# Abdominal fat and BMI as predictors of health risk > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/study-on-abdominal-fat-and-cardiovascular-risk > Updated: 2026-09-02T15:59:10.000Z. Sources: 26. Developments: 5. A large-scale study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology suggests that abdominal fat measurements, such as waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio, are more accurate predictors of cardiovascular disease and stroke risk than Body Mass Index (BMI). Analyzing data from over 260,000 individuals over an average of 20 years, researchers found that BMI fails to account for the distribution of body fat, particularly visceral fat surrounding internal organs. The research indicates that individuals with a normal BMI but high central adiposity face a 15% to 50% higher risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, including heart attack, stroke, and heart failure. Expanding on these findings, research in JAMA Network Open involving 1,900 U.S. adults suggests that measuring waist circumference, either alone or alongside BMI, can effectively identify excess body fat. By comparing various screening methods against highly accurate body fat reference standards, researchers found that simpler metrics like waist circumference alone provided accuracy levels similar to more complex frameworks in detecting health risks. Lead author Aayush Visaria noted that monitoring waist size can serve as a “practical early warning sign” for issues such as diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and certain cancers, potentially allowing for earlier intervention. Further research from Rutgers University involving 1,900 U.S. adults aged 20 to 59 reinforces these findings, specifically linking waist circumference to increased risks of heart disease and type 2 diabetes. Dr. Aayush Visaria suggested that even subtle changes, such as needing to loosen a belt, can serve as an early warning sign. While U.S. guidelines use thresholds of 35 inches for women and 40 inches for men to indicate increased risk, researchers emphasize these should be considered alongside factors like blood pressure and cholesterol. ## Timeline ### 2026-09-02: Rutgers University study links waist size to higher health risks A Rutgers University study suggests waist circumference is a vital health metric, as it identifies abdominal fat risks for diabetes and heart disease that BMI may miss. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/rutgers-university-study-links-waist-size-to-higher-health-risks ### 2026-08-31: Waist circumference measurement may detect obesity risks missed by BMI A Rutgers Health study finds that measuring waist circumference is a highly effective and simple way to detect excess body fat and health risks that BMI alone might overlook. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/waist-circumference-measurement-may-detect-obesity-risks-missed-by-bmi ### 2026-08-26: Waist circumference may be a better health indicator than BMI Medical studies indicate that waist circumference is a superior predictor of health risks, such as heart disease and mortality, compared to Body Mass Index (BMI) because it accounts for abdominal fat. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/waist-circumference-may-predict-longevity-better-than-bmi-in-older-adults ### 2026-08-13: Waist measurements predict heart disease risk better than BMI A study of 260,000 adults finds that waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio predict heart disease and stroke risk more accurately than BMI, especially for those with a normal weight. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/waist-circumference-may-predict-heart-disease-risk-better-than-bmi ### 2026-08-11: Abdominal fat predicts heart disease risk better than BMI A study of 260,000 people shows that waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio predict heart disease risk more accurately than BMI, especially for those with a normal weight. 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/abdominal-fat-predicts-heart-disease-risk-more-accurately-than-bmi --- Cite as: Abdominal fat and BMI as predictors of health risk. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/study-on-abdominal-fat-and-cardiovascular-risk