# 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook – Early August > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/us-2026-hurricane-season-preparedness > Updated: 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z. Sources: 70. Developments: 20. Mid‑May officials began urging coastal residents to harden homes, assemble kits and consider flood‑resistant flooring. State agencies in Florida, Texas, Virginia and the Carolinas released detailed emergency‑plan guidance, emphasizing evacuation routes, insurance and resilient construction. Early forecasts linked a strengthening El Niño to a quieter, more erratic Atlantic season. NOAA projected 8‑14 named storms, 3‑6 hurricanes and 1‑3 major hurricanes; Colorado State University (CSU) revised its outlook from 13 storms in April to nine in July, citing increasing wind shear from the “Super El Niño.” Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck warned Caribbean nations of heightened heat, flash‑flood risk and drought despite fewer cyclones. Observations through June showed only Tropical Storm Arthur, with record rain in Louisiana, and the first July system, Tropical Storm Bertha, forming under unusually strong shear. Federal staffing cuts at the National Weather Service and reduced FEMA funding raised concerns about forecast accuracy and response capacity. Insurers warned that rapid coastal development and rising property values could produce outsized losses even in a quiet season. By early August, CSU reaffirmed its below‑average forecast: nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, with land‑fall probabilities of 16 % for the U.S. coastline. NOAA’s outlook aligned, assigning a 55 % chance of a below‑normal season. On 4 August, Bertha intensified in the Gulf of Mexico and was projected to strike the Louisiana coast, with sustained winds of 40‑60 mph, up to eight inches of rain and storm surges of three feet from Florida to western Louisiana. Tropical‑storm warnings were issued for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, and officials warned of dangerous flooding, hazardous surf and capsizing risks, especially for New Orleans. ## Claims - El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, leading to fewer storms. (corroborated by 4 sources) - U.S. government scientists said El Niño arrived in June 2024, marking the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. (corroborated by 4 sources) - The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to have eight to fourteen named storms and one to three major hurricanes. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Insured losses from Atlantic hurricanes averaged about $30 billion per season between 2016 and 2024. (corroborated by 4 sources) - U.S. coastal county populations have increased by more than 40 million since 1970. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Home values have risen more than 70% and reconstruction costs more than 60% over the past decade. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Insurers are shifting risk assessments to focus on storm landfall locations and property values at risk. (corroborated by 4 sources) - Kimberly Roberts said a single landfalling hurricane could create an insured loss of unprecedented magnitude, even in an El Niño year. (corroborated by 4 sources) ## Timeline ### 2026-08-05: Colorado State University predicts below‑average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season Colorado State University and NOAA forecast a below‑average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only 9 storms expected and US landfall odds dropping to 16 % overall, citing a strong El Niño. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/colorado-state-university-predicts-belowaverage-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season ### 2026-08-04: Tropical Storm Bertha threatens New Orleans as 2026 hurricane season stays weak Bertha is strengthening in the Gulf and may hit New Orleans with strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge, while the 2026 hurricane season remains below normal due to El Niño. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/tropical-storm-bertha-threatens-new-orleans-as-2026-hurricane-season-stays-weak ### 2026-08-03: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Threatens US Gulf Coast and Mexico NOAA forecasts 8‑14 storms for the 2026 season, with high risk for US Gulf‑Coast states and Mexico’s critical August phase threatening multiple coastal regions. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-threatens-us-gulf-coast-and-mexico ### 2026-07-27: El Niño may not shield insurers despite a quieter 2026 hurricane season El Niño is expected to bring a below‑average 2026 hurricane season, but U.S. insurers warn that rising coastal development and property values mean even a quiet year could trigger massive insured losses. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-may-not-shield-insurers-despite-a-quieter-2026-hurricane-season ### 2026-07-21: El Niño linked to strong wind shear as Tropical Storm Bertha forms in Atlantic A developing Super El Niño is creating strong wind shear over the Caribbean, suppressing the Atlantic hurricane season, as Tropical Storm Bertha forms on Monday. 6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-linked-to-strong-wind-shear-as-tropical-storm-bertha-forms-in-atlantic ### 2026-07-15: El Niño suppresses 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasts show CSU forecasts a quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane as a strong El Niño creates high wind shear, lowering landfall risk. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/el-nio-suppresses-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecasts-show ### 2026-07-09: U.S. National Weather Service staffing cuts raise concerns ahead of 2026 hurricane season The U.S. National Weather Service faces staffing cuts and data gaps as NOAA forecasts a below‑normal 2026 hurricane season; Florida officials urge residents to prepare kits, evacuation plans, and safe shelters. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-national-weather-service-staffing-cuts-raise-concerns-ahead-of-2026-hurricane-season ### 2026-07-08: Colorado State University cuts 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast to well below normal Colorado State University now forecasts a quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season—nine named storms, four hurricanes, one major—due to a strong El Niño, cutting landfall risk to 17%. 6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/colorado-state-university-cuts-2026-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-amid-strong-el-nio ### 2026-06-29: Florida faces calm July with low hurricane risk amid El Niño conditions July is expected to stay calm over Florida, with low hurricane risk under El Niño; only one named storm (Arthur) has formed in 2026, and historic July landfalls are rare. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/florida-faces-calm-july-with-low-hurricane-risk-amid-el-nio-conditions ### 2026-06-28: Atlantic Hurricane Season Spurs Broad Preparedness Guidance The Atlantic hurricane season prompts experts to urge proactive planning, emergency kits, and evacuation strategies for families, seniors, and businesses to build resilience before storms hit. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/atlantic-hurricane-season-spurs-broad-preparedness-guidance ### 2026-06-18: Atlantic hurricane season forecast shows milder activity, officials urge continued readiness NOAA forecasts a milder Atlantic hurricane season, but officials warn that funding cuts and low preparedness could leave U.S. Gulf Coast states vulnerable to any unexpected storm. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-shows-milder-activity-officials-urge-continued-readiness ### 2026-06-10: Colorado State University cuts Atlantic hurricane season forecast to 11 named storms Colorado State University now expects 11 Atlantic named storms, five hurricanes and two majors, citing a strong El Niño that raises wind shear and lowers landfall probabilities. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/colorado-state-university-cuts-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-to-11-named-storms ### 2026-06-05: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for Below‑Normal Activity; June Hurricanes Rare in Florida NOAA forecasts a below‑normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing El Niño suppression. June hurricanes remain rare in Florida, with only six recorded since 1972 and the last storm in 2016. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-calls-for-belownormal-activity-june-hurricanes-rare-in-flori ### 2026-06-02: World Meteorological Organization explains Atlantic hurricane naming process The WMO details its rotating Atlantic storm‑naming system and predicts a below‑normal 2026 hurricane season with 8‑14 named storms. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/world-meteorological-organization-explains-atlantic-hurricane-naming-process ### 2026-06-02: NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, issues preparedness guide for Black families NOAA forecasts a 55% chance of a below‑normal Atlantic hurricane season and urges Black families to check evacuation zones and prepare emergency kits. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/noaa-predicts-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-issues-preparedness-guide-for-black-families ### 2026-05-30: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Predicts Below‑Normal Activity 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts 8‑14 storms, 3‑6 hurricanes and 1‑3 major hurricanes, citing El Niño and Saharan dust suppression; officials urge robust preparedness. 10 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-predicts-slightly-reduced-activity ### 2026-05-29: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and Safety Guidance NOAA forecasts a below‑average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with up to 14 storms, but warm waters may offset El Niño suppression. Virginia urges evacuation planning, emergency kits, and home hardening as any‑ 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-and-safety-guidance ### 2026-05-28: 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts quieter, erratic activity Forecasters predict a quieter but erratic 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with about five hurricanes expected; El Niño may suppress storms but raise heat and flood risks across the Caribbean and US Gulf coast. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-predicts-quieter-erratic-activity ### 2026-05-28: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prompts Preparedness Guidance in Florida and Texas Despite a quieter 2026 hurricane season forecast, Florida experts stress lingering storm risks while Texas DPS urges residents to prepare emergency kits and evacuation plans. 5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-prompts-preparedness-guidance-in-florida-and-texas ### 2026-05-18: Florida homeowners prepare for 2026 hurricane season with safety tips and flood‑resistant flooring Florida residents are urged to ready homes for the 2026 hurricane season, from emergency kits to installing waterproof flooring. 4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/florida-homeowners-prepare-for-2026-hurricane-season-with-safety-tips-and-floodresistant-flooring --- Cite as: 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook – Early August. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/us-2026-hurricane-season-preparedness