil output and tighter farmer margins EU 2026 agricultural outlook predicts lower olive‑oil output, stable cereal yields and tighter farmer profit margins amid higher production costs. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/eu-2026-farm-outlook-predicts-lower-olive-oil-output-as-portugals-milk-production-plummets ### 2026-06-30: Spain's olive growers face losses as olive oil prices plunge 75% of Spanish olive growers are losing money as farm‑gate prices dip below €4/kg, costs rise, drought cuts yields, and Tunisian imports add pressure. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spains-olive-growers-face-losses-as-olive-oil-prices-plunge ### 2026-06-25: Spanish olive oil sector faces price slump and calls for quality standards Spain's olive oil sector sees a push for better quality tasting standards while grappling with a price slump that risks making most orchards unprofitable. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spanish-olive-oil-sector-faces-price-slump-and-calls-for-quality-standards ### 2026-06-19: Spain's olive oil market under scrutiny as import controls disputed and new marketing rule proposed Spain faces criticism over alleged weak olive‑oil import controls while the government prepares a marketing rule to curb potential oversupply in the 2026/27 season. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spains-olive-oil-market-under-scrutiny-as-import-controls-disputed-and-new-marketing-rule-proposed ### 2026-05-25: Spain's olive oil sector hit by price collapse and extreme heat Andalusian olive growers face falling oil prices—extra‑virgin below €4 /kg—and a heatwave over 35 °C threatening flowering, prompting industry calls for cautious sales. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/spains-olive-oil-sector-hit-by-price-collapse-and-extreme-heat --- Cite as: Olive oil market faces climate-driven price surge. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/spain-olive-oil-market-crisis