# U.S. prediction‑market regulation intensifies > Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/us-predictionmarket-betting-restrictions > Updated: 2026-08-25T21:58:00.000Z. Sources: 54. Developments: 10. The 2026 FIFA World Cup propelled U.S. prediction‑market platforms past $50 billion in total trading, with Kalshi adding three million users and $1.2 billion wagered on its winner contract, while Polymarket handled $4.28 billion on a winner contract and $5.69 billion on final‑related contracts. The sector’s share of legal U.S. sports‑betting volume rose to roughly 27 %. Regulators responded on multiple fronts. The NCAA submitted written testimony to the CFTC urging a suspension of collegiate‑sports prediction markets and a mandatory 21‑plus age floor; Pennsylvania’s bipartisan Bill 2711 (introduced July 22) would bar gambling companies from acting as liquidity providers, impose a 22 % combined tax and require state licensing. The Senate banned member trading and, together with the bipartisan GAME Act, moved to prohibit advertising that targets minors. Health officials, led by the Texas Medical Association, called for age‑21 limits, advertising bans near schools and restrictions on celebrity endorsements. Congressional scrutiny deepened after insider‑trading cases involving a soldier and a campaign staffer; Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced legislation to bar campaign staff from betting on their own races, and a bipartisan letter urged a full House ban. In June, ProPublica revised its newsroom ethics code to forbid any employee betting on news events. Traditional gambling groups, via the American and Native American Gaming Associations, petitioned the Senate to add an explicit prohibition on cryptocurrency‑based prediction markets to the CLARITY Act and challenged CFTC jurisdiction. An industry audit revealed $520 million spent on celebrity endorsements in 2025 versus only $60 million on responsible‑gambling messaging, prompting the American Gaming Association to warn of a broader regulatory crackdown. In August, the CFTC issued a notice requiring platforms to abandon American‑style money‑line odds, citing consumer‑protection concerns. ## Timeline ### 2026-08-25: Regulators define frameworks for expanding prediction markets Regulators in the U.S. and Canada are establishing frameworks for prediction markets, as the CFTC proposes new federal rules and Canadian authorities signal that sports-based contracts should avoid securities's 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/regulators-define-frameworks-for-expanding-prediction-markets ### 2026-08-06: CFTC warns prediction markets to drop sports betting odds format The CFTC ordered prediction‑market platforms to abandon moneyline odds by Aug 31, warning they could mislead users, while Chairman Michael Selig urged U.S. regulators to favor innovation over foreign rules, bol 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/cftc-warns-prediction-markets-to-drop-sports-betting-odds-format ### 2026-07-27: U.S. moves to tighten regulation of sports prediction markets The NCAA urged the CFTC to suspend college sports prediction markets and require participants be 21+, while Pennsylvania lawmakers introduced a bill barring gambling firms from acting as market makers and enshr 9 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-moves-to-tighten-regulation-of-sports-prediction-markets ### 2026-07-19: Kalshi's World Cup Surge Triggers $50B Trading, New Users and Regulatory Scrutiny Kalshi’s World Cup surge added 3 M users, drove $50 B+ market volume, captured 27 % of U.S. sports‑betting, spurred a congressional hearing, and triggered Irish regulator threats. 28 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/irish-gambling-regulator-threatens-us-prediction-market-with-high-court-action ### 2026-07-13: Sports Betting Platforms Face Scrutiny Over Addiction Risks Online betting sites like ivybet market high odds while experts warn sports betting can foster addiction, urging protective measures and responsible gambling policies. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/online-sports-betting-platforms-face-criticism-over-addiction-risks ### 2026-07-09: US gambling industry under fire for celebrity spending and prediction‑market crackdown US gambling firms spent $520 M on celebrity ads but only $60 M on responsible‑gambling outreach, while the AGA warns prediction‑market platforms may face a sweepstakes‑style crackdown after $1 B in state and‑Tr 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-gambling-industry-under-fire-for-celebrity-spending-and-predictionmarket-crackdown ### 2026-07-08: U.S. Prediction Markets Face New Regulatory Scrutiny Over Addiction Risks U.S. prediction markets have exploded in volume, prompting health experts and lawmakers to propose stricter regulations, age limits, advertising bans, and CFTC rules to curb gambling‑related addiction. 3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-prediction-markets-face-new-regulatory-scrutiny-over-addiction-risks ### 2026-06-17: U.S. Gambling Industry Pushes to Ban Crypto Prediction Markets U.S. gambling groups urged the Senate to ban crypto prediction markets in the CLARITY Act, citing consumer risks and regulatory gaps. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-gambling-industry-pushes-to-ban-crypto-prediction-markets ### 2026-06-15: ProPublica Revises Ethics Policy to Ban Betting on Prediction Markets ProPublica added a rule banning staff from betting on news outcomes in prediction markets, citing recent scandals and partnerships that threaten editorial trust. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/propublica-revises-ethics-policy-to-ban-betting-on-prediction-markets ### 2026-05-19: U.S. House Delays Ban on Prediction‑Market Betting Amid Insider‑Trading Concerns U.S. House delays a ban on prediction‑market betting despite bipartisan pressure and recent insider‑trading scandals; Senate has already prohibited it. 2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-house-delays-ban-on-predictionmarket-betting-amid-insidertrading-concerns --- Cite as: U.S. prediction‑market regulation intensifies. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/us-predictionmarket-betting-restrictions