# Turkey inflation forecasts rise; policy calibration underway

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/turkish-stock-market-activity-shifts-from-a-major-bank-of-america-selloff-to-broader-gains-on-analys
> Updated: 2026-09-10T20:07:51.000Z. Sources: 215. Developments: 50.

In mid-August 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) revised its year-end inflation forecast upward from 26% to 28%, citing supply-side shocks and energy price volatility. TCMB President Fatih Karahan noted that while the disinflation process has slowed, the bank intends to maintain a tight and cautious monetary policy. Economic management, led by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, is reportedly considering a ‘calibration’ of this tight policy to provide relief to the real sector.

On September 2, 2026, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.84% in August, bringing the annual inflation rate to 31.51%. This figure exceeds previous year-end expectations. Key drivers included housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which saw a 39.77% annual rise, and transportation at 35.08%. The service sector's annual inflation reached 40.28%. Energy prices rose by 5.46% in August, driven largely by an 11.23% increase in fuel prices.

Discrepancies in data persist, as the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) calculated a significantly higher annual inflation rate of 49.03% for August. Additionally, DİSK-AR reported that minimum wage earners lost 6,196 TL in purchasing power during the first eight months of 2026. The reported figures will impact upcoming January 2027 salary adjustments for civil servants and retirees. Furthermore, the legal ceiling for rent increases in September has been set at 31.79% based on the 12-month average CPI.

## Claims

- The energy price cap rise alone is expected to add 0.5 percentage points to UK inflation. (disputed by 5 sources)
- The energy price cap increase is estimated to add approximately 0.44 percentage points to the inflation rate. (disputed by 3 sources)
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.84% in August compared to the previous month. (corroborated by 26 sources)
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate was 31.51% in August. (corroborated by 26 sources)
- The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 from 26 percent to 28 percent. (corroborated by 24 sources)
- The inflation forecast for the end of 2027 is set at 15 percent. (corroborated by 21 sources)
- The disinflation process has slowed due to supply-side pressures. (corroborated by 11 sources)
- The Central Bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved. (corroborated by 11 sources)
- The housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels group saw a 39.77% annual increase. (corroborated by 10 sources)
- TCMB changed foreign‑exchange conversion support rules effective 1 October 2026, linking support to firms’ added value and removing the foreign‑exchange non‑acquisition pledge. (corroborated by 8 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-09-10: Turkey rent increase rate set at 31.79 percent for September 2026

The legal rent increase rate for September 2026 in Turkey has been set at 31.79 percent, based on the twelve-month average of the Consumer Price Index (TÜFE).

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-rent-increase-rate-set-at-3179-percent-for-september-2026

### 2026-09-04: Turkey inflation hits 31.51% in August amid rising housing costs

Turkey's annual inflation reached 31.51% in August, with housing and services seeing significant increases. Minimum wage earners face rising purchasing power losses amid high living costs.

20 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-housing-costs-rise-amid-3151-annual-inflation

### 2026-09-02: Turkey inflation rate reaches 31.51% in August

Turkey's annual inflation rate reached 31.51% in August, according to TÜİK. The September rent increase ceiling is set at 31.79%, while ENAG reported a much higher annual rate of 49.03%.

75 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/inflation-trends-show-divergence-in-turkey-and-pakistan-for-august-2026

### 2026-08-26: TCMB revokes licenses for Payco and Junomoney

TCMB has revoked the licenses of Payco and Junomoney. Bank of America predicts a 100 basis point rate cut in October, while Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic outlook on Turkish banks.

21 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-banks-revise-deposit-rates-following-central-bank-interest-cut

### 2026-08-19: Turkish Exporters Assembly head calls for exchange rate to match inflation

Turkish Exporters Assembly President Mustafa Gültepe argues the exchange rate must rise with inflation, while Central Bank forecasts suggest single-digit inflation may not return until 2028.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-exporters-assembly-head-calls-for-exchange-rate-to-match-inflation

### 2026-08-17: Turkey may adjust monetary policy to ease pressure on real sector

Turkey may adjust its tight monetary policy by lowering funding rates, easing SME credit restrictions, and allowing the TL to depreciate in line with inflation.

7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-may-adjust-monetary-policy-to-ease-pressure-on-real-sector

### 2026-08-15: Inflation forecasts rise in Türkiye and the United Kingdom

Inflationary pressures are rising in Türkiye and the UK. The CBRT raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 28%, while UK inflation is expected to hit 2.9% following an Ofgem energy price cap increase.

21 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/central-bank-of-trkiye-survey-shows-rising-inflation-expectations

### 2026-08-13: Central Bank of Turkey raises 2026 inflation forecast to 28 percent

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 28 percent, citing geopolitical risks and supply shocks, impacting projected 2027 wage increases.

56 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/central-bank-of-trkiye-to-release-third-annual-inflation-report

### 2026-08-09: Turkey investment returns: Deposit interest leads monthly gains

TÜİK data shows deposit interest rates led monthly real returns in July 2026, while gold led annual returns. Banks are competing with rates up to 47% amid shifting inflation and pension forecasts.

12 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-financial-sector-faces-rising-borrowing-costs

### 2026-08-03: Turkey inflation eases in July as banks eye policy‑rate cuts

July 2026 Turkish inflation fell to 31.75% YoY, prompting HSBC and Deutsche Bank to forecast policy‑rate cuts to around 36% by Q4 2026.

11 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/hsbc-predicts-september-rate-cuts-and-sector-growth-for-turkey

### 2026-07-30: Turkey's Central Bank revises foreign‑exchange conversion support rules

TCMB overhauled FX conversion support rules, approved a crypto‑asset registry, released Q1 2026 financial data and reported $162.6 bn in total reserves, with gold over $100 bn.

28 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-signals-temporary-july-core-inflation-rise-as-energy-prices-surge

### 2026-07-22: Turkey's Central Bank Holds Policy Rate at 37% Amid Inflation and Energy Risks

Turkey's central bank left its policy rate at 37% in July 2026, noting modest inflation easing but temporary risks from energy and geopolitics; the dollar hit a record 47.34 per lira.

39 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-central-bank-to-announce-fifth-interest-rate-decision-of-the-year

### 2026-07-20: Turkey Central Bank to Keep Policy Rate at 37% in July 23 Announcement

Turkey's Central Bank will announce on 23 July 2026 that it will keep the policy rate at 37%, with analysts expecting no change. The same day, its Real Sector Confidence Index slipped to 101.2, while inflation

15 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-holds-policy-rate-at-37-ahead-of-july-23-meeting

### 2026-07-16: Turkey's Central Bank reports reserve boost and housing market shock

Turkey's Central Bank reported that earthquake‑driven migration boosted rental demand, reserves rose 2.3% to $163 bn, and housing price and rent indexes surged in June.

15 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-reports-23-rise-in-official-reserves-foreign-assets-jump-95

### 2026-07-15: Turkish TL deposits can outpace dollar returns if exchange‑rate rise stays below 34%

TL deposits at 36% interest can beat dollars if the exchange rate rises under 34%, while Turkish banks offer 32‑day rates up to 46% annualised.

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-tl-deposits-can-outpace-dollar-returns-if-exchangerate-rise-stays-below-34

### 2026-07-14: Turkish banks roll out interest‑free 100k TL loans as experts warn of credit‑approval mistakes

Turkish banks offer interest‑free loans up to 100k TL, while experts warn five common mistakes—like low credit scores and undocumented income—that can cause loan rejections.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-banks-roll-out-interestfree-100k-tl-loans-as-experts-warn-of-creditapproval-mistakes

### 2026-07-13: Turkish banks lift 1 million TL deposit rates as competition intensifies

Turkish banks raise 1 million TL deposit rates, offering net returns of 25‑32 k TL after 32 days; experts advise focusing on net yields amid fierce competition.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-banks-lift-1-million-tl-deposit-rates-as-competition-intensifies

### 2026-07-10: Turkey's central bank pledges continued tight policy as inflation eases

Turkey's central bank governor says inflation fell to 32.1% in June, lira demand stays strong, and tight policy will continue, with possible further hikes if inflation diverges.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-pledges-continued-tight-policy-as-inflation-eases

### 2026-07-09: Turkey's Lira Deposits Reach 11-Year High at 62% of Total, Says Finance Minister

Turkey's finance minister Mehmet Şimşek said lira deposits now make up about 62% of total deposits, the highest share in 11 years, marking progress in reverse dollarisation and rising investor confidence.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-lira-deposits-reach-11-year-high-at-62-of-total-says-finance-minister

### 2026-07-08: Turkey Central Bank reserves rise to $159.7 billion

Turkey's central bank total reserves hit $159.7 billion on 3 July, with gross foreign reserves up $7.7 billion to $61.9 billion and gold reserves rising to $97.7 billion; analysis outlines reserve composition.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-central-bank-reserves-rise-to-1597-billion

### 2026-07-07: Turkey's Central Bank Keeps Tight Policy as Deutsche Bank Predicts Inflation Rise

Deutsche Bank expects Turkey’s policy rate to fall to 35% by year‑end and the lira to weaken to 51 USD/TRY, while the central bank’s June report shows a slight slowdown in inflation to 39.4% amid falling energy

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-keeps-tight-policy-as-deutsche-bank-predicts-inflation-rise

### 2026-07-06: Turkish banks raise deposit rates and launch zero‑interest cash promotion

Turkish banks lifted July deposit rates to 35‑43.5% and Akbank launched a zero‑interest cash loan of up to 100 000 TL, available until July 31 2026.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-banks-raise-deposit-rates-and-launch-zerointerest-cash-promotion

### 2026-07-02: Turkey's banking deposits rise as foreign investors keep buying assets

Turkey's bank deposits rose 1.07% to 31.63 trn TRY, while foreign investors net bought $203 m in equities and $448 m in bonds last week.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-banking-deposits-rise-as-foreign-investors-keep-buying-assets

### 2026-06-30: Turkey's central bank overhauls reserve‑requirement rules for foreign‑currency deposits

Turkey's central bank revised reserve‑requirement rates for foreign‑currency deposits, removing an extra TL reserve and raising several ratios, effective 17 July 2026.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-overhauls-reserverequirement-rules-for-foreigncurrency-deposits

### 2026-06-28: Turkish banks raise deposit rates to over 40% after central bank holds policy rate

After the central bank left its policy rate unchanged, Turkish banks updated TL deposit rates, with five banks offering yields above 40% and many accounts paying between 38% and 47% on a 32‑day term.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-banks-raise-deposit-rates-to-over-40-after-central-bank-holds-policy-rate

### 2026-06-26: JPMorgan lowers Turkey policy rate outlook to 35% amid falling oil prices

JPMorgan cut its forecast for Turkey’s 2026 policy rate to 35% from 37%, citing falling oil prices after the US‑Iran cease‑fire and easing signals from the Turkish central bank, and expects 100‑bp cuts in Sept.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jpmorgan-lowers-turkey-policy-rate-outlook-to-35-amid-falling-oil-prices

### 2026-06-25: Turkey's central bank reports higher foreign reserves and surge in foreign stock buying

Turkey's central bank reported foreign reserves up to $59.5 bn, total reserves $157.2 bn, deposits up 0.86% to 31.3 trn lira, and foreign investors bought $465.7 m of stocks, the strongest since April.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-reports-higher-foreign-reserves-and-surge-in-foreign-stock-buying

### 2026-06-24: Turkey's inflation outlook and monetary policy signals ahead of July meeting

Turkey’s June inflation is forecast near 32 % YoY, core 30 %; Governor Karahan will not restart repo funding before the July meeting, and Minister Şimşek says inflation will keep falling slowly, with fiscal and

17 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-and-japan-central-bank-officials-forecast-rate-moves-amid-inflation-concerns

### 2026-06-22: Turkey’s Central Bank Outlook: Lower Inflation Expectations and Prospective Rate Cuts

Garanti BBVA sees lower inflation and potential rate easing; TCMB data shows five‑year low inflation expectations; business expects July and September rate cuts.

15 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-dollar-gains-strength-amid-fed-hawkish-signals-and-iran-oil-license

### 2026-06-19: ECB and Turkey's Central Bank Rate Outlook Diverge

Capital Economics sees Turkey cutting rates to 22% by 2028, while BofA predicts the ECB could raise rates three more times before easing in 2027, with inflation driving both outlooks.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ecb-and-turkeys-central-bank-rate-outlook-diverge

### 2026-06-18: Turkey's Central Bank reports falling reserves and modest economic gains

Turkey's central bank said reserves fell to $152 bn, inflation trends eased, confidence rose to 102, manufacturing capacity hit ~74%, and foreign investors shifted to bonds amid economic risks.

18 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-reserves-fall-to-1521bn-as-regulator-greenlights-new-participation-bank

### 2026-06-17: Borsa Istanbul swings on US‑Iran diplomatic shift, BofA trades heavily

Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul swung June 17‑18 as optimism from a US‑Iran pact lifted the BIST 100 and Bank of America’s big trades—selling Astor Enerji and buying Turkish Airlines—added volatility; the index opened

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/bank-of-america-sells-astor-enerji-shares-and-buys-turkish-airlines-in-turkish-market

### 2026-06-16: Turkey's Political Risk Ranked High as BBVA Cuts Growth Forecast

BBVA ranks Turkey among the world’s highest‑risk nations, cuts its 2026 growth forecast to 3%, raises inflation outlook to 30% and sees a 37% policy rate by year‑end.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-political-risk-ranked-high-as-bbva-cuts-growth-forecast

### 2026-06-14: Turkish Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate at 37% as Loan Costs Remain High

Turkey's central bank holds its policy rate at 37%; deposit and loan rates stay high and cuts are not expected until after September.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-central-bank-keeps-policy-rate-at-37-as-inflation-eases

### 2026-06-12: Federal Reserve rate outlook and Middle East tensions shape global markets

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see little chance of a Turkey rate hike; the Fed under new chair Warsh may stay hawkish. US‑Iran talks ease oil prices, while inflation data keep markets wary and SpaceX’s IPO boosts

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-and-us-central-banks-expected-to-hold-rates-amid-market-tensions

### 2026-06-12: Turkey's Central Bank faces high barrier to further rate hikes, analysts say

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs say Turkey's central bank is unlikely to raise rates soon, citing a high hike barrier and covert tightening via higher overnight borrowing costs.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-faces-high-barrier-to-further-rate-hikes-analysts-say

### 2026-06-11: Turkey's Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate at 37% Amid Rising Reserves

Turkey's central bank held its policy rate at 37% and reported total reserves climbing to $159.4 bn, while gold holdings fell.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-central-bank-keeps-rate-at-37-as-reserves-rise-to-1594b

### 2026-06-11: Turkey's Central Bank warns of geopolitical risks amid tight monetary policy

Turkey's central bank governor warned of rising geopolitical risks while reaffirming a tight monetary stance; markets reacted amid Middle East tensions and an upcoming ECB decision.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-warns-of-geopolitical-risks-amid-tight-monetary-policy

### 2026-06-10: Turkish Central Bank Holds Policy Rate at 37% Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns

On 14 June 2026 Turkey’s Central Bank kept its policy rate at 37%, citing modest inflation easing, ongoing energy‑price volatility and weak domestic demand, and confirmed a continued tight stance.

13 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-keeps-policy-rate-at-37-amid-inflation-outlook

### 2026-06-10: Foreign investors hit record share sales on Turkey's Borsa Istanbul

Foreign investors recorded a record $857 million equity sell‑off on Borsa Istanbul in the week to June 5, while in May they bought $39.5 billion and sold $40.3 billion, led by Astor Energy purchases and Aselsan

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/foreign-investors-hit-record-share-sales-on-turkeys-borsa-istanbul

### 2026-06-09: Turkey's Central Bank Expected to Keep Policy Rate at 37% Amid Inflation Pressures

Foreign banks expect Turkey's central bank to keep its policy rate at 37% amid core inflation near 32%, with a possible rise to 40% if risks increase; ING forecasts the year‑end dollar‑lira rate at 53.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-expected-to-keep-policy-rate-at-37-amid-inflation-pressures

### 2026-06-08: Turkey's central bank set to keep policy rate at 37% on June 11

Turkey’s central bank will decide on 11 June 2026 whether to keep its policy rate at 37% or raise it to 40%, with most analysts expecting no change.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-set-to-keep-policy-rate-at-37-on-june-11

### 2026-06-07: Turkey's Central Bank Holds Interest Rate Amid Global Inflation Data

Analysts flag Wednesday's U.S. CPI, Thursday's TCMB rate hold at 37%, and Friday's ECB outlook as key drivers of market moves, with the BIST 100 index expected to stay between 13,000‑14,000 points.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-holds-interest-rate-amid-global-inflation-data

### 2026-06-05: Turkish Central Bank Expected to Hold or Raise Rates Amid Inflation Pressures

BBVA sees a possible 40% rate hike by Turkey's central bank in June, while the TCMB prepares to announce its next policy decision Thursday, maintaining a cautious stance amid high inflation and geopolitical‑dr‑

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkish-central-bank-expected-to-hold-or-raise-rates-amid-inflation-pressures

### 2026-06-05: Bank of America drives buying in Turkish consumer and energy stocks while offloading defense shares

Bank of America bought Coca‑Cola İçecek and other consumer/energy stocks on Borsa Istanbul, while selling heavily in Aselsan and other defense shares; overall cash inflows favored large‑cap banks, energy and工业s

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/bank-of-america-drives-buying-in-turkish-consumer-and-energy-stocks-while-offloading-defense-shares

### 2026-05-31: Turkey's central bank and US Fed set June interest‑rate announcement dates

Turkey’s central bank will announce its June 11 rate decision, while the US Fed is set to release its June 17 decision, both amid heightened geopolitical and inflation concerns.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-and-us-fed-set-june-interestrate-announcement-dates

### 2026-05-25: Turkey's central bank likely to raise rates amid inflation and political turmoil

Turkish markets bet on a rate hike at the June 11 CBRT meeting, with swaps indicating ~41.75% funding costs as inflation, high energy prices and a political crisis pressure the lira.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-likely-to-raise-rates-amid-inflation-and-political-turmoil

### 2026-05-15: Turkey and Northern Cyprus call for inflation‑targeting as central‑bank policies face criticism

Economists and politicians in Turkey and Northern Cyprus urge inflation‑targeting, criticizing current central‑bank policies.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkey-and-northern-cyprus-call-for-inflationtargeting-as-centralbank-policies-face-criticism

### 2026-05-14: Turkey Central Bank Signals Continued Tight Policy as Inflation Expectations Rise

Turkey’s central bank vows more tightening as inflation expectations climb, reserves hit $171.5 bn and BIST falls 1.9 %.

8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/turkeys-central-bank-lifts-2024-inflation-outlook-predicts-larger-pension-hikes

### 2026-05-11: Bank of America sells 5.3bn TL of Turkish stocks, Akbank top pick

BofA sold 5.3bn TL of Turkish stocks, led by Akbank; DSTKF fell to 2,423 TL on May 12 with high volatility.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/bank-of-america-sells-53bn-tl-of-turkish-stocks-akbank-top-pick

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Cite as: Turkey inflation forecasts rise; policy calibration underway. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/turkish-stock-market-activity-shifts-from-a-major-bank-of-america-selloff-to-broader-gains-on-analys