# US football predictive modeling and team ratings

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/us-football-predictive-modeling-and-team-ratings
> Updated: 2026-10-27T03:53:49.000Z. Sources: 3. Developments: 2.

Analyst Steve Makinen introduced an experimental set of projected point spreads for college football to better reflect recent team performance and address discrepancies between original ratings and the betting market. This new model aims to account for recent trends rather than relying on early-season data.

Subsequent reports for both the NFL and college football have provided statistical performance updates. In the NFL, team ratings have shown significant shifts, with the Seahawks holding the highest rating. Predictive models for both leagues have reported specific success rates, such as a 58.9% success rate for the NFL model over 107 matches and a 55.3% against-the-spread success rate for the college football full-season model over the last three weeks.

## Timeline

### 2026-10-27: NFL and College Football statistical performance reports

New statistical reports provide NFL Week 8 team ratings and college football Week 9 Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, highlighting predictive model accuracy and scrimmage-based performance metrics.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/nfl-and-college-football-statistical-performance-reports

### 2026-10-21: College Football Week 8: New betting rating models introduced

Steve Makinen has launched an experimental college football rating model for Week 8 to better reflect recent team performance and address previous betting market discrepancies.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/college-football-week-8-new-betting-rating-models-introduced

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Cite as: US football predictive modeling and team ratings. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/us-football-predictive-modeling-and-team-ratings