# University of Tsukuba longevity correlation study > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/university-of-tsukuba-longevity-correlation-study > Updated: 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z. Sources: 12. Developments: 2. Researchers at the University of Tsukuba, led by sociologist Shohei Okamoto, have conducted a 28-year longitudinal study investigating the relationship between an individual’s predicted life expectancy and their actual lifespan. Utilizing data from the Japanese Aging and Health Dynamics Study, a nationally representative survey of adults aged 60 and older, the research tracked participants who provided age estimates beginning in 1996. The findings indicate a correlation where individuals who predicted longer lives generally tended to survive longer, a result that remained significant after controlling for sex, age, socioeconomic status, and health. Data analysis revealed a tendency for participants to underestimate their longevity; approximately 59% of those studied lived beyond the age they had originally predicted. Recent updates clarify that the study is observational and, as of September 2026, remains available as a preprint that has not yet undergone formal peer review. While the association between self-prediction and survival is statistically present, researchers describe the relationship as modest. The study does not definitively prove whether positive expectations directly extend life or if participants are intuitively assessing their own health, lifestyle, or family history to form these estimates. ## Claims - A research team led by Shohei Okamoto from the University of Tsukuba conducted a 28-year longitudinal study. (corroborated by 3 sources) - There is a correlation between an individual's estimate of their life expectancy and their actual lifespan. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Individuals who expected to live longer actually achieved a higher average age. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The study used data from a nationwide representative survey of adults aged 60 and older in Japan. (corroborated by 3 sources) - A total of 2,447 participants were surveyed regarding their expected age of death. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Out of the group, 1,514 people died during the 28-year observation period. (corroborated by 3 sources) - Death records were obtained from official registries and information provided by relatives. (corroborated by 3 sources) - The correlation between life expectancy estimates and actual lifespan persisted even after adjusting for age, gender, socioeconomic status, and general health. (corroborated by 3 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-09-05: Japan study finds people can accurately estimate life expectancy A 28-year study in Japan shows that people can estimate their life expectancy with notable accuracy, with many living longer than they initially expected. 8 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/university-of-tsukuba-study-links-life-expectancy-estimates-to-actual-lifespan ### 2026-09-03: University of Tsukuba study finds people can predict longevity A 28-year study in Japan suggests people can accurately estimate their lifespans, with 59% of participants living longer than they expected. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/university-of-tsukuba-study-links-lifespan-predictions-to-actual-longevity --- Cite as: University of Tsukuba longevity correlation study. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/university-of-tsukuba-longevity-correlation-study