# US midterm election polling and election integrity reports

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/us-midterm-election-polling-and-election-integrity-reports
> Updated: 2026-10-03T12:19:54.000Z. Sources: 12. Developments: 3.

Recent polling data indicates a significant advantage for Democratic candidates heading into the upcoming midterm elections. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 12-point lead among registered voters for congressional elections, with 53% support compared to 41% for Republicans. Voters appear to favor Democrats on issues including the economy, gas prices, and foreign policy. Additionally, 45% of voters indicated their choice for Congress is a vote against President Trump, whose approval rating has reached 39%. Demographic-specific polling shows 67% of American Jewish voters intend to support a Democrat, a figure consistent with historical trends. In specific Senate contests, Democrats lead in Iowa and Texas. Regarding election integrity, federal officials from the Department of Justice and Homeland Security reported that efforts to identify noncitizen voting have resulted in approximately 1,600 cases and 160 arrests. Experts stated these figures represent a very small fraction of the nation’s 200 million active registered voters. Newer data from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research suggests voters are increasingly favoring Democrats on the cost of living and healthcare, with 38% believing Democrats are better equipped to handle costs compared to 27% for Republicans. However, the polling also reveals widespread cynicism, as few registered voters believe either major party is capable of solving national problems. While frustration with the Republican Party is growing, voters remain skeptical that Democrats possess long-term solutions. Democratic strength is also appearing in Senate and gubernatorial projections. In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton is tied with Republican Senator Roger Marshall in some surveys, drawing support from registered Republicans. Similar crossover trends are noted in Iowa, Alaska, and Georgia. Furthermore, Democrats may win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010; while Republicans hold a 26-24 advantage, thirteen races are highly competitive.

## Timeline

### 2026-10-03: US voters favor Democrats on key issues amid widespread party distrust

An AP-NORC poll shows Democrats gaining ground on issues like the cost of living, though voters remain deeply cynical about both parties' ability to solve major national problems.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-voters-favor-democrats-on-key-issues-amid-widespread-party-distrust

### 2026-09-23: Democratic candidates lead in recent US congressional and demographic polls

Polling shows Democrats leading in congressional support and among Jewish voters, while President Trump’s approval rating stands at 39% according to recent Marist and Jewish Voters Resource Center surveys.

4 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/democratic-candidates-lead-in-recent-us-congressional-and-demographic-polls

### 2026-09-23: US voters favor Democrats in polls as federal officials report voter fraud arrests

A new poll shows Democrats leading in congressional preference, while federal officials report 160 arrests related to voter fraud cases amid the 2026 midterm election cycle.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-voters-favor-democrats-in-polls-as-federal-officials-report-voter-fraud-arrests

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Cite as: US midterm election polling and election integrity reports. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/us-midterm-election-polling-and-election-integrity-reports